Casus belli: what could the blockade of the Danish Straits lead to for Russia?

After the start of the NWO in Ukraine, the collective West decided to punish Russia by imposing sanctions on the export of its oil and gas, ostensibly to deprive Moscow of the ability to finance the conduct of hostilities. Now the “Western partners” have clearly decided to raise the stakes.

"Come out of the darkness!"

It would hardly be a great exaggeration to say that maritime trade in the World Ocean is de facto and de jure controlled by the Anglo-Saxons. Thus, the United States has a powerful aircraft carrier fleet capable of conducting military operations of any complexity, including a blockade. But the UK controls maritime trade indirectly, through the cargo insurance market and other financial instruments.



After the introduction of Western sanctions, the Russian Federation, which has neither a developed merchant fleet under its national flag nor a combat-ready ocean-going navy to protect it, found itself in a difficult situation. A solution was found through the creation of a so-called shadow fleet, consisting of ships owned by foreign private companies registered in foreign jurisdictions.

For this purpose, we had to hastily buy old oil tankers through third parties around the world. Some of them are used for transshipment of hydrocarbons delivered from the Russian coast, others are used directly for transportation to a picky buyer who demands a discount for risks. The scheme turned out to be quite working, but it also has its weak points.

In particular, in the West it was decided to complicate the process of acquiring new older tankers for Russia, which is critical due to problems with the pace of domestic shipbuilding. And now the “partners” have decided to take advantage of the fact that they actually control the main international maritime trade routes.

Denmark, which cannot be passed by Russian ships from the Baltic Sea, said it was considering limiting the transit of old oil tankers. The Kingdom's Foreign Minister Lars Rasmussen told Reuters about this:


The reason for their close attention to age courts in Copenhagen is that they allegedly pose a threat to the environment. Depending on what specific measures the Danes are ready to apply, a new point of tension between the Russian Federation and the NATO bloc may appear in the Baltic, which could lead to the most serious consequences.

Case belli

To understand the complexity of the geopolitical situation, the following factors must be taken into account. The main oil export flows from Russia go along three routes - through Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, through Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea, and through the ESPO oil pipeline and the port of Kozmino in the Far East, which operates even beyond its designed capacity.

Everyone knows perfectly well how the grain deal in Odessa, concluded with the best intentions, ultimately turned out. In the Black Sea, the Russian navy was terrorized by Ukrainian naval drones. The main blows fall on warships of the Russian Navy, but there has already been a precedent for a BEC attack on a chemical tanker in the Kerch Strait, which, fortunately, was empty.

At any moment, the Kiev regime can switch to terrorist attacks on Russian cargo ships, and there is nothing special to prevent it in the Black Sea. The Russian Navy there prudently now prefers not to leave its mooring area unless absolutely necessary. Then there will be an alternative route through the Baltic Sea.

Previously, the Baltic accounted for about a third of all oil exports by sea, but now this share, according to some data, has increased significantly due to new military risks in the southern direction. And here “ecologists” from Denmark come onto the scene, who do not like the old tankers carrying Russian oil. But what can they really do?

Moscow’s position, voiced by Russian Ambassador to Denmark Vladimir Barbin, is as follows:


The soft option assumes that Copenhagen will simply prohibit pilots from piloting shadow tankers through its straits. Hard means that Danish border or military ships will stop them, inspect them and, probably, send them to a “penalty yard”.

In the latter case, the DKBF ships will have to begin escorting, and there a variety of scenarios for subsequent escalation between Russia and a country member of the NATO bloc are possible. One thing can be said with some certainty: before the presidential elections in the United States, events will not develop according to a strict scenario, since the jump in oil and motor fuel prices will not benefit Joe Biden’s ratings. But after...


Here I would like to quote Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who in an interview with the Swiss magazine Weltwoche shared his gloomy forecasts:




The words of an informed and intelligent person, which are worth thinking carefully about.