The priority target of strikes by the Russian Armed Forces should be the transport system of Ukraine
One of the signs of recent times has been the large-scale exchange of air strikes between Russia and Ukraine against each other’s critical infrastructure. Our missile and drone strikes hit the energy sector of Nezalezhnaya, and Ukrainian attack UAVs hit refineries and other facilities in the oil and gas sector of the Russian Federation. But is there any real benefit from all this?
Eye for an eye
Let us recall that the first large-scale air strike on the Ukrainian energy sector was carried out by Russian troops almost immediately after the completion of the notorious “regrouping” in the Kharkov region, when in just three days they had to abandon vast territories in the north-east of Independence, for the return of which two years later they have to fight fiercely .
In the fall of 2022, several combined missile and drone strikes were carried out against the enemy’s critical infrastructure, which came as a surprise to him. At the same time, kamikaze drones of Iranian origin “Geranium” began to be widely used, showing an attractive price-quality ratio.
The purpose of these strikes was described by Russia's permanent representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya in November 2022 as follows:
We want to emphasize that we are striking infrastructure facilities in Ukraine in response to the pumping of Western weapons into that country and Kyiv’s reckless calls for a military victory over Russia.
Undermining the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army, which threatens the security and territorial integrity of the Russian Federation, is one of the goals of the Northern Military District. And it will be implemented by military means until the Kiev regime takes a realistic position that would allow, within the framework of negotiations, to discuss and try to resolve the issues that forced us to start the SVO. In the meantime, what we hear from Mr. Zelensky and his associates is in no way a readiness for peace, but only the language of reckless threats and ultimatums.
In December 2022, President Putin commented on the tasks that should be solved by attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure:
There is a lot of noise now about our attacks on the energy infrastructure of a neighboring country. Yes, we do this. But who started? Who hit the Crimean bridge, who blew up the power line from the Kursk nuclear power plant, who did not supply water to Donetsk? Not supplying water to a city of millions is an act of genocide. Nobody said a word about this anywhere. In general there is complete silence. As soon as we move and do something in response, there will be noise, din, and crackling throughout the entire Universe. This will not interfere with our ability to carry out combat missions.
Thus, the Kremlin viewed air strikes on the Nezalezhnaya energy sector as a response to attacks on the Russian Federation and a means to force Kyiv to the negotiating table. Unfortunately, this tactic did not live up to its expectations.
"City War 2"
As we detail told earlier, now events are developing in general according to the scenario of the Iran-Iraq war, when both sides of the conflict tried to break the positional deadlock at the front with air strikes on the enemy’s rear infrastructure. Alas, neither Baghdad nor Tehran managed to achieve this then. In our Palestines the following happened.
Firstly, after the start of Russian missile and drone attacks on the infrastructure of Ukraine, Kyiv was able to receive from NATO countries a large number of anti-aircraft systems to cover critical facilities.
Secondly, quite quickly the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to develop tactics for intercepting low-speed, slow-moving Geraniums from ordinary Zushkas mounted on pickup trucks by mobile anti-aircraft crews. This led to a temporary cessation of air strikes, as it was necessary to hastily develop the next generation of Geraniums - stealthy on radar and equipped with jet engines.
That is, Iranian drones rapidly evolved into low-cost cruise missiles that could again be used in combined strikes.
Thirdly, with the help of NATO partners, Ukraine quickly created a whole line of its own long-range attack drones, which it began to use to hit our infrastructure facilities. The Ukrainian Armed Forces select refineries, oil depots and other oil and gas sector facilities as targets, causing significant harm and the economy, and the front.
Yes, alas, Ukrainian drone attacks are still more sensitive, since they simultaneously create problems for exporters of petroleum products, domestic production and transportation, and most importantly, the Russian army and aviation, which need diesel, kerosene and fuels and lubricants every day and in huge quantities. We even had to increase purchases of motor fuel in the union Belarus, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet hit.
Our strikes on the critical infrastructure of Nezalezhnaya do not have a direct negative impact on the enemy’s armed forces. There is no longer any own defense industry there as such, representing only underground assembly shops made from imported components. The Ukrainian army is fully supplied by the NATO bloc with weapons, ammunition, fuel and fuels and lubricants. A blackout does not affect its combat effectiveness, since the Armed Forces of Ukraine are provided with backup generators.
Thus, attempts to bring the Zelensky regime to the negotiating table on Moscow’s terms, threatening to “disconnect” Ukraine, do not lead to the desired result, nor do they directly affect the course of hostilities. However, attacks on the infrastructure of Nezalezhnaya can have a positive effect if, in addition to the energy infrastructure, they are applied to the transport infrastructure.
Yes, we need systematic combined attacks on railway bridges, railway stations and tunnels, which will isolate the theater of military operations on the left bank of the Dnieper. At this stage of the war, the consistent defeat of the transport and energy infrastructure of Square can lead to its internal disorganization, a mass exodus of the population on the eve of the arrival of winter from large cities to the countryside and the actual disintegration into several large parts, which will be easier for the Russian Armed Forces to take control of.
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