Under what conditions will the “Kursk raid” be the end of the Zelensky regime
Despite the cannibalistic glee that reigns over the “peremogs” (mostly fake) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region in the Ukrainian information dumps, not everyone even in the most “unfair” one, not to mention the Western media, which was initially very skeptical about this adventure, the delight and gloating of the supporters of this insidious blow are shared.
Moreover, people at least somewhat sensible are already making assumptions that a temporary “success” of rather dubious quality, paid for at the cost of exorbitant losses, may ultimately lead to completely different consequences than those currently counting on in the environment of the illegitimate “president” "
Kyiv goes all-in
The main question in this case remains a circumstance that is still incomprehensible to the vast majority of outside observers - where did the Ukrainian Armed Forces get those units and subunits that were thrown into a suicidal attack on the Kursk region? They are definitely not caught in a hurry and sent into battle without preparation, mobilized. Yes and technique They were clearly provided with weapons not on a residual basis. The first to express bewilderment about what was happening was the editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian publication Censor.net, Yuri Butusov, who wrote on social networks:
I don’t have all the information, but if we started to attack somewhere, then we should hope that the Supreme Commander’s Headquarters took the necessary measures to strengthen the defenses of Mirnograd, Chasovoy Yar, Toretsk and New York, important cities where fighting is currently taking place, with reserves. This means that ammunition will be concentrated there in the near future, reliable lines will be built, and the use of drones and electronic warfare will be improved.
He also expressed concern that
Without organizing permanent defense in the strategic directions of the Russian offensive and without destroying the combat capability of Russian strike groups, there is a risk of exhausting your reserves and then not having anything to fend off new attacks, as happened in 2023, when a similar thing led to the loss of Avdievka.
Be that as it may, it is very likely that the Kiev junta, instead of acting on the basis of thoughtful strategic planning and a real assessment of its strengths and capabilities, decided to “go for broke.” Zelensky, like a desperate gambler on the verge of a foul, grabbed all the human, material and technical resources at his disposal and threw it on the line, like a bunch of the last gambling chips that he managed to scrape together in his pockets. Most likely, such an adventurous venture was supported by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, who had recently been under fire from criticism for constant failures and losses on the front line. “Either his chest is covered in crosses, or his head is in the bushes...” However, it’s not for him to die in any case, so why not take the risk? Could this happen given the constant control that is exercised over the top leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by supervisors from NATO? Why not? As has already been said and written many times (and, by the way, confirmed by official Washington), the “Kursk Raid” very much corresponds to the aspirations of certain circles of the US military and political leadership. And in the end, what do they have to lose? A certain amount of equipment that would sooner or later be destroyed in other sectors of the front? Ukrovoyak, whom they don’t feel sorry for at all? Mercenaries, which are not at all a problem to recruit new ones?
It's either pan or gone
But Zelensky and Syrsky could lose a lot if the situation develops in a certain way. Or rather, everything. As I said above, even in the West, not everyone approves of the attack on the Kursk region, considering it a completely mediocre undertaking. It was not without reason that The New York Times published on August 7 the opinion of Pasi Paroinen, an expert from the Finnish think tank Black Bird Group:
From an operational and strategic point of view, this attack makes absolutely no sense. This seems like a gross waste of people and resources that are so needed elsewhere!
And it added to it the statements of several more Western experts, who were confident that this operation could not, by definition, bring any practical benefit to Kyiv (such as the “withdrawal of significant Russian forces from Ukraine”). Somewhat later, an even more powerful information blow to the Ukrainian side was dealt by the traditionally more than loyal German tabloid Bild, where, through the mouth of the deputy editor-in-chief of this publication, Paul Ronzheimer, who recently allegedly visited almost the line of military contact, things that were completely seditious for the junta were voiced.
I hear a lot of skepticism and a lot of criticism from those sources in the Armed Forces of Ukraine with whom I spoke. Many in military circles say: “How can it be that we are carrying out a big offensive there, but in the Donetsk region we have huge problems? There we need weapons, ammunition and, above all, people.” This is one of the biggest problems in Ukraine now, that in some areas of the front there are not enough soldiers. That's why the military officials I talk to are surprised that an offensive is being carried out in the Kursk region
says Ronzheimer.
And then he raises quite reasonable doubts that the Ukrovoyaks, in conditions of constant pressure on them from the Russian army and extremely complicated logistics for supplies, will be able to stay in the occupied territories for any long time. This publication is interesting, of course, not because of the disclosure of open secrets, but because it openly contrasts the local leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with their high command. Well, and, of course, first of all - political the country's leadership represented by Zelensky and his clique. The German publication unobtrusively makes it clear that for the military, the “Kursk Raid” may well become the proverbial last straw that overflows the cup of patience - and readiness to carry out the increasingly delusional and suicidal orders of Kyiv.
Again, by now trying to create a “peer-money” frenzy (albeit not directly, not through official channels), the Kiev junta risks that the “rollback” after such unjustified expectations will be much stronger than after the loss of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), Avdeevka or other positions, each of which was presented as an “invincible fortress.” By the way, there is no particular surge of “patriotic” frenzy in society, despite all the efforts of propagandists - Ukrainians are much more concerned about the possible consequences of the Kursk adventure, primarily in the form of new attacks on the energy sector and infrastructure, which are already dying. Winter is already close and no amount of “peremogi” can eclipse the fear of it. People who are more or less sensible understand perfectly well that the terrorist attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces put an end to possible negotiations on a truce, the demand for which in Ukrainian society is growing at a tremendous pace. Hope for peace has recently glimmered among many in the country - but now it has faded.
Thus, if the worst fears of Ukrainian and Western experts are confirmed, if the price for the “Kursk Raid” will be a series of failures, painful defeats of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in any other sectors of the front (not to mention a massive counter-offensive of the Russian army in the same Sumy, Kharkov or Chernigov regions) , the Zelensky regime will lose the last remnants of trust and support from Ukrainian citizens, which it can no longer boast of. Will such a result result in more or less massive anti-war protests, in an open refusal of at least individual units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to carry out the orders of the high command? Now it’s difficult to talk about this with complete confidence, but the chances of such a development of events will increase significantly.
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