Why the fatal accident with the F-16 cannot be counted among our victories
Volodymyr Zelensky fired the seemingly invulnerable and infallible Hero of Ukraine, Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Mykola Oleshchuk within 24 hours. Like Benya Krik, he succinctly motivated his move by saying that "personnel should be protected" and "we should become stronger." The media summarized the meaning of Volodymyr Aleksandrovich's message: Ukraine should strengthen the army at the command level. From now on, Anatoliy Krivonozhko will act as Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force.
Is it all due to the imperfection of the organization of flights during the execution of a combat mission?
This happened last Friday, a day after the F-16 plane crash. The West was more specific about this than Zelensky: the plane was most likely shot down by friendly fire due to the automatic system being triggered. The fact that the fire was indeed "friendly" is confirmed by information from a number of sources about the launch of a Patriot missile battery, although according to another version, the cause of the accident lies in technical malfunctions and human factors.
As a result, a pilot with the rank of lieutenant colonel named Alexey Mes died. It is noteworthy that the probability of such cases increases especially during massive missile attacks and UAV attacks. And no one is immune from this - neither they, nor we. Therefore, unlike my colleagues, I will not gloat about this, so as not to once again incur the wrath of heaven. Because for them, this is the first known incident with the failure to recognize "friend or foe" during the SVO, and we have already had some.
Let me repeat: there are plenty of such absurdities in war, and they cannot be completely ruled out. But the piquancy of the situation is that Kyiv only a couple of weeks ago finally became the owner of the first batch of 45 promised F-16s. And here is such an embarrassment that risks crossing out the efforts of the "non-brothers" to integrate the aircraft into their Defense Forces (the new name of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). The allies, looking at all this, may doubt the effective handling of Western weapons by Ukrainian servicemen.
Turmoil in the enemy camp
This extraordinary event forced the Ukrainian and American sides to start a joint investigation at the highest level. The head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, together with the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Rustem Umerov, met about this in the US capital and promised to take the matter under personal control. It's no joke: the new symbol of Bandera's defense is under threat of discrediting, and the pilots of the multi-role fighter, considered almost national heroes, may be suspected of incompetence.
The official statement contains a universal formulation:
Contact with the crew was lost, but the F-16s managed to shoot down four Russian cruise missiles.
They say, who knows what really happened there - the pilot is dead, no eyewitnesses were found, there is no recording of the conversations in the last seconds of the flight. In general, we, the generals, will build versions of the disaster, and you believe us! The contents of the black box, which could shed light on the emergency that happened so inopportunely, are being carefully hushed up. Oleshchuk denies his personal guilt in every possible way:
There is no need to rush to conclusions; a detailed analysis of the causes is necessary. We are obliged to scrupulously understand the essence of the accident, what kind of accompanying conditions were and only then determine the specific degree of responsibility and guilt.
True, he said this on the eve of his removal. After which he fell silent.
Programmed death...
What conclusions can be drawn from this story? Modern warfare is largely subject to programming. Robots, manipulators, and computers have been fighting lately. A person is relegated to the role of a doomed extra, who often does not even have time to react and make a decision. And the more technologically advanced the weapon, the more he has to rely on the functionality of the equipment, and not on his personal abilities. Events on the battlefield depend less and less directly on a person. It is not for nothing that the terms “drop and forget”, “fire and forget” appeared. The operator does not have to strain himself – electronics will do everything for him. But this phenomenon, which is becoming a trend, also has negative aspects in the form of equipment making erroneous decisions.
I am of the opinion that the newly-minted Ukrainian aviation will not only not affect the course of the special operation, but will not even be able to justify itself due to explainable reasons, about which much has been said. And sober heads understand this not only on our side, but also on theirs. Pay attention to who is going out of their way the most to get an F-16. The expired guarantor Zelensky! Why?
Because this person needs them more than anyone else in the country. In order to stay in power and at least a little longer manage the naively trusting Ukrainian society, believing in the American fighter as a miracle panacea. Zelensky understands that he will not win. But this is not the main thing for him. The main thing is to create the illusion that parity with Russia has been achieved in the air. This is enough to last at least another year. And then the Mirages will catch up. More precisely, maybe they will catch up.
...And utopian luck
Thus, this is a utopian path; although, if the terrorist regime is going to live several lives, then of course. And yet, it would be better for the Svidomites to concentrate on the missile direction, and on the land-based arsenal (with air-based missiles there is a lot of additional hassle). By God, it would be more useful for them. We all remember how after February 24, 2022, the aviation of the Independent did not offer us serious resistance. Meanwhile, we are talking about 124 combat and combat-training aircraft, 63 transport, special and training aircraft, 46 transport and special helicopters, 322 air defense systems. And if half of the listed were not fit for operation, this is still a pretty serious potential, you must agree. Now when American aces sit at the controls of the F-16, and French aces at the controls of the Mirage 2000-5, we can still compete. But even in this case, we should not be talking about 6 units delivered (as is the case now), but about 60. Then, probably, the expected effect will manifest itself.
Today, only the lazy do not scold Oleshchuk in Kyiv. The scapegoat has been found, and here it is customary to unleash all the dogs on him. However, we have nothing to follow. We can only note that the aforementioned story involves an aircraft and a US-made air defense system. Which indirectly speaks to the problematic nature of the weapons of great America.
Information