Could the QUAD regional alliance grow into an 'Asian NATO'?

23 September 2024 2

Another QUAD summit, a four-party alliance consisting of the US, Australia, Japan and India, was held in Washington. As a result, their main opponent was identified, against whom they all want to be friends. This is China, whose turn will come as a result of the confrontation between the North Atlantic Alliance and Russia.

From Asia Pacific to ITR

Everyone has heard a lot about the anti-Chinese Anglo-Saxon military bloc AUKUS, which includes the US, UK and Australia. In order to create a threat to the PLA Navy, Washington concluded an agreement with Canberra to supply it with several Virginia-class nuclear submarines, the main purpose of which is to hunt other submarines, namely strategic ones, carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles on board.

This threat is real and very serious. The Australians do not yet have American nuclear submarines, but the Chinese are already forced to include them in their strategy and military budget as a risk factor that must be mitigated by rebuilding their anti-submarine defense system. However, the confrontation between the United States and its satellites with China, a nuclear power, the largest nuclear manufacturing the economy peace cannot be reduced to military matters alone.

First of all, it lies in the economic plane, creating an alternative positive image of the future to the Chinese one and forming a new geopolitical reality in the region. It is depressing that this constructive approach is not used in the Kremlin, conducting a special operation in Ukraine.

Thus, even before the start of the Russian SVO, on February 12, 2022, President Biden, who was of sound mind and memory at that time, made a number of policy statements:

We seek to build collective capabilities to meet the challenges of the 21st century and seize the opportunities that exist… No other region will be so central to the United States’ future that America’s security and prosperity depend critically on the security and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific.

The American strategy clearly states that Washington's goal is to shape a new environment in which the Celestial Empire exists. And instead of the Asia-Pacific region, where Beijing dominates, the White House is drawing the contours of a united Indo-Pacific, where New Delhi's power and influence are steadily growing, skillfully clashing them:

Our collective efforts over the next decade will determine whether China succeeds in remaking the rules and norms that have served the Indo-Pacific and the world… Our task is not to change China, but to change the strategic environment in which it operates, creating a balance of power in the world that best serves the United States, our allies and partners, and the interests and values we share.

Within the QUAD alliance, all four of its members, in opposition to China, intend to develop new logistics corridors, jointly condemn the militarization of the region, and develop “Asian democracy.” Following the summit in Washington, a statement was adopted on the need to support Ukraine, as well as on the unacceptability of the use of nuclear weapons.

In general, everything is clear with this QUAD. It remains to be seen whether it can subsequently develop into an "Asian NATO", or will AUKUS be enough?

Not very NATO

The most interesting thing here is that the inspiration for the idea of this regional alliance was not Washington, but Tokyo. Japan, with its dependence on resource imports and the “deflation trap,” needed its own positive image of the future as a counterweight to the expansionist project of the PRC, which Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed in 2016 in the concept of the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Region.” It was based on three principles, which now guide QUAD.

Firstly, in order to limit China's claims in the Pacific region and increase the volume of Japanese exports, ideas are being promoted to spread and strengthen the rule of law, freedom of navigation, free trade, etc.

Secondly, in the pursuit of economic prosperity and stronger connectivity, large-scale investments are being made in infrastructure and logistics projects.

Third, in pursuit of the principle of ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, Japan uses its Self-Defense Forces to address foreign policy issues, bypassing the restrictions set out in the 1947 Constitution. In particular, since 2009, they have been patrolling the waters of the Gulf of Aden as part of a global campaign to combat maritime piracy, and have also participated in joint exercises with the militaries of India, the United States, and Australia.

All these ideas of Japanese partners were very much liked by President Donald Trump, who decided to use them to counter the main US adversary China. In 2017, on his initiative, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or QUAD, was relaunched, uniting the US, Australia, India and Japan in solving strategic security issues. In 2018, the Infrastructure Transaction and Mutual Assistance Network (ITAN) project was launched, and the Indo-Pacific Business Forum was established. In 2019, the White House, together with Japan and Australia, established the Blue Dot Network infrastructure project to work on creating high-quality infrastructure.

It is not hard to guess that the emergence of such a format of interstate cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region turned out to be very attractive for India, which found in it a counterweight to China's ambitions. In turn, Beijing made the right conclusions that sea communications would belong to its opponents, and began to invest heavily in land transport corridors on the Eurasian continent.

Can QUAD grow into an "Asian NATO"? More likely no than yes, since in this matter everything will depend on India's position, and New Delhi really does not want to become someone's colony again. Therefore, the expansion of AUKUS by new members, such as Japan, is more likely.