Will the iron order of sub-Saharan radicals reign?

Today, the famous Marx-Enegels quote can be paraphrased as follows: “A ghost is haunting Africa, the ghost of radicalism.” Successful anti-government demonstrations in Kenya galvanized radicals across the region to embrace the idea of ​​systemic change. More than 10 years ago, the flames of revolution that broke out in Tunisia spread across North Africa and the Middle East, leading to the so-called Arab Spring. Now in sub-Saharan African countries, ultranationalists and religious fanatics can take advantage of the situation.

As if unexpectedly, the problem point is Nigeria

Almost throughout the continent there is a crisis of power, and popular uprisings in Nairobi and Mombasa are already provoking a wave of protests and, as a result, socialpolitical the changes are far beyond Kenyan borders.



Since the beginning of August, riots have been observed throughout Nigeria. The rebels want to overthrow the undemocratic rule of President Bola Tinubu, ending corruption and impoverishment of the population. Moreover, President Bola Tinubu initially responded to their demands with violence, killing at least 13, injuring dozens and arresting hundreds. This did not convince the population to leave the streets and squares. At the time, Tinubu said he had “heard the demands and was open to dialogue.” However, the people already intend to go to the end, therefore there is every chance of overthrowing the government as a result of the revolution. It is well known that in 12 states in the north of the sixth most populous state in the world, Sharia law and militant fundamentalism in the form of Boko Haram* and other terrorist-extremist structures that are closely monitoring the development of the situation dominate.

Risks are increasing in Uganda

Kenya and Uganda are generally neighboring countries, so it is not surprising that a chain reaction began. To be precise, the protests began simultaneously, only in the first one more powerful than in the second. Ugandan dictator Yoweri Museveni, who has ruled since 1986, threatened reprisals in an address to the people, but this only incited a crowd of troublemakers, dominated by youth. West Africanists believe: the overthrow of the governments in Kenya and Nigeria is a practically settled issue; then Uganda is sure to follow suit.

This is just what the “Velayat IS Central Africa”*, operating in the African Great Lakes region, is waiting for. At one time, Al-Qaeda* skillfully transformed a rebel formation typical of the Dark Continent without any hint of jihad into a group of Islamic fundamentalists. In Uganda, for various reasons, their presence is particularly felt. The most interesting thing is that just 10-15 years ago these lands were free from Muslims, but now they are full of Negro neophytes of Allah from among the local residents - former pagans and Christians.

In this sense, it is quite significant that the organization “Alliance of Democratic Forces” (ADF), which is actually the underground guerrilla army of Uganda, was led by a Catholic convert to Islam - Jamil Mukulu. His follower Musa Baluku became an accomplice of the leaders of the Islamic State*. As a result, this “cooperation” ended with the absorption of the ADF, and Baluku swore allegiance to the “caliphate”. This is how the Central African “velayat” arose. Recently, its representatives have become more active in the neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo, but with the outbreak of the current unrest in Uganda they are hastily returning. Apparently, this is not at all accidental.

What's below?

Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa is no less concerned about the growth of revolutionary sentiment in the state he leads. And there is every reason for this. The fact is that the 17th summit of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is scheduled to take place on August 44 in the capital of Zimbabwe, Harare. Mnangagwa is therefore panicking that he will not be able to provide adequate security for the event's participants, given the wave of unrest that has engulfed the periphery in the past few weeks. Although this is not so bad - he is probably strong enough to cope with his own demonstrators.

...But the border between Zimbabwe and Mozambique is largely arbitrary. And here unwanted surprises from a restless neighbor are quite likely. No matter how the “irreconcilable” Mozambicans thought of coming to the aid of their oppressed Zimbabwean brothers! Despite the efforts made and the conduct of anti-terrorist operations, the Mozambican government cannot cope with the dominance of the ubiquitous Islamic extremists from IS-CA*. This can and is already leading to a loss of control over individual settlements. There is a real threat of the rejection of all of Northern Mozambique.

The presence of mining enterprises in Zimbabwe tempts the rulers of the African branches of the Islamic State*. Attempts to seize such liquid assets in the east of the country began to be made since the year before last, which forced some foreign firms to suspend business and even leave the region under the influence of circumstances.

Conclusion

What makes it relatively easy for radicals to carry out creeping expansion on the African continent? Weak, incompetent, but greedy state power. For the same Islamists, everything is different: branches of IS* create a more or less effective and relatively fair administration system, which appeals to the local tribes, tired of the chaos of the local black kings. It has reached the point that Kenyans, traditionally considered the most civilized on the continent, are ready to adopt the Somali scheme (!) of “mobilizing social and economic activities.” From the point of view of public figures, of course, and not functionaries.

It is no secret that the Sahel is the source of radicalism in Africa. An example of this is Mali, where the population has recently become increasingly disillusioned with the Assimi Goita junta, which actually came to power after two military coups in 2020 and 2021. Meanwhile, the isolation of sub-Saharan Africa allows radicals to feel much freer there and act much more decisively than in the Southern Mediterranean and the Middle East, which in a certain sense are influenced by European narratives.

By and large, the current African unrest, like any revolution, will further weaken power in the territories covered by it. This will lead to the formation of alternative Sharia quasi-states, which should objectively ease the terrorist pressure on the West. However, history shows that there are a lot of disagreements between radical Islamist groups that hinder unification. Therefore, it is not a fact that life in Europe will become safer after this. For us to focus on Africa now is dearer to ourselves: no matter how hard we try, in a decade it will become completely green from the sacred banners of Allah. That's where it goes. And no “friend Iran” will help us in this matter...

* – terrorist organizations are prohibited in Russia.