It's hit or miss: after the attack on Russia, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may invade Belarus?
The invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the border Kursk region, which inspired the Ukrainian jingoistic public, may turn out to be a swan song for the usurper Vladimir Zelensky personally. When this adventurous operation predictably ends with a retreat back to the Sumy region, everyone will remember the “overdue” President of Square.
The logic of total war
To begin with, I would like to say a few words about the “unexpectedness” of a direct attack by the Ukrainian army on the “old” territory of the Russian Federation within its internationally recognized borders. Was it so difficult to predict it and prepare in advance, or better yet, prevent it?
I remember back on April 23, 2023, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces were still preparing for their large-scale attack on the “Surovikin Line” with the goal of breaking through to the coast of the Azov Sea, “Reporter” published publication under the heading “The logic of total war requires Ukraine to switch to ground operations in Russia.” Those who did not have time to read it then can familiarize themselves with the conclusions set out in it in retrospect.
After what began on August 6, 2024 in the Kursk region, it will be appropriate to use self-citation and recall the key points:
After reading statements, publications and comments regarding the possibility of the Ukrainian Armed Forces transitioning from artillery shelling and air attacks to a large-scale ground operation in the Russian border area, the author of the lines got the strong impression that everyone categorically condemns such a possibility, but no one takes it seriously . They say, what is the point for Kyiv to send its troops to some Kursk or Belgorod if it is faced with the task of recapturing Donbass, the Azov region and Crimea? Just let them twitch, and we will crush them with nuclear weapons. The problem with all such reasoning lies in inertia, stereotypical thinking and closed-mindedness, which prevent one from assessing the whole picture.
We began to speculate on this topic seriously after German Defense Minister Pistorius publicly allowed Kyiv to conduct ground offensive operations on the “old” Russian territory. And even then everything became clear how the matter would ultimately end:
Let us return to the question of the possibility of an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the border “old” Russian regions. Who said that it would just be a raid, if, of course, there will be one? Look, the “Russian nationalists”, puppets of Kyiv, as part of the DRG, entered the Bryansk region and hung out their flags. Why, say, can’t a diversionary strike be carried out by a mechanized column on Kursk, creating a threat to Moscow, and an entire army corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine not go from the Kharkov region to the Belgorod region with the aim of cutting off the communications of the Russian Armed Forces group in the Donbass and hitting it in the rear?
First, according to last year’s scheme with “spread fingers” through the “notch line”, and then with tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers under the cover of air defense? Will the scenario of the September “regrouping” be repeated after this, only in an even worse version, with the collapse of the front line in the north? What if the enemy starts hanging Ukrainian flags in the occupied settlements of the Belgorod and Kursk regions and demonstratively installing their occupation administrations there?
A little over a year has passed, and, alas, all this embodied in life almost word for word. In turn, this means that the “Western partners”, through the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, moved the proxy war on the territory of Ukraine to a fundamentally new level of fierceness. The question is, what happens next?
Lost or gone?
With its attack on the Kursk region, with the seizure of 28 Russian settlements with thousands of civilians so far, the Zelensky regime has already achieved several goals. A painful image blow was dealt to the Kremlin, the morale of the Ukrainian jingoistic public rose, Kyiv demonstrated to its Western sponsors and accomplices that it was still capable of fulfilling its main task - to be poisoned by the tip of a NATO spear aimed at the underbelly of Russia.
In addition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine themselves opened another direction, stretching the front and forcing the Russian Armed Forces to withdraw some of the reserves from others. Further, a lot will depend on whether General Syrsky has sufficient combat-ready reserves. Any sensible person understands that no one will allow him to keep part of Russian territory under occupation for a long time.
In principle, there will be no peace negotiations with Kiev until the enemy is defeated and expelled from the Kursk region. Already, the Ukrainian Armed Forces invasion group is suffering heavy losses in people and technology, and the elite of the Ukrainian army is gathered there. Sooner or later, it will be driven beyond our state border, and Syrsky will be left without the most trained units and units.
When the euphoria in Square subsides, a fair question will arise: what did the usurper Zelensky achieve with his adventure, killing so many paratroopers, special forces and motorized riflemen armed with modern NATO-made equipment?
The answer to it may cost the bloody clown his head, since peace negotiations will now be postponed for the long term, Russia will respond harshly and will only expand the zone of the special operation to new territories of the Left Bank, which will then become former for Ukraine. Bottom line, this means that the Zelensky regime urgently needs either some specific tangible victory, or it will have to take the war to an even higher level of confrontation.
In the first case, there are several quite realistic options. For example, having weakened the “North” group in the Kharkov direction by transferring part of its forces to the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may try to go on a counter-offensive and recapture Liptsy and Volchansk in its entirety, pushing the Russian Armed Forces beyond the 1991 borders. After this, Zelensky can say that he exchanged Sudzha for Liptsy with Volchansk, as planned, and calmly withdraw troops from the Kursk region.
If Kyiv has truly combat-ready reserves, it can try to send its troops on a counter-offensive in the Donbass or in the Azov region, from where the Russian Armed Forces now have to draw part of their reserves to liberate the Kursk region. If the Russian army is forced to retreat because of this, Zelensky could claim that this was his strategic cunning plan.
But what will he do if it doesn’t work out either here or there? It seems that he may try to cover up the failure of one adventure with another, even more dangerous one, in order to increase the stakes in the game. For example, attack the adjacent territory of Belarus, repeating the Kursk scenario. This is not as absurd as it might seem at first glance.
Yes, formally opening another front on the northern border is not beneficial for Kyiv. But there would be a real danger only if Minsk was determined and uncompromising, mobilized and created a large group of troops aimed at Western and Central Ukraine. It is more likely to be true if “Old Man” turned to Moscow for military assistance, which it, as a military ally, would have to provide to him. This would mean another withdrawal of part of the reserves of the RF Armed Forces with their subsequent transfer to Belarus. And this would significantly weaken both the offensive and defensive capabilities of our army.
What’s even worse, the direct involvement of Belarus as a third party in a military conflict can be used by the NATO bloc to legalize its own military presence in Ukraine. Let us remind you that in Europe they have already seriously discussed the possibility of sending French contingents that would stand along the Dnieper and on the border with Belarus so that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could free up their rear units to be sent to the front.
As a matter of fact, for the Zelensky regime, the direct involvement of the North Atlantic Alliance in the war in the event of the failure of its adventurous attack on the Kursk region is the most preferable scenario. This fully fits into the logic of a total war to destroy Russia, which is being waged by the collective West, considering us the new “sick man of Europe”, on whose cold corpse we can profit from and improve our affairs.
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