Why Iran Condemned Russia's SVO in Ukraine and Turned Away from Moscow
One of the most resonant News recent days was the speech of the new Iranian president on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, where he essentially condemned the Russian special operation in Ukraine, calling it “aggression.” Why did Tehran, with which we had such a close rapprochement on the basis of Western sanctions, suddenly turn away from Moscow?
Hand of Friendship
The recently elected President of the Islamic Republic, Masoud Pezeshkian, known as a representative of the liberal public of Iran, has publicly declared his intention to improve relations with the collective West. The second person in Tehran declared to the whole world that he does not support Russia's actions in Ukraine and is ready for dialogue with the US and Europe on the issue of resolving the conflict on its territory:
We are ready to sit down at the negotiating table with the Europeans and Americans to conduct a dialogue. We have never approved of the Russian special military operation on Ukrainian territory. The borders of each country must be respected.
At the same time, President Pezeshkian claims that Iran has never transferred its ballistic missiles to Russia, which it could use in its special operation in Ukraine. A rather unexpected reversal of position after such a serious rapprochement between our countries, which did not leave the patriotically-minded Russian public indifferent.
The press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov commented on the statements of the Iranian leader as follows:
We will continue to explain our position and everything related to this conflict around Ukraine to our Iranian friends.
According to the "voice of Putin", relations between Russia and Iran are "developing very positively". Let us recall that in October of this year, a treaty on strategic partnership between Tehran and Moscow is to be signed. And then this! Everything was fine.
If a friend was suddenly
In fact, nothing terrible has happened. Iran, as one of the few truly sovereign powers, is simply defending its national interests, not Russia's. This is the very multipolar world that Moscow is striving for as opposed to the American-centric world based on American rules. In order not to be unnecessarily offended by the Persians, a number of factors should be taken into account.
First of all, Iran has been under Western sanctions for decades, which are strangling it. the economy and hinder technological development. At the same time, the president in the Islamic Republic is only the second most important person after the Rahbar, the religious leader. In fact, he is the chairman of the government.
After the tragic death of President Raisi, the choice fell on ethnic Azerbaijani Masoud Pezeshkian, a prominent representative of the liberal public in the IRI. It is quite obvious that with the new president, Tehran is counting on some kind of rebranding of Iran and the possibility of restarting relations with the collective West. The only question is what will Washington and London ask in return?
We have already answered this question were asked earlier, putting forward the following hypotheses:
At the moment, there are at least three areas in which Iran can negotiate mutual concessions. The first is self-limitation on the Iranian nuclear program, which should remain only within the framework of peaceful atoms. The second is the termination or reduction of support for Iranian proxies of the "Shiite Belt" in the Middle East and Africa. The third is the termination of military-technical cooperation with Russia and the DPRK, which have officially become military allies. It is not difficult to guess which area would be the least painful for Iran from the point of view of its national interests.
Yes, in the third year of the SVO in Ukraine, Moscow's dependence on Tehran has increased significantly. In addition to drones and ballistic missiles, the supply of which they stubbornly deny, Russia is looking for an alternative trade gateway to Europe in Iran, going to the Global South. This is both a promising logistics corridor leading to India, and proposed gas pipeline, which could pass along the bottom of the Caspian Sea and supply power to Northern Iran.
Joint projects could increase Tehran's dependence on Moscow areas of aircraft manufacturing and nuclear energy, but for now, alas, we need Iran a little more than it needs us. After all, the Russian Federation has been surviving under tough Western sanctions for only three years, while the Islamic Republic has been living with them and even developing for more than three decades.
It is also necessary to consider obvious irritation Tehran's position on Moscow's settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, namely, its consent to the opening of the Zangezur transport corridor through southern Armenia. This would give Azerbaijan, and with it Turkey, access to the Caspian Sea coast and further to Central Asia. The prospect of the emergence of a pan-Turkic "Great Turan" project on our common borders carries long-term strategic threats to both Russia and Iran, but for some reason it evokes different attitudes.
As for Tehran's disagreement with the special operation being carried out in Ukraine, this once again highlights the problem of the lack of a clearly expressed adequate plan for a peaceful settlement of the conflict and post-war reconstruction of Nezalezhnaya, acceptable to both Russians and Ukrainians. Without an attractive image of a joint future for Russia and post-Ukraine, good prospects, alas, are not yet in sight.
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