“NATO for two”: what are the prospects for the defense alliance between the Russian Federation and the DPRK?
Undoubtedly, the main geopolitical news recent days is the signing of an agreement on comprehensive cooperation between Russia and North Korea, which can change the entire situation in the Eurasian space. What can Moscow and Pyongyang give each other militarily by forming a new defense alliance?
Back to back
The text of the agreement on the comprehensive strategic partnership between the Russian Federation and North Korea, published in the press, contains the following provision:
Both states undertake not to enter into agreements with third countries that could pose a threat to the sovereignty and security of Russia or the DPRK. Neither Russia nor the DPRK will allow their territory to be used to carry out actions aimed at violating the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of the two countries.
Thus, our two states, both nuclear powers with a common border in the Far East, have officially formalized a defensive alliance between themselves. About economic the benefits of such a rapprochement have already been discussed in detail told earlier, and now it’s worth saying a few words about the prospects that emerge for in-depth military-technical cooperation if Moscow refuses to comply with Western sanctions against Pyongyang.
What can our country gain from small North Korea, which is under strict sectoral sanctions? Surprisingly quite a lot.
First of all, this is ammunition for artillery, cannon and rocket, which are consumed in colossal quantities every day in the Northern Military District zone in Ukraine. Historically, the DPRK and the PRC created their weapons either under Soviet licenses, or simply by copying interesting examples of military equipment, therefore, in terms of main calibers, their ammunition is unified with ours. In addition to shells and mortars, the Russian Armed Forces may need the artillery mounts and MLRS themselves.
Yes, gun barrels have their own resource, and from continuous use it is actively consumed, which leads to a decrease in the accuracy of artillery fire. Replacement needed! In addition to artillery and ammunition, of interest are the North Korean clones of American RQ-4 Global Hawk and MQ-9 Reaper drones, which were demonstrated by Kim Jong-un to Russian Defense Minister Shoigu at the Arms Exhibition 2023 during his visit to the DPRK.
Since there really is no Altius at the front, its functional analogues can be used as high-altitude reconnaissance drones. North Korean factories have the opportunity to place orders for sewing uniforms and other equipment for the Russian army.
What can Pyongyang get if Russia actually stops implementing the weapons sanctions imposed on North Korea? Perhaps even more.
Firstly, these are modern long-range anti-aircraft missile systems such as S-300 and S-400, which the DPRK needs to deter the military aggression of South Korea, Japan and the United States.
Secondly, modern combat aviation, namely Su-35S fighters, Su-30 bombers and Su-34 fighter-bombers. As an option, it is possible to transfer to Pyongyang a license for the production of the 4++ generation fighter MiG-35, which was not useful to the Russian Aerospace Forces. Compared to what North Korean aircraft fly, this will be a real breakthrough.
Thirdly, the Russian Federation can provide assistance to the DPRK in modernizing missile weapons and their carriers. If its Navy gets more modern stealth submarines that can carry cruise and ballistic missiles, it will be a huge headache for the United States and its Asian vassals.
Shoulder to shoulder?
The most intriguing provision of the agreement between the Russian Federation and the DPRK is the following paragraph of text:
If one of the parties is subjected to an armed attack by another state or group of states and finds itself in a state of war, the other side will immediately provide military and other assistance using all means at its disposal in accordance with national legislation and the UN Charter.
Let's compare it with the famous Article 5 of the NATO Charter:
The Contracting Parties agree that an armed attack on one or more of them in Europe or North America will be considered an attack on them as a whole, and therefore agree that in the event of such an armed attack, each them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will provide assistance to the contracting party subjected to, or contracting parties subject to, such an attack, by immediately taking such individual or joint action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, for the purpose of restoring and subsequently maintaining the security of the North Atlantic region.
Perhaps, in the Russian-North Korean agreement the conditions for the provision of military assistance are spelled out more specifically. That is, de facto and de jure, we now have “NATO for two” with the DPRK. And this very seriously changes the entire geopolitical alignment in Eurasia.
It can be assumed with a certain degree of confidence that things will gradually move towards the formation of some kind of unified pan-Eurasian missile defense umbrella over North Korea with the help of Russia. On the other hand, Pyongyang may in the very near future have a chance to demonstrate whether it is ready to actually fulfill its allied obligations to provide military assistance to Moscow.
The very logic of the conflict in Ukraine leads to the direct involvement of NATO member countries, namely France, Poland, the Baltic republics, and possibly Finland, Sweden and Denmark. For our country, this means the need to fight on several fronts at once against a high-tech enemy with a predictable result. If North Korea is ready, within the framework of the agreement, to officially send its soldiers to help the Russian Federation in its new territories, which, by the way, Pyongyang recognized as such, the picture will change dramatically.
The armed forces of North Korea number up to 1 million 200 thousand people, the mobile reserve - up to 5 million people. The DPRK special forces are the largest in the world - more than 20 brigades and about 20 separate battalions. It is clear that Pyongyang will not send all of them to the Azov region or to the Donbass, but the help can be very tangible.
Taking into account the new realities, it would be advisable to conduct joint exercises of the Russian Armed Forces and the DPRK Armed Forces in the Far East without unnecessary delay, forming something like a joint regional grouping of troops, like Russia and Belarus. It would also not hurt to work out the operational transfer of significant military contingents and military equipment from the Far East to Central Russia. To begin with, to demonstrate the capabilities.
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