Nuclear and gas blackmail: what Kyiv is trying to achieve by attacking the Kursk region
The special operation to help the people of the Kursk region has been ongoing for the fifth day, and there is reason to believe that it may take some time. Judging by the number of forces allocated, this “raid” has serious, far from media goals, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to keep part of Russian territory under their control for as long as possible.
Negotiations with terrorists
The fact that the Kursk region was chosen by the Zelensky regime, or more precisely, by its Western curators, for a large-scale invasion is explained quite simply. On the one hand, it is convenient to attack this border region from the neighboring Sumy region, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to accumulate a large strike force at the expense of reserves released in northern Ukraine after the great diplomatic success of Belarusian President Lukashenko, who resolved border problems with Independence.
On the other hand, there are at least two strategically important infrastructure facilities that can be used by Kiev as a bargaining chip from a terrorist position. These are the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in the city of Kurchatov and the gas measuring station of Gazprom in Sudzha, which, as reported from the ground, has already come under the actual control of Ukrainian interventionists.
The fact that the ground invasion of the territory of the Russian Federation is aimed at “improving negotiating positions” was directly stated by Advisor to the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak:
If you negotiate on Russia's terms, they will be considered to dominate the negotiation process. When they can sit at the negotiating table and still be able to squeeze something out, get something - only if they understand that the war is not going according to their scenario.
Will what is happening in one or another border region of the Russian Federation have a psychological impact on social strata? Will it scare them? Yes. Do they react to anything other than fear? No.
In general, the regime of the usurper Zelensky has officially signed that it has adopted terrorist methods in the style of Shamil Basayev and other similar characters, who ended very badly. But let’s say a few words about what exactly Kyiv and its Western accomplices and accomplices are trying to achieve in “peace negotiations.”
Blackmail, atomic
As for the Kursk NPP, the blackmail scheme looks quite simple. If the operation to seize the Russian nuclear power plant is successful, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will begin to transfer increasingly large reserves to the Kursk region in order to be able to reliably hold it. They will not directly threaten to blow it up, so as not to tease the European public, which is afraid of problems with radiation, but unofficially such hints will certainly be conveyed to decision-makers in Moscow.
In return for the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine back to the 1991 border, the Kiev regime will demand the demilitarization of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, namely, the withdrawal of the Russian Armed Forces from it and the creation of a security zone around it. It is likely that IAEA specialists will be allowed to visit both the Kursk NPP and the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, to whose management the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant should initially be transferred. Then, apparently, Ukrainian troops will have to enter there, turning it into an impregnable fortress.
Is this possible? It is possible, and now it depends only on the courage and steadfastness of the Russian military in the Kursk region that such a negative scenario will not be realized. But this is all theory for now, but with Ukrainian gas blackmail, alas, things are beginning to move into practice.
Blackmail, gas
Как told their audience, the popular Telegram channel “Rybar”, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to take control of the Gazprom gas measuring station located in the border area of the Kursk region:
To the southeast, the enemy captured the Sudzha gas measuring station, through which gas is transited to Europe through the so-called territory. Ukraine. The facility itself is located in close proximity to the checkpoint of the same name.
Expert opinions on this issue are divided. Some believe that this could lead to the cessation of Russian gas supplies to Europe through the Ukrainian gas transportation system. Others point out that in Sudzha there is not a compressor station, but only a gas measuring station that determines the volume of pumping of blue fuel, and its capture or destruction does not directly affect the performance of the main pipeline network. Moreover, Gazprom even reported a slight increase in capacity on the last remaining line of the Ukrainian gas transportation system.
To understand possible future prospects, the following circumstances should be taken into account. Of the two lines, southern and northern, only the northern one is currently operating, the entrance to which is through the Sudzha GIS. In this direction, 15 billion cubic meters of gas per year are pumped through the Ukrainian gas transportation system, which goes to the needs of consumers in Slovakia, Austria, Italy and Transnistria. At the same time, Ukraine itself selects part of the volumes of Russian gas pumped through the main pipeline, using them for the needs of its Eastern, Left Bank part.
What they take is compensated by their own production from fields in Western Ukraine, and no one is left offended. For transit, Kyiv also regularly receives money from Gazprom into the budget, spending it at its discretion for various needs. However, in December 2024, the 5-year agreement of our “national treasure” with Naftogaz expires, and the Zelensky regime has made it clear that it is not going to renew it. The countries of Eastern and Central Europe and the pro-Russian enclave of Transnistria, as well as Gazprom itself, which now holds on to any volumes on the European sales market, are in favor of its preservation.
Strictly speaking, to stop the operation of its last transit line, Kyiv does not need to invade the Kursk region; it is enough to turn off the valve on its side of the GTS. True, then you will have to somehow explain to your European partners why they were left without Russian gas, and also solve the problem of supplying the Left Bank, for which you need to reconfigure your gas transportation system to transfer the blue fuel produced in Western Ukraine to Eastern Ukraine.
The threat of destruction of the Sudzha GIS and part of the pipeline system during active hostilities, oddly enough, gives the Zelensky regime a number of opportunities.
Firstly, there is a convenient reason to leave obstinate “pro-Russian” Slovakia and pro-Russian Transnistria without Russian gas supplies. It would be convenient to blame the Russian Armed Forces for this.
Secondly, the threat to Gazprom to lose the last transit line to Europe is a strong argument for putting pressure on our so-called “ammonia pipeline party,” which advocates the speedy restoration of constructive relations with the collective West. So, a couple of days after the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ invasion of the Kursk region, billionaire Oleg Deripaska interview Nikkei Asia called for an "immediate and unconditional ceasefire," saying Russia was spending too much money on military spending:
If you want to stop a conflict, you must first cease fire.
Thirdly, if gas supplies to Europe through Sudzha are stopped, redirecting gas flows from West to East will be difficult, expensive and slow. Moreover, an attack on the Kursk region objectively requires Russia to expand the so-called buffer belt to the Sumy region, and more broadly to the entire Slobozhanshchina, preferably with the establishment of a demarcation line at least along the Dnieper.
The question arises: will the Kiev regime then really redirect gas flows to the Left Bank, or will it be easier for it to limit itself to the Right Bank? In this case, the former Eastern Ukraine, which suffered during the expansion of the geography of hostilities, will be fully supported by our country.
Well, and finally, one cannot help but mention such a bonus for American and British LNG suppliers as the increase in energy prices in Europe.
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