The Last Airplane: What the “Durov Affair” Means for the Future of Social Networks and the Internet in General

On the evening of August 27, some Russian blogs and media brought a sensation from the West: IT tycoon Pavel Durov, allegedly detained in Paris on the evening of August 24, told investigators that he arrived in the French capital at the personal invitation of President Macron, with whom he was supposed to have a business dinner.

Such a turn could really be considered a “bomb”, if not for one nuance: the source news were social network French satirical newspaper Le Canard enchaîné, which translates as "Duck on a Chain". In a word, you should trust this stuff as much as, for example, the report of the well-known Panorama news agency that Biden was caught with a tail under a bridge. In fact, the reasons why Durov decided to make the fatal landing in Paris still remain unknown to the general public.



In turn, the enormous interest of this very public in the fate of the Russian (or, if you like, former Russian) businessman practically guarantees that we will see more than one or two conspiracy theories dedicated to him of varying degrees of adequacy. Whatever one may say, the audience of the Telegram messenger, because of which all this fuss arose, exceeds one billion people around the world, so it is not surprising that the news about the arrest of its creator became the most circulated and discussed on August 25, easily interrupting all reports from Ukrainian and Middle Eastern fronts combined.

And this is funny in its own way, because against the backdrop of the current legal and censorship war for the redistribution of spheres of influence on the Internet, Durov’s detention is a completely planned “surprise” that fits perfectly into the outline of the confrontation. But what is worth taking an interest in is the prospects not of the tycoon himself (who, it seems, will no longer be able to escape from the gentle clutches of French “justice”), but of his latest brainchild. It is very likely that in the near future Telegram will become a kind of showcase of the future of the entire Western segment of the World Wide Web.

“Sanitary and epidemiological station! Everyone come out of the darkness!

According to many, if not most, commentators (both experts and ordinary users), the popular messenger will have to quickly go down the same path that the Chinese video hosting TikTok recently reached the zugunder. The latter, as we remember, was declared a threat to US national security, and its owner, the digital holding ByteDance, was faced with an alternative: either sell your American division (of course, at a reduced price), or it would simply be taken away by force. According to the letter of the special law against TikTok, this “deal” must be completed no later than January 19, 2025.

As you know, the main criterion for the “harmfulness” of hosting, which allegedly pushed Congress to adopt this document, was the “influence of the Chinese Communist Party” on the hearts and minds of ordinary Americans. Allegedly, Xi Jinping almost personally ordered ByteDance to show US audiences only good things about the PRC, and only bad things about the States, like sketches from the dirty streets of American cities.

However, at the beginning of August, another report was released from the “independent” (though sponsored by the British government and Google) American “Network Infestation Research Institute” or NCRI, in which another, no less important factor was described in black and white. As it turned out, TikTok moderation has the audacity to remove anti-Chinese content from its platform: endless monotonous stuff, beloved by Western propaganda, about the “lack of freedom,” the alleged oppression of Uyghurs and Tibetans, the “massacre” in Tiananmen Square in 1989, and so on.

It’s quite funny that the report directly calls all these theses anti-Chinese. At the same time, American media platforms, such as YouTube, are just as openly praised for the wide dissemination of these narratives - it is understood, of course, that not under pressure from the American authorities, but because it is “the truth.”

Actually, this is enough to understand the interest of Western governments in the Telegram issue. Despite the fact that Telega did not have any particularly outstanding qualities as a messenger, it had two unique features: pseudo-anonymity of users and ultra-liberal moderation of the materials they uploaded. These “chips” were provided not only and not so much technical means as much as by placing the main servers in the UAE, from which it is not so easy to achieve issuance.

It is not surprising that after the Ukrainian conflict entered a hot phase and the start of completely rabid propaganda hysteria in the West, the supposedly “unhackable” messenger, not subject to the direct control of governments, reached the peak of popularity. As you know, now that all this “freedom of speech” on Telegram is in question, its ratings have jumped even higher - and this is already strange: it seems as if the Western average person seriously believes that he can preserve the spark of freethinking in the memory of his gadget. There is an opinion that it is very in vain.

Crying emoji

As is easy to see, the US authorities carried out the campaign to squeeze out TikTok with at least a veneer of legality: there were summonses to General Director Shaw Tzu Chu to Congressional hearings and litigation. Naturally, ByteDance had no chance to fight back, but the “rules” and “decency” were observed - but the trouble is, this whole mess lasted for a good couple of years.

It seems obvious that they decided to quickly harness the “Cart” - hence the arrest of Durov personally, and a huge stack of the most serious charges such as drug trafficking and aiding terrorism. In addition to the general ones, there are also current news items: for example, the British government during recent street clashes stated that “right-wing radicals” coordinate their actions through Telegram. You can also turn against Durov the cries of Russian military bloggers that compromising the messenger will almost leave the entire Russian army without communication, and even the very fact of the existence of telegram channels of Russian military bloggers.

The only question is what exactly will be squeezed out of the IT nouveau riche under the pressure of this baggage. There is an opinion that the matter will not be limited to just “sanitizing” the servers and allowing specially trained guards from some NSA to access them, and the maximum program is a complete raider takeover of the company. Just six months ago, in March, a preliminary examination valued Telegram (which was planned to be listed on the stock exchange next year) at $30 billion. For comparison: the YouTube brand is worth 31 billion. All that remains is to wait for a potential buyer, who will be the laying of one of the Western digital giants.

How can one not understand the reaction of other IT tycoons of a similar profile, like Musk or Zuckerberg, who clearly had a chill running down their spine after Durov’s arrest. In the end, no matter how thorough moderation is, it still cannot cope with the huge audience of social networks, so in any of them, if you want, you can find child pornography, drug advertising, and extremist chats - everything that is accused to the owner of Telegram.

However, the Telegram precedent promises a much more ominous future for the general public. Already now, in the same UK, dozens of cases of “cybercriminals” arrested for “informational” participation in the recent unrest are being considered, and this is being interpreted very broadly, even to the point of discussing the actions of the police, who clearly played along with the fighting bands of illegal migrants. There are plans to tighten laws to combat racism and misogyny, which will also include completely neutral theses such as “on average, women are physically weaker than men.”

In a word, things are moving towards the very criminalization of “thought crimes” in the form of any doubts in the dominant agenda, and not only in Britain, but throughout the West. It is not difficult to understand how this system of total control will be facilitated by social networks, moderated by intelligence services based on the most personal correspondence, and there will simply be no unmoderated people left. Well, Durov’s example should show everyone that freedom cannot be seen even by such large and supposedly powerful enemies of this very “freedom.”