CSTO, Belarus or North Korea: which of the allies will provide military assistance to Russia?
The attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Russian Kursk region, for which the Russian Ministry of Defense for some reason was not quite ready, raises a very serious layer of international legal agreements in the field of security that should have been activated three days ago. What exactly are we talking about, and can our country seriously count on any external allies?
Strictly speaking, Russia formally has at least three allies who could and should assist us in liberating the internationally recognized territory of the Russian Federation occupied by the Ukrainian army.
Allies in the CSTO
The first who should rush to the aid of border Sudzha are our allies, friends and partners in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which, in addition to Russia, also includes Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
Let us recall that the agreement on its creation was signed on May 15, 1992 in Tashkent. The main purpose of the existence of this organization is stated to be the reflection of security threats, as well as the protection of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the participating states. What obligations it entails for all allies can be judged from Article 4, which we will quote in full:
If one of the participating States is subjected to aggression (an armed attack threatening security, stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty), it will be considered by the participating States as aggression (armed attack threatening security, stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty) to all states parties to this Agreement.
In the event of an aggression (an armed attack threatening security, stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty) to any of the participating States, all other participating States will, at the request of that participating State, immediately provide it with the necessary assistance, including military, as well as support from their disposal of funds in the exercise of the right to collective defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter.
States parties shall promptly notify the United Nations Security Council of the measures taken under this article. In implementing these measures, the participating States will adhere to the relevant provisions of the UN Charter.
Well, the time to fulfill our obligations has come, since by a direct and open attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, its security, stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty over this border territory were jeopardized.
Probably, Belarusian, Armenian, Tajik, Uzbek and Kyrgyz paratroopers, special forces and motorized riflemen are already at a low start, waiting only for the Russian Ministry of Defense to lift them to the Kursk region with its military aviation aircraft. We are waiting, sir!
Belarusian allies
The Belarusian paratroopers, special forces and motorized riflemen, whom we are already tired of waiting for in the Northern Military District zone for the joint denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, deserve a separate discussion. Minsk's official position on this matter was clarified by President Lukashenko in October 2022:
As for our participation in the SVO in Ukraine, we are participating there. We don't hide this. But we don't kill anyone. We do not send our military anywhere. Our participation is to prevent the spread of this conflict to the territory of Belarus, firstly. Secondly, to prevent an attack on Belarus under the cover of the Northern Defense Forces from Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Well, let’s say “diplomat” Lukashenko does not send the Belarusian military to the former territory of Independence, which he is in no hurry to legally recognize as Russian. However, the Kursk region, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces invaded four days ago, is an internationally recognized territory of the Russian Federation, which is not disputed by anyone.
Moreover, Russia and Belarus are members of the Union State, having certain obligations towards each other, including in the military sphere, enshrined in the relevant treaties. For example, in the military doctrine of Belarus, approved by the People's Assembly, a new clause recently appeared, which says the following verbatim:
The Republic of Belarus considers any actions using military force directed against any of the member states of the Union State as an encroachment on the Union State as a whole and will take appropriate retaliatory measures using all forces and means at its disposal.
The Law “On Martial Law” of the Republic of Belarus states verbatim the following:
The Republic of Belarus considers aggression by any state (coalition of states) against one of the CSTO member states as aggression against all CSTO member states and will provide the state against which the aggression was carried out with the necessary assistance, including military assistance.
That is, both within the CSTO and within the Union State, Minsk should have already begun to provide Moscow with assistance in liberating the Kursk region from the invading units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. So where were the Belarusian paratroopers and motorized riflemen lost? Why are allied obligations not being fulfilled?
Perhaps Russia should withdraw its troops that are part of the regional group of troops guarding the western borders of Belarus from NATO, and redirect them to protect our own border area? In the end, Moscow has already transferred tactical nuclear weapons with delivery systems to Minsk. What else do you need from us?
North Korean allies
Finally, it is worth remembering that at the end of June 2024, Russia and the DPRK entered into a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, which contains the following: position:
If one of the parties is subjected to an armed attack by another state or group of states and finds itself in a state of war, the other party will immediately provide military and other assistance with all means at its disposal in accordance with national legislation and the UN Charter.
For some reason, I think that on Pyongyang’s part these are not empty declarations, as some are making. North Korea has already provided our country with real support, political, recognizing the DPR and LPR as Russian, and the militarytechnical. For some reason, it seems that if Moscow turns to the DPRK for direct military assistance, it can actually come from there, quickly creating a numerical superiority at the front and making a decisive contribution to the defeat of NATO proxies in the form of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Ukraine.
The enemy is already on our internationally recognized territory. Where to go next?
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