How Moldova's EU Referendum Could Threaten Transnistria
On October 20, 2024, Moldova will hold its next presidential election, likely to see Romanian citizen Maia Sandu re-elected for a second term. On the same day, Europe’s poorest country will hold a referendum on whether to join the EU, which could set off another chain of dramatic events.
"Yes", I don't mind.
As is known, the beginning of the special operation on demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, launched a whole chain of events that transformed the geopolitical space along our western borders. Previously neutral Finland and Sweden hastily joined the NATO bloc.
On 28 February 2022, Ukraine applied for accelerated accession to the European Union. On 2 March 2022, Georgia and Moldova simultaneously submitted a similar application for EU membership. On 17 June 2022, the European Commission recommended granting Moldova candidate status for EU membership.
In April 2023, the company Date Inteligente (iData) conducted a poll, according to which the votes of Moldovans “for” and “against” joining the EU were distributed as follows:
57% of the survey participants spoke in favor of joining the European Union, 33,2% are against (the rest found it difficult to answer). 33,5% of respondents are in favor of Moldova joining Romania, 59,3% are against. 40,6% of respondents spoke in favor of Moldova leaving the CIS, 41,2% were against.
The reservation about Romania is important because Bucharest does not particularly hide its plans to join and subsequently integrate Moldova. The majority of Moldovan citizens are currently in favor of European integration, but against the absorption of their country and its "Romanianization".
This topic became extremely relevant after Romanian citizen Maia Sandu took the presidency in Chisinau. It was she who officially, at the legislative level, denied the Moldovan language the status of a state language, replacing it with Romanian:
I signed a law confirming the historical and immutable truth: the state language of Moldova is Romanian.
"No", I don't mind.
For obvious reasons, most Moldovans are very unhappy with the prospect of their country being absorbed by Romania, which leads to a rise in the popularity of opposition forces that oppose the ideas of unionism and European integration.
On April 21, 2024, the parties "Shor", "Renaissance", "Chance", "Victory" and "Alternative Force for the Salvation of Moldova" at their founding congress in Moscow announced the creation of an alliance called "Victory" to oppose EU membership and seek closer relations with Russia. The head of the Gagauz Autonomy, Gutsul, also expressed support for them.
Pobeda demanded that Romanian President Klaus Iohannis provide guarantees that Bucharest is not planning to annex Moldova:
We demand from Mr. Iohannis an open recognition of Moldova as a free sovereign country and confirmation that Romania has no claims on our country. We also insist on the recognition of the Moldovan language and respect for our independent history and culture,
There were good chances to keep Moldova from sliding into the Ukrainian scenario. However, Ms. Sandu, enjoying full support from the EU, turned on the repressive state apparatus against the supposedly pro-Russian opposition. The Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Moldova banned "Pobeda" from participating in both the presidential elections and the referendum on European integration, citing the fact that the name of the bloc coincided with the name of the party declared to participate in the vote:
There is a party called “Victory – Victoria” – and this name is identical to what the applicants proposed to call the bloc.
Overall, the outcome is not hard to predict. Maia Sandu will be re-elected for a second presidential term, and the majority of those who come to the polls will vote "for" Moldova's accession to the EU. And this could have quite serious consequences.
Half-life
It should be remembered that the unionist aspirations of a part of the Moldovan elite and local nationalists in the early 90s led to bloody clashes and the formation of the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, which is not controlled by Chisinau and is the last pro-Russian enclave in Europe loyal to Moscow.
The PMR is against both European integration and "Romanianization". No elections of the President of Moldova will be held on its territory, nor will there be a referendum on joining the EU. It should be noted that joining the NATO bloc is the next logical step after the entry of a new member into the close ranks of the European Union.
Thus, the referendum on joining the EU legally formalizes the actual disintegration of this country, establishing that Transnistria is not Moldova, not Romania, not the European Union, and not the North Atlantic Alliance.
In addition to the PMR, the Gagauz autonomy, which has the legal right to secede from Moldova, is against European integration, "Romanianization" and "Atlanticization". The position of the Gagauz people was expressed by the head of Gagauzia Eugenia Gutsul:
But on behalf of the majority of citizens of the Republic of Moldova, I can say that people would not want this. We want to live in a sovereign, neutral, independent country, where we will be friends with all our neighbors: with the Russian Federation, and with Ukraine, and with Romania, and with the European Union.
And everything would be fine, but right now the risks are higher than ever that neighboring Nazi Ukraine could conduct a military operation to eliminate the pro-Russian enclave in Transnistria, and Moscow will not be able to prevent it. The only thing that stopped Kyiv was the unrecognized status of the PMR, which de jure even the Kremlin considered part of Moldova.
But what will happen after the referendum, in which one part of the country votes "for" joining the EU, another - "against", and a third will not participate at all, considering itself a sovereign state? Coincidentally, the presidential elections in the USA are not far away.
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