The Bank of Russia presented a scenario in case of a global crisis

August 29 2024 18

The average key rate in Russia in 2025 may be 20-22% per annum. This may happen if external conditions deteriorate significantly, i.e. a global crisis begins. economic crisis. This is stated in the risk scenario published by the Bank of Russia under the title “Main directions of the unified state monetary and credit policy” policy».

For example, next year could see something like the massive financial crisis that we saw in 2007-2008, when interest rates soared across the planet and there were serious market imbalances. And ongoing deglobalization is intensifying the negative trends.

In the risk scenario, crisis phenomena begin to manifest themselves in the first quarter of 2025, reaching their peak in the second and third quarters. It also provides for a contraction of the Russian economy over two years (2025-2026). The recovery of the economy will begin in 2027, when growth of 2-3% of GDP will be achieved.

Under the risk scenario, inflation in Russia in 2025 will rise to 13-15% due to a significant reduction in supply. Therefore, the Bank of Russia will seriously tighten monetary policy. In the baseline scenario, the Bank of Russia assumes that in 2027 the key rate will return to the long-term neutral range of 7,5-8,5% per annum.

At the same time, the Bank of Russia reported that Russia's international reserves grew to $614,5 billion, reaching a maximum since February 2022. Russia's external debt as of July 1, 2024, amounted to $306,1 billion, having decreased since the beginning of 2024 by $10,7 billion, or 3,4%.

Thus, the existing international reserves of the Russian Federation cover the country's external debt twofold. However, the Bank of Russia did not specify whether these figures include its frozen assets in the West and whether they can be used to pay off (repay) the existing national debt.

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362

-1

29 August 2024 23: 57

Or maybe we should hire Chinese to work in the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance? They have everything in pluses and pluses. (And also - rent the Chairman, Comrade Xi for a while...)
1. GN
  
  -1
  
  30 August 2024 00: 33
  
  Today Sullivan and Xi received him from the Chinese! So the Chinese are in a very bad way! The narrow-eyed asked him not to raise the duty rates. In fact, the Chinese are ordinary profiteers who will sell their mom and dad for money. They are bastards, they have no one to support, they support themselves, that's how it was, that's how it is and that's how it will be.
  1. smart fellow
    
    +2
    
    30 August 2024 02: 01
    
    Enough lying. The Chinese are very patriotic. And the profiteers are Americans, as in the movie Brother 2 they say about the USA: everything is easy here, except money. Jews have been known since ancient times in all countries as moneylenders, for which they were beaten to death, and now they rule the banking business.
    1. Kentttt
      
      0
      
      30 August 2024 03: 42
      
      Quote: smart fellow
      Enough lying. The Chinese are very patriotic. And the profiteers are Americans, as in the movie Brother 2 they say about the USA: everything is easy here, except money. Jews have been known since ancient times in all countries as moneylenders, for which they were beaten to death, and now they rule the banking business.
      
      Jews are usurers, creditors, collectors, merchants.
      In Russia, the Pale of Settlement was abolished for them! They were not serfs, but were engaged in commerce and trade.
      Due to trade, they spent a lot of time traveling, which is why they were nicknamed "fluttery".
      In Soviet times, the word "порхатый" meant that they would fly away!???
      Remember the joke! Brezhnev asks Gromyko
      How many Jews are there in the country?
      Well, three or four million.
      And if we allow emigration, how many will leave?
      Well, fifteen, twenty million will leave.
      1. smart fellow
        
        +1
        
        30 August 2024 05: 07
        
        In the Far East, my Jewish acquaintances were teachers and students at the university where I studied, and teachers at the institute where I worked. This topic was of no interest to anyone, but in Western Ukraine, as they said, there was a "special" attitude towards Jews. They were called "Frenchmen" there.
        And emigration - I was once traveling on a train with a Jew. He said that he was in Israel, thinking of staying there, but they told him that he had to serve in the army and he gave up on this idea. He had a small shop in Birobidzhan, his wife was a young Russian girl who looked about 18, and he himself was over 40. So, it would have been like swapping an awl for soap. As the saying goes: it's good where we are not.
2. El Roz
  
  +1
  
  30 August 2024 05: 51
  
  there the national debt is already over 80% of GDP, in the US it is 123%... and in the Russian Federation it is less than 20%.
  everyone does what they can. there is no global pill
In passing

0

30 August 2024 01: 00

There will be a crisis. There will be a rise in prices. It will cover Europe, it will cover China, it will cover the States. In that order. Russia, of course, too. But we will get out by 2030. It is not clear how. My forecast is better than theirs, you will see.
1. Kentttt
  
  0
  
  30 August 2024 03: 47
  
  Always the forecast - Europe is in crisis and prices are rising by one and a half percent! Russia is flourishing and the price increase specifically for potatoes is 88%, for beets 90%, for cucumbers 65% from 23 to 24 and this is for now...
Flight

-1

30 August 2024 01: 35

Thus, the existing international reserves of the Russian Federation cover the country's external debt twofold. However, the Bank of Russia did not specify whether these figures include its frozen assets in the West and whether they can be used to pay off (repay) the existing national debt.

That's how it is everywhere in the Russian Federation, it seems to be there, but at the same time it seems to be not there, and what will save them is that no one buys anything, well, except for them.
1. Kentttt
  
  +1
  
  30 August 2024 03: 50
  
  Quote from Voo
  it seems to be there, but at the same time it seems to be not there
  
  Clever manipulation! From the word mani - money.
  The most interesting thing is that the people, in fact, the owners of these long-term savings, are not aware of it.
Kentttt

+1

30 August 2024 03: 32

However, the Bank of Russia did not specify whether these figures include its frozen assets in the West and whether they can be used to pay off (repay) the existing government debt.

But we didn’t even notice the elephant!???
With such accounting, write liabilities into assets, and the conclusions...
depavel

0

30 August 2024 03: 52

It's strange, "Bank of Russia", the wolf of the Federal Reserve System, in sheep's clothing. Why is the rate of disconnection, that is, "reduction of the Russian economy" two-digit, during the SVO should be, according to the logic of the IMF, CIA, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, insiders of the Central Bank, three and four-digit! This confirms the basic policy of democracy, the policy of fighting reason, science. What's interesting is that Nabiullina is a certified leader of the destruction of the economies of third countries, and who is the one who puts forward Putin, who has grabbed hold of her? Maybe he is not a Werewolf, but a supporter, a like-minded person?
Bakht

+4

30 August 2024 06: 14

Under the risk scenario, inflation in Russia in 2025 will rise to 13-15% due to a significant reduction in supply.

The higher the interest rates in the economy - on deposits, on loans, on bonds - the stronger the motivation to direct additional income to savings and, conversely, the less desire to take out loans. Accordingly, a higher level of rates allows demand to be more moderate. And to more quickly eliminate the very output gap, which is the main reason for accelerating inflation.

That is, the Central Bank has not bet on increasing supply (growing production), but on decreasing demand (tightening belts). Buy less, deposit money in the bank. And then the Central Bank will be happy.
1. vkfriendly
  
  0
  
  30 August 2024 08: 13
  
  It's in his blood, so in the fat years, supposedly, in order not to accelerate inflation, money was taken out of the country to accounts in Europe, and there is no need to build anything and create production and become independent in the end, otherwise inflation will cover everyone, devils from a test tube. Because of them, nothing was really built.
vkfriendly

+1

30 August 2024 08: 09

But there is no way to forgive the debts of the entire Western world, do they have to pay them? There is even a legal justification - war and force majeure, but in general they all need to be sent far away and for a long time.
Mongolor

+1

30 August 2024 11: 46

And have they tried planning the economy, spitting on all this bourgeois verbiage, or have they specifically created production facilities like the bourgeoisie/capitalists did, so as not to look unsightly against the backdrop of the USSR?! What is the government thinking?!
KLNM

+1

31 August 2024 13: 01

The incredibly hard mental work of the Central Bank to raise rates... This is the only way for the Central Bank to fight inflation, they do not even understand the nature and essence of inflation in the Russian Federation and this despite the fact that the head of the Government and the Guarantor declare the growth of production, insignificant unemployment, the growth of GDP... It was especially funny when the ruble fell from 50 to 100 rubles for a whole year, this is 100% devaluation, the collapse of the currency, and then Sakhipzadovna comes out with another brooch and innocent eyes and says that it turns out that we were late in reacting to the collapse of the ruble, the whole country is buzzing in shock, and they slept through it... so what did you do for a whole year then, received your multi-million dollar salary on time... In our country, there is rampant speculation, prices are driven up in a circle, pointing fingers at each other, there is no justification for raising prices. The Father in Belarus called big business on the carpet, laid everything out for them on the shelves, their greed and the unreasonableness of inflating prices and presented an ultimatum with consequences and that everything returned to the previous prices, the shelves were not empty, they live normally as before... Business sees the softness and inadequacy in the competence of the authorities, so they create, while there is an opportunity to get rich.
1. vkfriendly
  
  +1
  
  4 September 2024 01: 47
  
  I subscribe to every word.