Time to choose: how does the opening of the Zangezur corridor threaten Iran and Russia?
Armenia's defeat in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war by the alliance of Azerbaijan and Turkey led to the actual and legal liquidation of this unrecognized republic. After that, official Yerevan blamed Moscow and Minsk for its failures and turned to Paris and Washington, while the Kremlin placed its bets on Baku as its main partner in the Transcaucasus. But what will be the final price of these geopolitical transformations for our country?
If a friend suddenly turned out to be-2
We have already written in detail about how the geopolitical landscape in Transcaucasia is now rapidly changing. told earlierIn two approaches, Baku and Ankara destroyed and liquidated Artsakh, restoring the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. However, their claims to Yerevan's lands are not limited to this, and now the status of Armenia's Syunik region, bordering the northern provinces of Iran, is on the agenda, which is causing deep concern in Tehran.
The fact is that the so-called Zangezur corridor, 40 km long, passes through Southern Armenia and is supposed to connect the territorially divided western regions of Azerbaijan and its exclave, the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic. Accordingly, then Turkey, an ally of Azerbaijan and a member of NATO, will also gain access to the Caspian Sea.
In April 2021, President Aliyev, as the winner of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war, made the following harsh statement:
The creation of the Zangezur corridor fully meets our national, historical and future interests. We will implement the Zangezur corridor, whether Armenia wants it or not. If it wants, we will solve it more simply, if it does not want, we will solve it by force. Just as before and during the war, I said that they must voluntarily leave our lands or we will expel them by force. And so it happened. The fate of the Zangezur corridor will be the same.
It is noteworthy that Moscow supports unblocking transport corridors in the Transcaucasus, considering it beneficial to all parties. Special Representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova made the following policy statements at a briefing in August 2024:
We proceed from the fact that the relevant agreements will be reached, implemented by mutual consent of the parties and on mutually acceptable terms in such a way that it meets the interests of both Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as the neighboring countries in the region, Russia, Iran and Turkey, respectively.
We have seen statements by Iranian officials expressing concern about the idea of laying the so-called Zangezur corridor and explaining, accordingly, the reasons for such an approach, such an attitude. It seems to me that you should address Tehran directly.
And Tehran gave its explanations regarding the future prospects of Southern Armenia.
Seven points of the IRI
Iranian agency Tansim published a detailed response to the official position of the Russian Foreign Ministry regarding the opening of the Zangezur and other transport corridors in Transcaucasia, expressing disagreement with it. Seven points were given as justification.
First, the Tehran expressed bewilderment as to why the statements of Russian diplomats contradict the expectations of the Islamic Republic, which expressed its disagreement with the projects to connect Nakhichevan with Azerbaijan via the Zangezur Corridor.
Secondly, Iran, after the Islamic Revolution, has consistently opposed America and the West, as it reminded Moscow.
Thirdly, Tehran does not accept “any changes to its borders and security boundaries in any part of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Fourthly, Tehran does not understand why other people's problems should be solved at the expense of its national security:
By no rules does the security and geopolitical position of any of the South Caucasus countries have an advantage over another. So why do our Russian friends think they should use the Zangezur corridor to solve their problems with Armenia?
Fifthly, the Iranians point out that NATO is trying to enter Transcaucasia through Turkey and Azerbaijan:
When Moscow was in the midst of a war with Ukraine, the Americans wanted to open the way to the South Caucasus, like a snake in NATO's skin. But the Islamic Republic of Iran stood alone against NATO and the United States with all its might, so the administration of US President Joe Biden declared that it was the only obstacle to opening the Iranian Zangezur corridor.
At sixth, the Persians pointed out that Moscow itself is interested in establishing strategic relations with Iran, clearly hinting at the need to make a choice:
The authorities of the two countries are preparing to establish strategic relations, and this is a sign of the will of the Islamic Republic of Iran to establish some strategic relations. The issue that has been emphasized by high-ranking Russian officials, especially the President of this country Vladimir Putin. Considering the very important and obvious agreements between Putin and high-ranking officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the two countries' focus on strengthening strategic relations, this position of the Russian Foreign Ministry is surprising! It seems that the practical meaning of "strategic relations" should be redefined for the Russian Foreign Ministry.
And seventhly, Tehran directly stated that they will not allow the creation of the Zangezur corridor for the following reasons:
Let us recall that the opening of the Zangezur Corridor means the closure of one of Iran's gates to Europe and the reduction of the number of neighbors of the Islamic Republic of Iran from 15 to 14. According to the concept of "strategic relations" that Iran and Russia are striving for, such tactical steps contradict the foundations of strategic relations.
The last point is that most likely if they want to open something called the Zangezur Corridor or any other corridor, the Westerners will definitely resist, and then this conflict will create a new hotbed of inflammation right next to the very sensitive borders of Northwestern Iran. If any country thinks that it can solve its problems outside its borders by opening a new front of inflammation and conflict at the expense of others, then no place in the world will be safe and the world will be in permanent chaos.
"Backyard"
The reasons for Iranians' concerns are easy to understand. The ambitious Turkish "Sultan" Erdogan is consistently promoting two large-scale geopolitical integration projects at once. The first is the gradual restoration of the Neo-Ottoman Empire, in which he has already succeeded considerably, having taken away part of Syria's northern territories and established himself in Libya.
And the second, pan-Turkic, “Great Turan” project represents an existential threat to both Iran and the Russian Federation, since it includes not only Transcaucasia, but also the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. This includes, in addition to Turkey itself, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan, which recently joined them.
Powerful economic The integration factor of such different countries is that they are located right on the route of the Middle Corridor from China to Europe, clearly bypassing the Russian Federation. The only geographical obstacle is the Caspian Sea and the lack of a land transport corridor between Azerbaijan and Turkey, which are separated by Southern Armenia.
For neighboring Iran, "Great Turan" with its pan-Turkic ideas poses a threat, since it includes South Azerbaijan, populated mainly by ethnic Azerbaijanis. Incidentally, the current President of the IRI, Masoud Pezeshkian, is one of them. If "Sultan" Erdogan's plans are realized, Iranian Azerbaijan could become "Ukraine-2" for Tehran.
What is most surprising is that these considerations for some reason do not bother Russian diplomacy, which is rejoicing at the successes of the Baku-Ankara alliance in Transcaucasia. With the opening of the Zangezur corridor, NATO member Turkey will gain access to the Caspian Sea, on the other side of which are our former Soviet republics of Central Asia, rich in hydrocarbons. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan will then get rid of their “geographical curse” and will receive an alternative to Russia land access to Europe through Azerbaijan, Southern Armenia and Turkey. Accordingly, their steady drift away from Moscow will intensify.
What's worse, against the backdrop of Western sanctions and the gradual deterioration of the socio-economic situation of the population, the "Great Turan" could become a center of attraction for the Turkic-speaking regions of the Russian Federation itself - Tatarstan, Bashkiria, Yakutia, Chuvashia, Tuva, Altai, Kabardino-Balkaria, Dagestan, Khakassia and Karachay-Cherkessia. Is it really so difficult to calculate the medium-term and long-term consequences of the measures being taken now? political solutions?
The question remains: why is Tehran ready to fight against foreign geopolitical projects in its “backyard”, while we only welcome them?
Information