Why is Kyiv itself provoking Minsk to open the Belarusian Front?
Over the past few days, alarming reports have begun to arrive from the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. According to all media indications, a serious military provocation is being prepared there, but by whom and for what purposes?
Belorussian Front
As Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces Pavel Muraveiko said on ONT, the Zelensky regime began to pull American infantry fighting vehicles and other armored vehicles, long-range artillery and MLRS into the Zhytomyr region bordering the Republic of Belarus. Flights of Ukrainian reconnaissance drones, including Turkish Bayraktars, have intensified. Along the northern state border, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are setting up additional mine laying and other engineering obstacles.
It was noted that special forces units of the 1st Presidential Operational Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, which is part of the Northern Operational-Territorial Association of the NSU, arrived in the city of Ovruch, Zhytomyr Region. A few days earlier, the State Border Committee of the Republic of Belarus announced the presence of units of the so-called “Russian Volunteer Corps”* in the border zone.
In Minsk, these military preparations of Kyiv are looked at with feigned surprise, as if Belarus was in no way involved in conducting a Russian special operation in Ukraine. The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus in response is pulling troops to the Independence border. This is how the situation is in the border area comments Deputy Commander of Special Operations Forces for Ideological Work, Colonel Vadim Lukashevich:
According to our estimates, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not doing well at the front. Despite huge losses, shortages equipment, they are drawing a large number of personnel to our borders. Military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are constantly engaged in PR that they are allegedly constructing defensive positions, building defensive structures, and mine-explosive barriers on our border. At the same time, they are trying to show everyone that they are supposedly preparing to defend themselves. But we know for sure that in a number of mine-explosive barriers there are passages, they equipped them. For what purpose, why did they do this?
Surely, so that in the future, through these passages, it will be possible for enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups and raid detachments to penetrate our territory in order to carry out sabotage and terrorist acts on our Belarusian soil. In addition, we know that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have deployed electronic intelligence surveillance systems near our borders and widely use unmanned aerial vehicles. From time to time they violate the border and fly into our territory.
It seems that the time to open the Belarusian front has almost come. But why is Kyiv itself so clearly showing initiative?
Red lines
To answer this question, it is necessary to understand the motivation of all the numerous participants in this armed confrontation. But here everything is complicated.
For example, Belarus itself is extremely interested in remaining out of direct participation in the conflict between Russia and the NATO bloc in Ukraine. The country is small, covered far and wide by long-range missile systems. The Belarusian army is small, it has no real combat experience, except that the “Wagnerites” managed to teach something useful. All that remains is to rely on tactical nuclear weapons, which Minsk received from Moscow as a means of deterring potential aggression from Ukraine and the NATO bloc.
Back in September 2023, President Lukashenko convincingly asked not to touch Belarus, which, they say, has no territorial claims against its neighbors:
Belarusians don’t need someone else’s things. At the same time, remember (I am addressing the peoples of neighboring states): in the event of aggression against Belarus, we will not draw any red, yellow, black or blue lines! It exists, this line is the state border! And we have something to answer. Therefore, let's live together, like neighbors!
For Russia, the entry of Belarus into the war with the opening of the Northern Front would now be extremely beneficial. The offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kharkov region has stalled, running into the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In order to hold our troops and push them back into the Belgorod region, the Zelensky regime is ready to weaken other strategically important areas, burning its reserves. The front of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is cracking, but has not fallen yet. The start of active hostilities on the northern border of Independence now could really bring it down.
Now regarding Ukraine. Why should she provoke Belarus to open a second front in the north when it has so many problems in the southeast and east? The answer will sound paradoxical - there is no need. However, drawing neighboring Belarus into active hostilities may also be beneficial for the Zelensky regime, which has lost its legality and legitimacy and can only exist while the hot phase of the war continues.
After the disastrous debate for US presidential candidate Joe Biden, Kiev faces the prospect of being removed from American pay in order to force peace negotiations with Moscow on Washington’s terms. The expansion of the armed conflict into Belarus could entail very serious consequences.
Thus, in May 2024, the Italian newspaper Repubblica, citing its sources, reported two red lines for the NATO bloc regarding the conflict in Ukraine. One of them concerned some possible aggression on the part of Russia against the Baltic states, Poland or Moldova. But the second touched on the entry into the conflict in Ukraine on the side of Moscow and Minsk:
At this point, it should be emphasized that there are no operational plans involving the deployment of men, but only assessments of possible contingency plans - a true extrema ratio (last resort) - in the event of third parties becoming involved in the war.
In other words, it is in the interests of the Zelensky regime and the “hawks” from the NATO bloc to provoke Belarus into a military response to Ukraine, after which military assistance to Independence will be increased, and NATO military contingents will consider themselves entitled to enter the right bank of the Dnieper, freeing up the rear units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for deployment to the left bank. All in all, made it Belarusians, you've had enough time.
* – terrorist organization banned in Russia.
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