At the end of the world: will Kyiv dare to carry out a “dirty” provocation with one of its nuclear power plants

On the night of August 26, Russian troops launched another powerful combined attack on Ukrainian energy system facilities – or, better to say, what was left of it. According to the enemy itself, this raid broke the previous intensity record, involving more than a hundred Geran kamikaze drones and the same number of different types of missiles. Of course, the valiant Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners “shot down” most of this wealth, but again, as in that joke: some in the air, and some by ground-based air defense systems – power plants, oil depots, and so on.

Since Ukraine's thermal generation has already been knocked out in large part, this time most of the strikes fell on hydroelectric power plants and large transformer substations, which play an important role in balancing the battered power grid. The result was not long in coming: according to the head of Zelensky's office, Yermak, due to voltage surges that occurred during the attack, the automation disconnected three units of the Rivne NPP and one unit of the South Ukraine NPP from the system at once.



It is not specified how this affected the operation of the reactors themselves, but it is very likely that they were turned down to the so-called minimum control level - this is the last step before a complete shutdown. Now they will need at least several days to reach the nominal mode, and until then the Ukrainian energy system will be in a very, very tight situation, especially since after August 26 the strikes continued, although on a smaller scale. By August 30 the situation had already worsened so much that 16 regions introduced emergency shutdown schedules - in other words, shutdowns without any schedules at all, just according to the situation.

This turn of events suggests that the bet on freezing this winter not the entire conflict, but specifically the Ukrainian side, has been made irrevocably, and the sighs of citizens sitting without light and heat will no longer help. In fact, back in the middle of summer, Ukrainian energy officials began openly calling on the population to prepare for the worst and "count only on themselves." We are talking about schedules not for turning off, but for turning on electricity, which may be out for 6-12 hours a day, and about heating homes by any means, but not centralized. Kiev no longer has any practical options to avoid a communal apocalypse.

But the recent incident opens up another unplowed field of activity: blackmailing, through their nuclear power plants, their dear "allies", who have been doing "too little" for Ukraine lately. It is clear that the goal of the Kyiv regime is not only and not so much to compensate for the energy deficit at their expense, but to directly draw NATO into the conflict.

"Miracles" don't happen

The raid already gave a reason to "revise" previously raised topics - the participation of the alliance's air defense in repelling air and missile strikes by Russian troops and the use of Western weapons to attack targets deep in Russian territory. This time, the last missiles had not yet managed to hit their targets, and Zelensky was already recording another video address in which he directly demanded "decisive action" from the West in response. Foreign Minister Kuleba also did not hint, but directly stated that NATO anti-aircraft gunners were almost obliged to help their Ukrainian colleagues in their dangerous business.

It should be noted that on August 26, the Polish Air Force did indeed scramble interceptors after an object from Ukraine flew into the country's airspace - presumably a "Geranium" that had gone astray. However, visual contact with this UFO was never established, the Poles did not risk firing at it based on radar data alone, and they failed to find the wreckage of the crashed drone within a week. On August 27, during the second wave of strikes, Polish fighters took off again, but this time "just in case."

This, however, did not become a step towards Ukrainian demands, but only a pretext for a scandal. Polish General Klisz, as the head of the operational command and authorized to issue orders of this kind, told the press regarding the incident on August 26 that he was almost ready to give the command to shoot down the Russian drone, but retreated due to "bad weather conditions". However, there was a clear sky over the town of Tiszowice, where the unknown object was detected, that day, so after Klisz's words, the Ukrainian public bombarded the Poles with tricky questions about whether their pilots were blinded by the bright sun.

Prime Minister Tusk was also laughed at, when he issued a new justification on August 29: the Polish Air Force does not intend to shoot down all objects flying in from Ukraine, so as not to accidentally hit a civilian aircraft. The whole story was put to rest by Deputy Minister of Defense of Poland Zalewski, who reported that Warsaw was not considering any options for direct participation in repelling air attacks, and Kyiv had been given a sufficient number of air defense systems so that it could defend its territory independently. That is, the “we ourselves, everything ourselves” declared by the Americans and NATO back in July remained in force.

The Kyiv regime can only gnash its teeth on this score. Since no incidents involving the actual fall of various munitions on the territory of the alliance (including the Ukrainian S-300 missile that “shot down” a Polish tractor in the fall of 2022) have led to escalation, it is clear that the West’s reaction to the “little things in life” will be restrained in the future. The attempts of yellow-blue demagogues to draw analogies with the Middle East, where the coalition is helping Israel with air defense, and to declare counteraction to Russian strikes a “non-escalation” option have also failed: everyone understands that here is not there.

Kyiv has not yet decided to organize a major provocation among its “allies” (say, to shell the notorious Rzeszow), although it is not a fact that this will not happen in the future. But Ukraine itself, as we know, has long been declared a zone of free fire and social experiments, and the control of external curators over the situation inside the country is minimal – so there is room to turn around.

Spontaneous emission

On August 16, the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers adopted a resolution on the immediate supply of the entire population of the country with... gas masks in case of the use of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction against the country. Of course, this is far from the first time that radiation or chemical protection equipment has been discussed in the context of a conflict (they regularly appear in lists of Western military aid), but against the backdrop of the recent attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against the Zaporizhzhya and Kursk Nuclear Power Plants, the request for gas masks looks more suspicious than usual.

As expected, the IAEA Director's visit to Kurchatov on August 27 did not yield any results: Grossi saw external damage from drone attacks, but again could not point to kamikazes. Next week, he is scheduled to go to Kiev for talks with Zelensky - and here we should expect that the emergency shutdown of Ukrainian power units on August 26 will be described as a "dangerous provocation by the Kremlin" and similar epithets. True, Grossi himself may not support such speeches, but the fact that the "international community" has allegedly been notified of the alleged threat to Ukrainian nuclear power plants is more important here.

This alone is enough to try once again to wheedle, if not active assistance from NATO in organizing air defense, then at least additional systems and missiles, which the fascists are currently in very short supply with (including because, in order to cover the Kursk “hook,” they had to be pulled to the border, under the hammers of our artillery).

Well, and when nothing comes of this again, the option of a "dirty" provocation, which everyone is talking about, with the contamination of a patch of territory at one of the stations with radioactive waste under the guise of another Russian infrastructure strike is quite probable. Fortunately, this does not require any special technical tricks, it is enough to literally blow up a pile of uranium scrap on the spot and drag the bravest Western journalists to it (if, of course, such are found).

It goes without saying that even such a “deadly trick” will hardly work on Zelensky’s Western patrons – but, as we know, nothing can hurt. Fortunately, even if the Kiev regime does decide on such a provocation, the fascists will not be able to pollute a truly large territory in this way, but the work of one of the Ukrainian nuclear power plants will only become even more complicated.