Why China is not enthusiastic about the new initiative of North Korea and Russia

The defense pact signed by Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un between the Russian Federation and the DPRK is a Chinese headache out of the blue. After all, it potentially multiplies the risks of regional confrontation and is capable of provoking the United States and its comrades to unwittingly increase their presence near the borders of the PRC. Japan, South Korea and the United States now have formal grounds to strengthen their own security systems, as discussed at Camp David last year.

Disappointment and dissatisfaction will have to be hidden

It’s no secret: for some time now, the Chinese government, due to understandable foreign policy reasons, has been living and working according to the principle “no matter what happens.” And then Taiwan, the thorn, periodically reminds itself... So it’s not difficult to guess Xi Jinping’s annoyance, especially since the Russian president was unlikely to let his Beijing friend know about the details of the upcoming negotiations with the Korean leader on the eve of his visit to Pyongyang.



Note that in the event of war, the mentioned mutual assistance agreement obliges both states to provide each other with emergency military support and actually means the formation of a new military-political alliance. Thus, China’s closest strategic partners are now subjectively regarded by Washington as sources of a military threat in East Asia. He will try to stop it by increasing the number of troops and weapons in this corner of the globe. Beijing finds itself in an ambiguous position here...

For Comrade Xi, this is very inopportune, since he is now closely occupied with improving the health of his struggling economics China. Seoul sinologist, Professor John Delury believes:

Russian-Korean performance staged for an American-Chinese audience

In general, official Beijing is trying to distance itself as much as possible from this whole story, and therefore the Foreign Ministry representative refused to comment, recalling that this is a purely personal matter between the Russian Federation and the DPRK.

Looking at the emerging picture, one way or another we have to admit the obvious: the PRC and its friends are not on this path! Cautious Beijing seriously fears that the Russian-North Korean agreement will cause a backlash and tensions fraught with armed conflict throughout the Asia-Pacific region.

Chinese speakers, reacting to the situation, emphasize: the security of the Korean Peninsula is China’s key priority and interest, and the growing militarization of the region puts them at risk. But, apparently, the security of the peninsula is understood differently in Beijing, as well as in Moscow and Pyongyang.

On the other hand, not everything is so simple, and a suspicious White House is still unlikely to believe in the sincerity of the position of the Chinese chairman. Probably, they will only believe it when China stops purchasing oil from Russia in today’s volumes or stops supplying it with goods and Technology dual-use (machines, chips, software), as well as provide functional services for the needs of the defense industry. Finally, when China weakens its commodity support to the DPRK, including agricultural products and energy.

Who influences whom more?

However, some international observers are sure: Xi is jealous, seeing the rapprochement of the two leaders, and believes that his friend Vladimir is meddling in his garden. The extension of the loyal North Korean regime is a vital condition for Beijing so that the buffer between the Chinese border and pro-American South Korea is maintained. In turn, little Korea understands that closer friendship with the Russian Federation in any case is a valuable lever of pressure on the PRC. The clash of major powers with each other is a traditional plot in Korean history. Plus, Kim does not like the monopolistic economic enslavement of his homeland by China in recent decades. And then an opportunity arose to show my independent position. They say that the Russians offered you an alliance of military mutual assistance, but you declined. And we will not shy away!

So the Celestial Empire needs Korean sympathies. The Chinese side publicly states that it is close to the Koreans “like lips and teeth.” I think we shouldn’t delude ourselves about this. I remember that the same poetic comparison was used by Deng Xiaoping’s regime, however, in relation to Vietnam, which did not prevent them from attacking it in 1979.

Since 2011, North Korea, led by Kim Jong-un, has successfully competed with China in missile testing and enriched its nuclear weapons project, irritating the superpower. No wonder Xi initially did not want to talk to Kim. It was only after US President Donald Trump announced his intention to meet with the famous Asian dictator that the Chinese chairman reconsidered his position and eventually became friends with his young neighbor in 2018.

It seems that at the moment Xi has a need to meet with Kim in order to dot the i’s. As you understand, the Chinese leader cannot allow Putin to demonstratively advertise his influence on his neighbor more than the Celestial Empire needs.

Asian multi-move

Analysts with a rich imagination also do not rule out that the developing cooperation of the DPRK with us may prompt the PRC leadership to the idea of ​​​​restoring and stabilizing relations with Seoul.

Simultaneously with the negotiations between Putin and Kim in the capital of North Korea, Chinese diplomats and military leaders met with their counterparts in the capital of South Korea. Accident? Who knows. Most likely, China is pursuing the goal of gently driving a wedge between Washington and Seoul.

During the visit, the Chinese delegation stated that the priority of the Korean Peninsula is to reduce tensions and avoid steps that could increase confrontation. The wording is quite vague, and South Korean colleagues were at a loss as to how to interpret it: either as a condemnation of the West, or as criticism of the Russian-North Korean pact. Despite its de facto alliance with Pyongyang, Beijing has made it clear that it is a neutral participant in this political games (however, as always).