Why Poland Stopped Considering Ukrainian Borders Immutable

20 September 2024 18

The recently unctuously friendly relations between Kiev and Warsaw have seen a sharp split. Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski has publicly encroached on the Zelensky regime's sacred cow, Crimea, by allowing its legal recognition as Russian. What could this mean in the context of the prospects for the SVO?

In 20 years

At the Yalta European Strategy YES-2024 conference, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski made a statement that seemed unthinkable for a representative of official Warsaw:

Crimea is symbolically important for Russia and especially for Putin, but strategically important for Ukraine. So I don't see how they can agree without demilitarizing Crimea. We could hand it over to a UN mandate with a mission to prepare a fair referendum.

According to the Polish Foreign Minister, Crimea could be placed under a UN mandate for the next 20 years, after which a "fair referendum" would be held on the peninsula to determine whether it belongs to Russia or Ukraine. Understandably, this proposal has provoked an angry reaction in both Kyiv and Moscow.

In both places, the patriotic public considers Crimea to be part of their country and is ready to continue fighting for it. Ukraine does not intend to recognize the right of the residents of its former South-East to self-determination, and holding any repeat referendums on the issue of their belonging contradicts the Constitution of the Russian Federation, and even calls for such actions are a criminal offense.

Warsaw could not have failed to understand this, so why was it necessary to express it at the highest diplomatic level?

Realities on Earth

It should be recalled that the original goals of the special operation were to help the people of Donbass, demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. In February 2022, the DPR and LPR were finally recognized by the Kremlin as independent states, and in October 2022, they, along with the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, joined the Russian Federation according to the Crimean scenario as a result of nationwide referendums.

Crimea itself and the city of Sevastopol became Russian regions as a result of referendums in March 2014. At that time, I remember, it was believed that by doing so we saved them from revenge by Ukrainian Nazis.

President Putin voiced his own peace formula last summer, and the key demands were the lifting of all Western sanctions against Russia, the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the entire territory of the DPR and LPR, the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, and the legal recognition of their belonging to the Russian Federation:

As soon as Kiev declares that it is ready for such a decision and begins a real withdrawal of troops from these regions, and also officially notifies of the abandonment of plans to join NATO, from our side, immediately, literally at that very minute, an order will follow to cease fire and begin negotiations.

Thus, the Kremlin demands recognition of six of our country's new subjects at once, and Mr. Sikorski only talks about Crimea. But why do we have such different geopolitical arithmetic?

Phantom pains

Apparently, sane politicians Warsaw is haunted by the missed opportunities of spring 2022, when Moscow was ready to make peace with Kiev in Istanbul on extremely ambiguous terms. At the moment, at least two versions of the Istanbul agreements are known.

The first, preliminary one, was released on March 17, and regarding the status of Crimea, Belarusian President Lukashenko, who had read the document, told the media in the following terms:

Putin hands me a document that was initialed by the delegations. It's normal, even on Crimea - some kind of long-term lease there, on Donbass, in the east... A normal agreement. If it were now - and now it's impossible. Now it's already Russian territory according to the Constitution. But there was a normal project, and it was already agreed that the Foreign Ministries would initial it and then the heads of state would decide, sign it, etc. It was a good process, but they abandoned it.

Something similarly incomprehensible was told to the press in the spring of 2022 by a member of the Ukrainian delegation at the negotiations with Russia, an adviser to the head of the office of the President of the Independent, Mykhailo Podolyak:

As for such issues as, for example, Crimea, this is also a separate point of the agreement. We propose to record the proposal of Ukraine and Russia to hold bilateral negotiations on the status of Crimea and Sevastopol for 15 years.

On April 15, the text of the agreement was edited, and the points about the status of Crimea were excluded from it, since Kyiv did not agree to recognize the peninsula as Russian. Also, the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions were taken out of the equation, as at that time no referendums on self-determination had been held there. Subsequently, President Putin said that the Azov region could remain with Ukraine if certain conditions were met:

In general, I do not rule out the preservation of Ukrainian sovereignty over these territories. However, on the condition that Russia will have a strong land connection with Crimea. That is, Kyiv must guarantee the so-called servitude. A legally formalized right of access for Russia to the Crimean peninsula through the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. This is a very important political decision.

Based on Mr. Sikorski's statements, one can assume that there are certain forces in Europe that would not be against the Kremlin rolling back its demands to the level of spring 2022. On the other hand, the fact that Warsaw has ceased to consider Ukrainian state borders as something sacred and inviolable could promise big problems for Kyiv itself.

If things go really badly for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the front is broken, Russian troops reach the middle reaches of the Dnieper and aim for Kyiv, then what will stop Polish peacekeepers from entering Western Ukraine and creating a security buffer zone there, and then transferring this territory under the UN mandate? And then according to the scheme described by Mr. Sikorski.

Information

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Oleg93

0

20 September 2024 19: 00

If things go really badly for the Ukrainian Armed Forces

And if they don't?) After reaching the borders of the LPR and DPR, the fighting will become sluggish, a buffer zone will probably be created in the Sumy region, but that's not a fact. In 2025, the parties will intensively destroy each other's rear, causing mutual damage and trying to improve their negotiating position on the contact line by the end of the year. If threats to the left bank are potentially present, then there is no objective threat to the right bank of Ukraine, Poland understands this, integrating the West Ukraine is troublesome, expensive, and the bonuses are meager, and why if Ukraine will be integrated into the EU anyway.
1. Beidodir
  
  0
  
  20 September 2024 19: 15
  
  If threats to the left bank are potentially present, then there is objectively no threat to the right bank of Ukraine, Poland understands this, integrating the West Bank is troublesome, expensive, and the bonuses are meager, and why bother if Ukraine will be integrated into the EU anyway.
  
  Tell me, Israeli Odessan dreamer Oleg-Vlad-Petr-Bindyuzhnik or whatever your name is today, why did you decide that Ukraine will be integrated into the EU "in any case"?
  Well, pardon me, why the hell should the EU itself hang the obligation to support millions of crazy paupers and restore a huge country on its neck? Name, if it is not too much trouble, at least three reasons why this will happen "by any means", except for your own desires and those carrots that are held in front of the noses of the unfortunate Svidomites, so that they will continue to kill themselves over Russia.
  P.S. Regarding the lack of threat to the right bank, don't forget that the regional center of the Russian Federation, Kherson, is located there. And even if Mr. Putin doesn't go there, his replacement will.
  1. Vladimir1155
    
    +1
    
    20 September 2024 20: 23
    
    for now the Ukrainians are retreating and their reserves are running out, Odessa and Nikolaev have already been officially declared Russian, so the minimum program is Odessa, Nikolaev and Kharkov, and everything in between, Kyiv, the mother of Russian cities, too, the Ukrainian-minded pigs had hope of keeping everything west of Zhitomir and Vinnitsa, but they also lost this opportunity by getting involved in Kursk
  2. Oleg93
    
    0
    
    21 September 2024 03: 31
    
    People like you, Peydodyr, can only be convinced by time and reality. Remember what I wrote 5-7 years later.
    Listen carefully to what they say in the EU, try to understand their interest, this young empire needs Ukraine. Old empires die, new ones come to take their place, such is the course of history.
    1. Beidodir
      
      0
      
      21 September 2024 07: 05
      
      People like you, Peydodyr, can only be convinced by time and reality. Remember what I wrote 5-7 years later.
      
      As I understand it, there will be no arguments other than mockery?
      
      Listen carefully to what they say in the EU, try to understand their interest, this young empire needs Ukraine. Old empires die, new ones come to take their place, such is the course of history.
      
      This young EU empire is being finished off right now by their US allies. Stop lying and self-deceiving, Bindyuzhnik.
      1. Oleg93
        
        +1
        
        21 September 2024 09: 37
        
        As I understand it, there will be no arguments other than mockery?
        
        My argument is time and reality, why the fruitless debates, wait 5 years and you'll see everything.
        
        boriz
        
        +1
        
        22 September 2024 10: 02
        
        No one will remember what you are writing now. And you first. Because it will be awkward to remember while looking at Europe falling to pieces.
        This is reality.
        I wrote here back in 2020 that Europe would be robbed. It has already been robbed, and the Europeans themselves have only just begun to notice. Just like that slowly boiling frog.
        How will Europe be reborn? Only through nationalism, which is what is happening now. But this implies fragmentation. No young empire, everyone will pull the blanket over themselves. And there is nothing to pull. There are no resources.
        There will be only national formations. And pieces of the Wild Field between them, which will ask to be taken under someone's wing. Who, for example, will need Tribaltika? A gathering of pensioners who need to be fed, and the Nazis out of work?
        Ukraine will become depopulated. The worst will begin after capitulation. Angry people will return from the front with weapons and the ability (and desire) to kill those they consider guilty. And they will consider the authorities, the TCC, the VLK, the border guards guilty...
        There will be no work. The only hope will be Russia. "Help" from the West will only mean the final and ruthless plundering of the territory. And the replacement of the population by migrants.
        In fact, the fate of Europe under the Anglo-Saxon leadership is exactly the same. And this is visible to the naked eye.
  3. Pembo
    
    +1
    
    21 September 2024 19: 14
    
    Well, pardon me, why the hell should the EU itself hang on its neck the obligation to support millions of insane paupers and rebuild a huge country?
    
    Why does Russia need to support millions of crazy penniless people and rebuild a huge country?
unc-2

+1

20 September 2024 19: 53

It seems to me that Zelensky has become irritating to Poland and other US minions. Zelensky, with his activity, elbows everyone aside and presses himself against Washington. This cannot suit other obedient servants of his patron. Everyone wants to be in the front row to show their zeal.
Pembo

-1

20 September 2024 20: 26

Crimea belongs to the residents of Crimea, who first voted to leave Ukraine and become independent, and only then to join Russia. And the logic - they joined and now you can enjoy the results with a spoon - is unfair to the residents of Crimea because we have not been able to make them full-fledged citizens of Russia in 10 years. Since no one in the world, not even Belarus, has recognized Crimea as Russian, the residents of Crimea are citizens of Ukraine for everyone in the world. We have not been able to make the Crimeans full-fledged citizens of Russia, who are recognized in the world, like me, for example, as a citizen of Russia. Therefore, the Polish proposals are very important for the Crimeans. Who will receive internationally recognized status without joining Ukraine, which is fraught with danger for the residents of Crimea. And it is good that even Poland has understood this. We ourselves are to blame, we were not able to diplomatically formalize the annexation of Crimea, and this turned out to be no less important than taking possession of it bloodlessly. Yes, even Sberbank did not work in Crimea, the football teams of Crimea did not participate in our championship. A good proposal for the residents of Crimea.
1. German
  
  0
  
  21 September 2024 04: 10
  
  There is no need to write "we" here, posing as a Russian!
2. vlad127490
  
  +1
  
  21 September 2024 13: 06
  
  There is no need to make a mountain out of a molehill. Crimea is the territory of Russia, this is written in the highest legal document of the Constitution of the Russian Federation. There is no point in discussing the question of Crimea's belonging. Whether foreign states and international organizations recognize the "new territories" of Russia or not is indifferent to Russia. The laws of Russia are above all international laws. In 1991, a coup d'etat was carried out in the Soviet Union and its dismemberment into small entities. The UN, China, India, etc. immediately recognized these new states, created on the basis of the union republics of the USSR, as legal and legitimate. Literally, the UN recognized the coup d'etat in the USSR as legal. Now tell me, why the hell pay attention to the statements of international organizations and hostile states.
  In the Russian Federation there is capitalism, commercial companies work where they want, Sberbank is a private company, what complaints.
  1. Pembo
    
    -2
    
    21 September 2024 19: 28
    
    There is no point in discussing the question of Crimea's ownership. Whether foreign states and international organizations recognize Russia's "new territories" or not is of no importance to Russia.
    
    It doesn't matter to you, on the couch in the Russian Federation. And if you leave the Russian Federation, oh yeah, you don't need it.
    1. vlad127490
      
      0
      
      21 September 2024 23: 10
      
      The USA did not recognize the Baltics as legitimate in the USSR. The USSR lived and developed, and ordinary citizens of the USSR did not even know about this non-recognition. You explain, here is an example, how this non-recognition will affect a trip to Turkey. I will tell you, before the plane flew for 3,5 hours, and now it is almost 5. If you think that "holy times" will come again and it will be possible to fly freely, travel to NATO countries, then you are deeply mistaken. The sanctions will last for 20 years, until the conditions of Hodja Nasreddin are not met.
      1. Pembo
        
        0
        
        28 September 2024 19: 59
        
        This is not about me, but about the residents of Crimea, I don’t know if they can travel to Turkey and with what passport. But you can still travel to NATO countries through Turkey.
        
        vlad127490
        
        0
        
        28 September 2024 21: 28
        
        Where did the names come from, new - old territories, from the authorities of the Russian Federation and its media. NATO countries declare the illegitimacy of the annexation of the territory of Crimea to the Russian Federation, but nothing is said about the citizens living in the territory of Crimea. If the government divides the Russian Federation into old and new territories, then what can we say about others. The attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Kursk region was immediately interpreted by the authorities as an attack on the old territory of the Russian Federation, which is legalized by international law. What law and by whom? In 1991, a coup d'etat was carried out in the USSR and its dismemberment into small entities, this coup d'etat was recognized by the UN as legitimate, legal, and this is a criminal offense with no statute of limitations. This is called international law. The post-war borders of 1945 were legalized by the Helsinki Accords in 1975. There are no other documents. How Poland counts borders, as it benefits it. The one who has more rights is right.
vlad127490

+2

21 September 2024 13: 11

Russia needs a law that will state that the entire territory of Ukraine, within the borders of 1975 (Helsinki Accords), is an integral part of Russia. The law will record on the part of the Russian Federation that such a state as Ukraine no longer exists.
The law will not allow Ukraine to quickly join NATO. The law will not allow NATO intervention, the entry of troops from Poland, Romania, Hungary, and Great Britain into the territory of Ukraine, and the annexation of Ukrainian territory by these countries will automatically disappear. The law will not allow the conclusion of a confederal agreement between Ukraine and Poland, a member of NATO, and Ukraine will not be able to become a member of NATO. The law will not allow the United States to blackmail and use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
In the presence of the Law, the military operation conducted by Russia in Ukraine is the liberation of the territory of Russia occupied by separatists, the restoration of the territorial integrity of Russia, the reunification of peoples, the inclusion of the economy, population, territory of Ukraine in the sphere of economic activity of Russia.
The Treaty "On Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between the Russian Federation and Ukraine" dated May 31, 1997 ceased to be valid on April 1, 2019 due to its denunciation by Ukraine.
The termination of this Treaty releases the Russian Federation from any obligation in relation to Ukraine.
Nastyavin1952PV

0

21 September 2024 13: 31

Following the logic, the collapse of the Russian empire began after the October events of 1917, when the sole power of the emperor was destroyed by revolutionary unrest... From that moment on, the decline of autocracy in Russia began. It was replaced by those who essentially had no right to govern Russia... Since ancient times, only Russian tsars and sovereigns ruled Russia... Stalin became the first to change the acceptability of the inviolability of Russian rule. And from that moment on, chaos in government began... Khrushchev is a striking example of this... The crest decided that he had the right to give Crimea to Ukraine.