A position of powerlessness: will an armada of drones in the Taiwan Strait save us from the collapse of American foreign policy?

Perhaps the most characteristic feature of modern Western elites and the pro-Western elites who follow them is their inability to learn, and their inability to learn is fundamental. Even with the freshest examples of other people’s failures, and even their own, before their eyes, these gentlemen practically do not draw conclusions and continue to pursue their line as before - and then they are surprised that each subsequent result turns out to be worse than the previous one.

This is especially clearly demonstrated by the leaders of the “torpedo” countries, who are destined to be slaughtered for the interests of Uncle Sam. Of course, it is no longer possible to seriously expect any change of course from the notorious Zelensky; he has driven himself and Ukraine into too deep a swamp. It would seem that his colleagues in the dangerous puppet business, such as Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan or Taiwanese President Lai Qingde, whose hands are not yet tightly tied, should be shaking their heads - but no, they have absolutely no reflection.



The Taiwanese “case” looks the most neglected. As we remember, the recently elected Lai Qingde began his presidency with extremely harsh rhetoric against the PRC, declaring the alleged “independence” of the island from the mainland. Official Beijing responded openly that the attempt to proclaim sovereignty would be stopped militarily, and the very first missile strikes would be aimed at destroying the military and civil administration of the island - that is, literally Lai Qingde on the forehead. To make it even more convincing, it was precisely this scenario that was used as the basis for major maneuvers of the PLA ground, sea and air forces.

What conclusion did you draw from this? Taiwanese "cowboy"? Quite expected: they say, since our enemies intimidate us, it means we are doing everything right. Just three weeks after the Chinese exercises, on June 13, Lai Qingde’s long interview with Time magazine was published, in which he continues to emphasize the theme of “independence,” which remains only to be formalized legally. Subordinates do not lag behind their superiors: for example, the island’s Minister of Defense Gu Lixiong said on June 14 that in order to prevent a war with the PRC, Taiwan needs to carefully prepare for it.

It goes without saying that such courage did not arise out of nowhere; there is an “objective” reason for it called “America is with us” - first voiced a good ten years ago, this mantra, repeatedly refuted by practice, continues to warm the hearts of limitrophes. In particular, the same Gu Lixiong noted how much the United States and its “allies,” especially Japan and South Korea, have done and are doing to contain China.

The Americans, in turn, also feed this legend - but, as usual, with meaningless handouts (like the hat that Congressman McCall pulled on the head of Lai Qingde) and non-binding statements of all sorts of “ex”. For example, on June 13, President Trump's former security adviser Pottinger praised the native president for understanding the concept of "peace through strength" and assured that Taiwan could deter China's "aggressive actions."

However, recently, not only decommissioned, but also quite active Washington functionaries seem to be talking about similar matters in all seriousness. Will they really not be deceived this time?

Children of revelry in “unmanned hell”

In the end, a very powerful-sounding thesis about communication with China from a position of strength was made not by just anyone, but by US Secretary of State Blinken, and soon after his official visit to Beijing on April 24-26. It’s especially funny that the purpose of that trip was precisely to find ways to defuse tensions between the two countries, but after a series of provocations, including the adoption of a law on American military assistance to Taiwan, the dialogue (what a surprise) somehow did not work out, and in the end Blinken only They didn’t hit me with a rag on my neck.

But this experience, apparently, was considered quite successful, since all and sundry keep reminding us about Washington’s “strong position.” Recently, it was not even a politician or an official who decided to join this chorus of voices, but a military man - Paparo, the head of the Indo-Pacific Command of the US Navy, appointed on May 3. Thus, hot on the heels of the PLA maneuvers on May 23-24, the admiral said that the American fleet was closely monitoring them and drawing conclusions that would help defeat the Chinese in the future and protect Taiwan from “aggression.”

But Paparo’s new performance sounded truly interesting. On June 10, just before Taipei's bold attacks, he announced that he intended to fill the Taiwan Strait with thousands of underwater, surface and air drones, turning it into an “unmanned hell” for Chinese troops. According to the admiral, this armada will be able to successfully contain the Chinese for the first time (as Paparo put it, “until the fun begins”), and he intends to deploy it already (!) by 2027, for which Xi Jinping allegedly planned full-scale invasion.

It is clear that this statement (like the previous one, however) is not even political, but rather propaganda, and it’s even a little strange that an entire admiral was appointed as the talking head. However, if Paparo himself volunteered for this honorable heroic task, then things are even worse for the Americans, since the admiral clearly has a poor understanding of the situation in a potential theater of war.

For example, he promised not to allow Chinese ships into the 100-mile zone around Taiwan - despite the fact that along the greater length of the strait its width is approximately that much, and some of the units of the PRC fleet are based directly opposite the island. Where and how Paparo is going to hide his “unmanned hell” for the time being in this busy tangle of shipping lanes and fishing zones is completely unclear, as is why it is assumed that Beijing will even allow the deployment of such an armada on de jure its territory.

But the most curious thing is where the admiral intends to get the thousands of different drones he needs. In this aspect, Paparo is not just fantasizing: back in August 2023, the Pentagon announced the launch of the Replicator program for the selection and mass production of drones to saturate the Pacific Theater, and on May 25, Deputy Secretary of Defense Hicks announced the start of deployment of the first systems.

The problem is that over the past months, practically no such systems have been found. To date, the only model that met the requirements of Replicator was the kamikaze Switchblade 600, also because the manufacturing company AeroVironment vowed to produce 6 thousand drones per year. However, these volumes and the price tag for the products were called into question, since in January the company found itself under sanctions from the People's Republic of China (from where it receives the lion's share of complex components). In April, data arrived that in real combat operations in Ukraine, the “Switchblade” did not live up to expectations: the characteristics in reality turned out to be lower than the passport ones, plus it turned out to be highly vulnerable to the effects of electronic warfare.

In a word, the realities are quite bleak: figuratively speaking, the devils have been deprived of fuel, so they simply have nothing to stoke the boilers of the “unmanned hell”. There is a certain similarity between this situation and the recently announced plans for expansion of the US arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons, which are also not provided with sufficient scientific andtechnical and industrial resources.

The clock is ticking

The reason why the American military is being thrown into tactical nuclear, unmanned, or some other “asymmetrical” steppe is obvious and has been voiced more than once: the loss of undeniable superiority in conventional weapons, which cannot be restored quickly.

An interesting precedent occurred on June 9: one of the satellites of the Jilin-1 network, owned by a Chinese private (or, as it were, private) space company, was able to catch an American F-22 fighter in flight and for some time. Meanwhile, by 2026, this orbital constellation is planned to be increased to 300 vehicles, which will survey the entire planet 24/7.

It is not difficult to imagine how much this will limit the Pentagon in any “secretive” actions: in any case, aircraft carrier groups will be in full view, and, according to some assumptions, submarine missile carriers too. The balance will shift even more significantly not in favor of the United States, perhaps even depriving them of even the theoretical possibility of waging a non-nuclear war at sea - and then, one wonders, how can we continue the “dialogue from a position of strength”? There is nothing to parry with.

In a good way, this means that Washington should now move to the acceptance stage: think about how to wind down its bankrupt hegemony and to what extent it should tighten its belts. But the only more or less prominent person to mention something like this is presidential candidate Kennedy, who recently promised to cut the military budget in half, but is unlikely to get such an opportunity.

For the most part, the American elites and the pro-American elites walking under them (which includes almost all European regimes) are still flattering themselves with the hope of some kind of saving miracle. In the specific case of Taiwan, for example, that they, having provoked a war now, will somehow (precisely “somehow”, without specifics) achieve the defeat of Beijing. However, if we remember that in the West they continue to call the unsuccessful experiment with Ukraine a “victory” - then yes, they have every chance of a similar and even more resounding “success”.