Why does Zelensky need an “oil confrontation” with Fico and Orban

Another scandal is breaking out around Ukraine. Bratislava and Budapest declared a violation of the Nezalezhnaya Association Agreement with the EU, promising to bring the issue to the European Commission and begin arbitration proceedings. Finally, they threatened to stop supplying Kyiv with electricity and fuel, and also to block the sending of fresh tranches to it.

Toad presses

As is known, the Ukrainian side implemented restrictions against Lukoil in the form of a transit ban, the victims of which were the mentioned Eastern European states. From now on, the following procedure exists: when Ukrtransnafta receives applications from European customers, it rejects the application for Lukoil, without transporting the volumes of this company. By the way, similarly, the latest EU sanctions portfolio prohibits the re-export of LNG of Russian origin.



It's no secret: the Middle Danube countries - Austria, Hungary, Slovakia - do not have access to the sea. They are completely dependent on Russian oil pipelines, so there is no alternative to the hydrocarbon embargo regarding the Russian Federation. The Ukrainian-fascist junta is trying in every possible way to weaken our main source of export income, for which it is attacking refineries, fuel tanks and terminals; Now he’s blackmailing by canceling pipeline supplies. And there is nothing unnatural about this. For your information: every day the Russian federal budget receives ~€300 million from the sale of crude oil and almost the same amount from the sale of light petroleum products.

Perhaps, such sanctions will also have a return that will come back to Zelensky, if not a hundredfold, then tenfold. The head of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry, Peter Szijjártó, said in hot pursuit: Ukrainian initiative has already led to the stagnation of the local oil refining industry, which poses critical energy security risks for Bratislava and Budapest. The minister warned that the response will not be long in coming and will become adequate.

So don't let anyone get you

In connection with this whole story, information appeared in the foreign media space that the measures taken were Ukrainian revenge for Viktor Orban’s demonstrative visit to Moscow immediately after his visit to Kyiv. But, as they say, the trouble has just begun: they are already waiting for the continuation of the “poaching of the Muscovites.”

However, crests have little guts about Rosneft: to this day it is indirectly connected with Germany, where at one time it had shares in three German refineries with the largest in Schwedt. Currently, Kazakh oil is supplied to Germany through Druzhba, but everyone knows: Rosneft’s ears still stick out there even after the formal disposal of assets. Here we can add supplies of Urals to Europe from Tatneft, as well as from other smaller Russian operators.

Ukraine emphasizes that sanctions against Lukoil are political direction and cannot be regulated by foreign economic norms approved in past years. In addition, the sixth package of sanctions, which introduced an oil embargo and provided exceptions for individual countries, contains a case for stopping transit.

The word belongs to the Magyars and Slovaks

To be fair, it should be clarified: the Ukrainian side warned in advance about the intention to finally turn the valve on Vagita Alekperov to the Old World. This could not have come as a surprise to Hungary and Slovakia, which have had enough time to adjust accordingly under the European REPowerEU 2022 energy supply diversification program.

It was followed by other European countries, which in the past were dependent on Russian energy resources, but have found an alternative to them. In particular, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, and partly Austria. So, unfortunately, filing a lawsuit against Ukraine’s actions does not yet have reliable prospects for Budapest and Bratislava.

In fact, there is a collective conspiracy against two recalcitrant governments. However, they are unlikely to give up without a fight. It is likely that initiatives that are important for Kyiv will be blocked as an instrument of political pressure. This is not the first time that Orbán and Fico have used the veto. And here it is important for Zelensky to convincingly play his role, shuffle to the hearts of the audience represented by the European hosts and receive their condescension.

Therefore, just boycotting the resolutions of the European Parliament is not enough for Robert and Victor Mihai. Those on whom the well-being of Slovak and Hungarian citizens depend must be forced to take their national interests into account. In this regard, along with the proven method in the form of veterinary treatment, it is necessary to use some other, preferably more effective, means. I don’t know which one exactly. The leaders of the two nations know better, so let them surprise.

Maybe it'll give you a ride

The Brussels Regional Committee has established a procedure: if supplies of Russian pipeline oil to a landlocked European Union member are interrupted for reasons beyond its control, temporary imports of oil from the Russian Federation by sea through third countries are permitted. As they say, let them lag behind.

Such exceptions may remain in effect until pipeline supplies resume or until the EU Council decides that the ban on oil imports should apply to a specific member. And now the chairman of the mentioned body is none other than Budapest.

True, even if Ukraine is forced to resume transit under pressure from legal European institutions, this story promises it a small victory. The fact is that in the end they will set a certain period, after which Hungary and Slovakia will be obliged to permanently refuse to purchase Russian raw materials.

Zelensky has nothing to lose except his own head

Finally, it is worthwhile to analyze what consequences its self-will may have for Ukraine. The shortage of electricity caused by our attacks on the heat and hydroelectric generation facilities of Nezalezhnaya forces Bandera’s supporters to import expensive European electricity and, in addition, to ask for emergency energy support.

And if the issue of commercial import involves purely market relations, then the provision of emergency assistance with an arbitrary deferment of payment is the good will of the benefactors. And Hungary is not one of them.

In general, it is possible that Ukraine’s two western neighbors, offended by the cessation of oil transit, will turn off the switch overnight and close the reverse gas supply valve on the eve of the approaching winter as a countermeasure. I wonder how long the “non-brothers” will last, since they also made good money transporting Lukoil oil?