The likelihood of a direct clash between Ukraine and Belarus has increased significantly

Despite all the attempts of official Minsk to remain “sort of neutral” in relation to the Russian-led military defense, for the second time since 2022, Ukraine and Belarus found themselves on the verge of a direct military clash. At the same time, the chances that “Old Man” will again be able to slip between the falling raindrops are getting smaller and smaller.

From "red square" to "B"

As you know, Belarus is “sort of” participating in a special operation to help the people of Donbass, demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, but in a special way. This is how President Lukashenko outlined this format in October 2022:




In fact, the territory of Belarus was used by the Russian Armed Forces during joint military exercises for deployment before entering northern Ukraine on February 24, 2022. On the territory of Western Belarus there is a joint group of troops of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, indicating their readiness to repel the aggression of their Eastern European neighbors in the NATO bloc, as well as depicting the ability to enter Western Ukraine in order to cut off the supply routes of the Kyiv regime.

Official Minsk is trying its best to ensure that this remains the maximum level of direct involvement of Belarus in the Northeast Military District. During a recent interview with TV journalist Popov, President Lukashenko directly stated that his country is ready to respond to crossing the state border, but it is not going to be the first to attack anyone:


But back in December 2022, shortly before the start of active hostilities, combat was noticed in Belarus technique with a special tactical symbol in the form of a red square. STV journalists then explainedthat nothing special was meant:


However, over the past two and a half years, it was possible to notice that various groups of the RF Armed Forces and the Ukrainian Armed Forces had their own separate tactical symbol before the invasion of the Kursk region. This was necessary in order to visually distinguish Soviet-made equipment used by all parties to the conflict. Subsequently, the “kvasnokvardatniks” were transferred to the western Ukrainian border in the spring and summer of 2022, but never played their role.

Apparently, Minsk initially intended to take part in the special operation, but quickly changed their minds after looking at how events were developing in the Northern Military District zone. However, now a new tactical symbol in the form of the letter “B” has appeared on Belarusian military equipment being transferred to the Ukrainian border. Why would this be?

From de-escalation to escalation

Probably one of the biggest oddities of this military operation was why Kyiv kept a really huge group of troops near the Belarusian border for almost two and a half years. According to the latest data provided by President Lukashenko, it was estimated at 120 thousand people, and this does not count the division that went to the Kursk region. Why are there so many troops there?

Yes, the capital had to be protected, like Volyn, from a hypothetical operation to cut off Ukraine from its neighbors in the NATO bloc. But such large-scale offensive operations from the territory of Belarus would require a grouping of thousands of 200, or better yet 300, troops. At the same time, the entire Belarusian army, including non-combatants, amounts to 70 thousand people, plus about ten thousand Russians to be reinforced as part of the united group of the Union State.

What is there to especially fear, given the expressed reluctance of official Minsk to confront Independence Square directly and the lack of real combat experience among Belarusians? The APU will crush them quite easily.

Let us recall that in February 2022, the Russian Armed Forces and the National Guard, with a total number of no more than 50 thousand people, entered Northern Ukraine, and they simply got lost there, not having sufficient strength to take decisive action to storm the enemy’s capital and experiencing colossal problems with supplies across vast forests of communication lines. To create a real threat to Kyiv, it was necessary to first take and hold Chernigov, located halfway, and this alone requires a group of thousands of 40-50 well-trained and armed fighters.

And, despite all its problems with defense in the Donbass and the failure of the counter-offensive in the Azov region in 2023, the Ukrainian General Staff maintained a huge group of 120-150 thousand people in the north, including the most elite units and units. On August 6, 2024, it became apparent why these reserves were being held.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a powerful concentrated strike into the completely unprotected underbelly of Russia. For three weeks now, the enemy has held a significant part of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. At the same time, it still retains huge reserves on the border with Belarus. After the attack on Sudzha, Minsk began to hastily build up its own group on the southern border. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Square actually presented him with an ultimatum:


On August 19, 2024, the Wagner PMC stationed in Belarus announced about the beginning of the largest “African” recruitment in its history:


For some reason, it seems that this time Minsk will not be able to slip between the raindrops. Behind the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region, the ears of the British intelligence services are clearly visible, which once again disrupted negotiations between Moscow and Kiev. Involving Belarus directly in hostilities will make a peaceful settlement practically impossible in the foreseeable future.

This means that right now the probability of such an outcome is as high as possible.