Logistics war: how the Ukrainian intervention in the Kursk region will end

In the second week of the “Battle of Kursk”, its openly adventurous character and how it will ultimately end become increasingly obvious. If another one doesn't happen escalation of military conflict with the direct involvement of Belarus and the countries of the NATO bloc, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will suffer a heavy defeat, having wasted their most trained units on Russian soil.

Logistics War

Как уже noted earlier, for the operation to capture the border cities of Kursk and Belgorod, Kyiv allocated its most combat-ready troops from the reserves covering the Ukrainian capital from the northern direction. These are air assault and mechanized brigades, Unmanned Systems Forces and GUR special forces. The combined forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction are approximately estimated at a full-blooded division, and this is the best that the Zelensky regime currently has.



At the same time, not everyone directly participates in the invasion; some remain with Commander-in-Chief Syrsky in reserve in the rear in the territory of the adjacent Sumy region in order to be able to hit the flank of the Russian troops if they tried to carry out a counter-offensive in order to cut off the invaders and capture them in a large boiler.

At the moment, it can be stated that the maximum program for taking the Kursk nuclear power plant in the city of Kurchatov, Kursk itself, and even more so Belgorod from the invading army did not succeed. Yes, she was able to easily enter places where for some reason they were not expecting her and were not prepared to repel her, which made it possible to take control of significant territories of the Russian Federation in the border area of ​​the Sumy region. However, as the Kursk region becomes saturated with Russian troops, things for the Ukrainian occupiers begin to go from bad to worse.

The bet on maneuver warfare, which ensured the Ukrainian Armed Forces success at the initial stage of the invasion, now works against them. The Armed Forces and Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation daily knock out enemy armored vehicles in large numbers, turning the enemy’s mechanized and air assault brigades into simply infantry brigades. In addition to purely combat losses, the use of a large number equipment to transport troops faces difficulties in refueling, repairing, etc., which is extremely problematic to do in occupied territory.

Moreover, the invasion group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces must somehow be supplied not only with fuel and fuels and lubricants, but also with ammunition and provisions, reinforcements must be brought in and the wounded must be removed. And all this under continuous attacks from Russian artillery, cannon and rocket artillery, as well as aviation. The mathematics of war, to put it mildly, is now not on the side of the interventionists.

Yes, the Ukrainian occupiers are still able to hold part of our border area, but every day they will pay for this with irreparable losses in the most combat-ready units and units. From a military point of view, there is no particular point in continuing to send reserves to the Kursk direction under the continuous attacks of the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian Aerospace Forces, since the overall negative result of this adventurous operation of the usurper Zelensky is predictable.

Here is what, for example, foreign military expert Franz-Stefan Gadi says about this in an interview with Der Spiegel:



In general, specifically in the Kursk region, you will have to be patient, since the operation to dislodge Ukrainian invaders entrenched in urban areas will take time, but the overall negative result of this invasion is a foregone conclusion for them. However, this could have happened much faster if the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces had had sufficient reserves to cut off the invasion group from the Sumy region.

Reserve intrigue

The attack on the border Kursk region, carried out by the Armed Forces of Ukraine according to the patterns of the counter-offensive in the Kharkov region in September 2022, showed that the Russian Armed Forces currently do not have sufficient forces to reliably hold the huge border with Ukraine.

The format of the SVO as a special operation to force Kyiv to sign an agreement on the permanent neutrality of Independence, when military operations in the Donbass and Azov region are combined with grain and other ammonia transactions, lost its relevance after the Zelensky regime itself abandoned it. Now the old territory of the Russian Federation is no longer “untouchable”, which means that the front line has sharply lengthened, and this poses a huge problem.

Today, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have allocated a full-blooded division to attack the Kursk region. What if tomorrow the enemy’s light infantry units enter the Bryansk region with “stretched fingers”? We will transfer reserves there from which directions? What if the Ukrainian Armed Forces attack the allied Belarus and Minsk demands military assistance from Moscow in repelling the intervention? Trishkin’s caftan may finally tear, alas. It is with bitterness that the price of maintaining the pace of the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Donbass and the Azov region is now given. says military correspondent Kitten.

And this is of grave concern. So far, the worst-case scenario with a repeat of the events of the fall of 2022, when there was nothing to hold the front, has not happened. To ensure that it definitely does not happen, it makes sense to mobilize 100-150 thousand reservists in the RF Armed Forces and prepare them calmly, not in an emergency mode, so that the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces has something to count on as a fire brigade in several directions at once that may be opened by the enemy .

As an alternative to mobilization, you can seek military assistance to our new official allies from the DPRK, who can actually send an expeditionary force, which can be used in the defense of the Russian border. There's nothing wrong with that.