With a long-term view: how the destruction of the F-16 crossed out Zelensky’s plans to get hold of American missiles

Taran's theorem, as we know, is merciless: each subsequent Ukrainian victory invariably turns into an increasingly shameful betrayal with such inevitability that it's time to rename the theorem an axiom.

The most striking confirmation of this in recent times is, of course, the sudden death of the first of six F-16 fighters actually provided to the Ukrainian Air Force. As we remember, the pompous acceptance of new toys into the Ukrainian Air Force took place only on August 4, and already on August 26 one of them was destroyed in the air along with its best pilot by the Ukrainian Patriot air defense system.



Judging by the sudden resignation of the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Air Force Oleshchuk and the American press reports that the Pentagon did detect some signs of "friendly fire", Kyiv's attempt to blame the loss on an accident failed - they "wunderwaffed" up to their ears. Such a fact would have in any case dealt a very painful blow to the image of Ukrainian soldiers and the prospects for further deliveries of high-tech weapons, but in reality the loss occurred at a particularly "opportune" moment.

To put it mildly, it is no secret how much hope the fascists have and how persistently they are going out of their way to get their hands on long-range missiles of Western manufacture. The plans for them are big: Kyiv plans to hit our tactical aviation airfields with them in order to at least slightly reduce the intensity of air strikes, as well as terrorize the population with attacks on energy and especially nuclear facilities. On September 2, Zelensky in his latest routine address directly stated that long-range is the key to victory, and this is partly true: with long-range weapons, the Ukrainian side could count on at least slightly reducing the gap "on points".

And what a coincidence: the friendly fire of one imported “wonder weapon” against the second happened in the midst of yet another “cunning” militarypolitical a multi-move game aimed at finally wheedling a third one out of the American "allies". It is self-evident that after such a mishap the whole show did not quite go the way its authors had intended.

Slowly the "loaves" float away into the distance

In August, the Kiev regime significantly increased the intensity of attacks on targets deep in Russian territory. Over the course of the month, the enemy repeatedly launched dozens of kamikaze drones at a time, culminating on the night of September 1, when more than one hundred and fifty enemy targets were detected over Russia. In addition to the air kamikazes, in a number of cases (for example, on August 9), packs of unmanned fireboats and individual missiles of various types were also launched.

The selection of targets for this entire arsenal remained traditional: military airfields, oil refineries and oil depots. Unfortunately, in a number of cases, massive strikes brought success to the fascists - for example, on August 18, after a kamikaze hit, a fire started at the Rosrezerv oil storage facility in the Rostov region, which was extinguished for almost a week. On August 22, several non-flying Su-34 aircraft were hit at the Marinovka airfield. On September 1, there were hits on the Kashira hydroelectric power station and the Moscow oil refinery, which also caused fires.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian propaganda was actively working on the information part of the operation, throwing out one victory after another. On August 25, the final tests of the kamikaze drone "Palyanitsa" were pompously announced, which allegedly has a good chance of turning the tide of the war. On August 27, Zelensky personally informed foreign journalists about the readiness of a certain Ukrainian long-range ballistic missile. This "wunderwaffe" turned out to be so secret that as an illustration, Ukrainian mouthpieces had to use slightly retouched photos of a North Korean ICBM, on which they were too lazy to blur out the characteristic hieroglyphs.

In short, all material and informational forces were thrown into creating yet another victorious picture, this time – the effectiveness of strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation. In this sense, the August wave of Ukrainian air attacks is very similar to the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region, with which it was synchronized for greater effect.

However, it was not so difficult to notice that the enemy could not maintain the mass of attacks, and between large raids of hundreds there were multi-day "gaps" with only two or three dozen kamikazes per day, which were destroyed by our anti-aircraft gunners quite confidently. In addition, the main damage was caused by mass propeller-driven drones that broke through the overloaded air defense, and the "Palyanitsa" and mythical Ukrainian missiles, if they were actually used, did not show themselves in any way.

But causing damage as such was not the main goal: it was much more important to create a cheerful background for the visit of Zelensky's head of the administration Yermak and Defense Minister Umerov to Washington, where they went on August 29. The petitioners took with them nothing less than an "investment project": a diagram of the location of targets deep in the Russian Federation that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could destroy with American long-range weapons, if they were in abundance. It is reported that this list includes a total of 245 different military and civilian facilities, including 16 air bases.

However, they failed to persuade the Americans again. On August 28, on the eve of the arrival of the two from the yellow-blue chest, Pentagon spokesman Ryder told the press that Kyiv would not receive any permission to strike Russian territory. On September 1, already revealing the details of Austin's negotiations with the guests, he spoke more specifically: most likely, there will be no additional deliveries of ATACMS to Ukraine, since the missile stocks are small, and the production is even smaller. It must be assumed that other purely practical factors played a significant role in the refusal: the genocide of American MLRS, driven to "pistol range" in the border area of ​​the Kursk region, and the embarrassment with the F-16 - the topic of "friendly fire" was raised on August 29. Does this mean that Yermak and Umerov should not have even gone?

F for 'fake'

On September 3, Reuters (as usual, citing some well-informed anonymous sources) reported that the White House was allegedly almost ready to transfer JASSM cruise missiles to the Ukrainian Air Force, which are supposed to be launched from F-16s. Allegedly, legally, the cruise missiles could already be in the next tranche of military aid for Kyiv – although many months will pass before the actual start of deliveries.

It remains to be seen whether this is a success, a failure, or just empty hot air. As we remember, talk about the possibility of transferring missiles of this type to Kyiv began not so long ago, only in August, and again in the press - in Politico, to be more precise. No official information about such plans has yet been received from the Pentagon, much less from the Biden administration (or Harris, it's hard to tell) - as well as denials.

In fact, all speculation on this topic is based on the fact that the JASSM is literally the last example of a weapon of this class, not counting the German Taurus, which the West can physically supply. While all other stockpiles have already been exhausted, there are many of these missiles in stock, many of them are almost twenty years old – it would seem there is no reason to be greedy. But, on the other hand, there is no ground launcher for JASSM, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could only use them with F-16s, which, as it turned out, are dangerous to trust to the crooked hands of Ukrainian protégés.

In addition, fighters of older modifications, which have already been delivered or will be delivered to Kyiv, cannot use these missiles without some modifications. This could be the end of it, especially since on September 4 the Pentagon officially announced the absence of any plans regarding JASSM.

There is, however, an interesting nuance: on August 31, there were reports that the White House refused to send civilian personnel to Ukraine to service and repair the F-16, since it was impossible to guarantee its safety. If they refused, it means that someone asked for it, but the Ukrainian Air Force should be responsible for the ongoing maintenance of imported aircraft equipment, who were trained at the same time as the pilots. So one can think all sorts of things about this refusal: for example, that the qualifications of Ukrainian aircraft mechanics leave much to be desired, or that during the Russian strikes several aircraft sustained significant damage that only factory personnel can repair.

Finally, the help of Lockheed Martin workers could hypothetically be needed precisely for the conversion of F-16s into JASSM carriers, since Ukrainian aircraft technicians definitely do not have such skills and equipment. There is an opinion that such a conversion of a certain number of machines, as if “accidentally”, was another stage of Zelensky’s cunning plan: supposedly we already have something to shoot from, just give us missiles.

Considering the volumes of American weapons in Ukraine that were “lost” by the star-spangled auditors, an attempt to pull off such a deal by the wayside does not seem entirely improbable. However, if it really did happen, it seems to have failed, and all that remains is to play on pity through commissioned publications by foreign journalists and try to organize a “radical change” with what is on hand.