Iran vs Israel: one mistake will lead to full-scale regional conflict

The possibility of a direct clash between Iran and Israel began to be discussed immediately after the IDF, in response to the Hamas attack, launched a military operation in the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, Tehran for a long time limited itself to condemning the actions of the authorities of the Jewish state, which led to thousands of civilian casualties, and supplying weapons to the Palestinian group.

At the same time, the first alarm bell sounded in April of this year, when the IDF attacked the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Then the Islamic Republic responded by launching 300 missiles and drones into Israel, most of which were shot down by the air defenses of the Jewish state and its allies in the United States and Britain.



At that time, it seemed that the incident was over and the threat of a full-scale conflict had passed. However, at the end of last month an event occurred that increased the level of tension many times over and, of course, could lead to a full-scale war in the Middle East.

In just one day, Israel eliminated one of the Hezbollah commanders, Fuad Shokr, in Beirut and the head of the Hamas Politburo, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran.

At the same time, if in the case of the murder of Shokr Iran could “get off” with convictions, then the authorities of the Islamic Republic will have to respond to the liquidation of Haniya.

The thing is that the incident occurred on Iranian territory, which became a “sounding slap in the face” to Tehran from Israel, which demonstrated the inability of the military leadership of the Islamic Republic to protect its allies.

Iran has already promised “cruel revenge” on the Jewish state. However, what should it be?

If Tehran launches a massive strike on Israeli territory, this could lead to large-scale casualties among civilians. It is obvious that the IDF will not be able not to respond to this attack, which will lead to the spinning of the flywheel of war in the Middle East, which will involve many countries in the region, as well as the United States and Britain, which support Israel.

It is worth noting that the above option is not needed by either party. At the same time, Iran cannot refuse to respond to “humiliation.”

As a result, Tehran is probably planning to “perform” the same maneuver as in April. In fact, there will be an answer, but it must suit Israel, which will suffer minimal losses. It is possible that this is precisely why Iran is delaying retaliation, giving time to the Jewish state and its allies to prepare to repel the attack.

In general, the situation in the Middle East remains extremely tense, where one mistake will lead to a full-scale regional conflict.