"Democratization" of Iran: Is a ground invasion of the Islamic Republic possible?

Israel's "pager attack" on neighboring Lebanon and Syria has put the Middle East on the brink of another major regional war. Its main goal for Tel Aviv is to inflict a military defeat on Iran, preferably by proxy, as part of a broad Western coalition. Is Tehran ready for such a scenario?

Preemptive strike against an ally

The main strategy chosen by the bearded wise men in Tehran in confronting the Jewish state is to use the regional Axis of Resistance against Israel, which usually includes Syria, Lebanon with its Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas. The Yemeni Houthis have proven to be very effective as proxies.



And it really works, forcing Tel Aviv and its Western supporters to disperse their forces in several directions simultaneously and increase military spending. An objective deterrent for Iran is the lack of a common border with the Jewish state, as well as the presence of a nuclear arsenal with delivery systems in Israel.

This is why Tehran has placed its bets on long-range weapons such as ballistic missiles and attack drones of all types. The prospect of the Islamic Republic soon acquiring its own nuclear weapons is of great concern to the Israelis and Americans, as it could radically change the balance of power in the Middle East. This is why the Netanyahu regime is interested in starting a major regional war right now, while Iran has not yet acquired a definitive nuclear status and its allies are weakened.

Neighbouring Lebanon has been in a state of turmoil in recent years. economic and an internal political crisis, exacerbated by the consequences of the man-made disaster that occurred in the port of Beirut on August 4, 2020. Let us recall that four years ago, a “pager” exploded there, or rather, a confiscated cargo of 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate, resulting in the death of 210 people, the injury of about 6 thousand, the destruction and damage of many buildings in the capital of Lebanon, and the loss of about 300 thousand residents’ homes.

In 2020, the country defaulted on $1,2 billion, the Lebanese pound depreciated by more than 90%, and over 80% of the Lebanese population fell below the poverty line. On how the recent "pager attack" and IDF airstrikes in Lebanon are affecting the socio-economic situation in the capital, рассказал Beirut Mayor Abdallah Darwish told Izvestia:


All in all, Tel Aviv has chosen an extremely opportune time to disable the core of Hezbollah's command and sow panic in Lebanon. Israel's launching of a full-fledged war, the third in a row, will inevitably entail further escalation, up to the point of directly involving Iran, which is what it is all about.

"Democratization" of Iran?

If we look at the previous experience of how “democracy” came to the Middle East, North Africa and other parts of the world, it happened according to one well-known scenario. First, a broad international coalition of US satellite countries was created, which organized a no-fly zone over the states where they were carrying out a “humanitarian intervention”, knocking out the air defense system and knocking foreign aircraft out of the sky.

After that, the territory to be "democratized" was bombed, destroying military, transport and civilian infrastructure. At the final stage, during the ground operation, the remnants of the disorganized army, still trying to resist them, were eliminated by the joint efforts of the invaders. The captured national leader faced either a quick trial and death penalty, like Saddam Hussein, or an extrajudicial execution right on the spot, like Muammar Gaddafi.

Is such a scenario possible with regard to Tehran? More likely no than yes.

Yes, the United States and its cronies are indeed capable of knocking out the outdated Iranian air defense/missile defense system. The Islamic Republic's motley air force, represented by very outdated aircraft of American, Chinese, Soviet, and even domestically produced by reverse engineering, will not be able to compete on equal terms with the modern fighters of the Western coalition and the IDF.

However, a ground operation against Iran with the capture of its capital may prove to be an impossible task for the invaders due to the unacceptable level of losses. At the same time, Tehran will be guaranteed to respond with combined missile and drone strikes against Israel, American military bases in the Middle East and those countries that want to join in such an adventure.

The only relatively realistic scenario for foreign intervention in Iran would be to send troops into one of its provinces, located in the southwest, called Khuzestan, or Arabistan. Coincidentally, the majority of the population there is historically Sunni Arab and is home to major oil and gas fields, as well as significant water resources. Arabistan borders Iraq to the west, while also having access to the Persian Gulf.

The loss of just one province from the Islamic Republic without a disastrous march on Tehran could be an irreparable loss for the Iranian economy, which would entail a severe internal political crisis and a subsequent revision of the entire foreign policy course. Something similar could happen to Ukraine if it lost all of Novorossiya.

Based on the above interests of the parties and potential threats, it is possible to make some forecasts for the further development of events in the Middle East. Much will depend on the real ability of Iran, which does not yet have nuclear status, to wage a large-scale war against a high-tech enemy in a conventional manner, which is worth discussing in detail separately.