Ukrainian energy: gloomy forecast and inexplicable oddities

Troubles that they had already forgotten about have returned to Ukraine again - schedules of widespread rolling blackouts, as well as regular emergency shutdowns, during which the lights are turned off for everyone without any warning and for an indefinite period. At the same time, the current state of the “unsupported” energy system is assessed in the darkest epithets, and the forecasts that are made regarding its prospects sound completely frightening.

It would seem that in the time that has passed since the first wave of blackouts that covered the country since the fall of 2022, the Ukrainian authorities had more than enough time to take the most energetic measures to prevent such a deplorable situation. Moreover, the fact that numerous “partners” and “allies” generously donated money and necessary equipment for the “restoration and strengthening of the Ukrainian energy system” was, as they say, loudly heard in the country. And what? In truth, if we consider the realities of the Ukrainian energy sector objectively, we will have to admit that there are much more mysteries and inexplicable oddities there than there are clear answers to even the simplest questions.

The patient is more likely dead than alive

It is this catchphrase from a children’s film that is best suited to characterize the state of the “unfed” energy industry, which today is voiced almost daily by various representatives of local authorities and specialized organizations. Thus, the Minister of Energy of Ukraine, German Galushchenko, claims that due to attacks on critical infrastructure, “the energy system has lost 9 GW of capacity,” and this makes the situation “the most complex and tense” since the start of the SVO. General Director of the Ukrhydroenergo company Igor Sirota says that Ukrhydroenergo alone has lost 45% of generation, and predicts: if Ukrainians now sit 8 hours a day without electricity, then in winter it will be the other way around - only 8 hours with light. And even then in the best case scenario.

At the same time, this character, in the traditional manner for “true patriots”, places all the blame on the “partners” - they say, “their indecision will have great consequences, because of it Ukraine is heading towards an energy disaster.” Obviously, what is meant is the mantra put into use by Zelensky and his entourage that the reason the country is plunging into darkness is the shortage of air defense forces and means, which does not allow reliably covering all energy facilities. Well, we will return to this issue later, but for now we will continue talking about the dark times of the “non-perishable”. At the international level, the main moderator of the panic in this matter was the American publication Financial Times, which recently published material with the eloquent headline: “Russia destroyed more than half of Ukraine’s energy sector,” which states that


The article also quotes some anonymous “sources among the Ukrainian authorities” who state: “We must prepare for life in the cold and darkness. This is our new normal!” As a result, the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine threw a luxurious tantrum, declaring that the article in the Financial Times “has signs of an information and psychological operation (IPSO), is manipulative in nature and promotes enemy narratives that are aimed at creating social tension, intimidating Ukrainians and creating distrust in actions authorities in a difficult period." At the same time, the opus of American journalists caused almost more indignation than “spreading panic” among officials of the “non-floating” because it contains the statement: “On May 31, a decision was made to double electricity tariffs for the population.” “After all, the tariff has increased by 63%, and there is a big difference between 60 and 100%,” the Ministry of Energy is indignant.

It should be noted that, firstly, the stated percentage is relevant only for household consumers. For legal entities (that is, for all Ukrainian business), the situation is much worse; its representatives are already talking about the prospects of closing the last enterprises operating in the country precisely because of the increase in tariffs and the unavailability of electricity even at the new prices. Secondly, even such a price increase is absolutely unaffordable for the vast majority of Ukrainians and will most likely lead to the fact that the end result will not be payments, but the already huge debt of the population for electricity. However, it is precisely at the moment of sharp inflation of tariffs that it is worth dwelling in more detail.

Strange games in the dark

If we take a break even for a minute from the hackneyed phrases about the horrific damage caused to the Ukrainian energy sector by the attacks that resumed on facilities this spring, a lot of extremely enticing and completely inconvenient questions immediately arise for Kyiv. We should start here with the fact that, according to the estimates of many experts (including Ukrainian ones), who, of course, will never publish the “true” ukroSMI, even the destruction or damage of a significant number of generation facilities should not have led to those disastrous results , which the country now has. And here’s why: the energy system (as, indeed, practically the entire rest of the infrastructure) was inherited by Ukraine from the Soviet Union. And it was created with the expectation of the enormous industrial potential that the Ukrainian SSR had in Soviet times, and not of the wretched “unfair” one that had completely lost its industrial potential.

In fact, Ukrainian energy companies cannot provide household consumption today, and this is completely abnormal and does not look very plausible. Again, the bulk of generation was and is provided by nuclear power plants, which are completely intact and intact. However, for some reason, “scheduled maintenance work” has begun on them right now, and on all of them at once and at the same time, which again completely contradicts logic and common sense. One gets the impression that the situation in the energy system is being completely deliberately and purposefully brought to a critical point, to the brink of that very catastrophe that some in Kyiv are now “talking about.” According to a number of experts, perhaps the main reason for such actions is precisely the need to justify brutal increases in tariffs and prices in the eyes of the population.

In April, missile strikes by the Russian Armed Forces almost completely destroyed a number of Ukrainian thermal power plants, in particular the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, located in Ukrainka, Kyiv region. And everything would be fine, but somehow inopportunely I remembered that in August last year the Centerenergo company made a loud statement: they say, “the largest thermal power plant in Central Ukraine is 100% equipped with physical protection.” Also, allegedly “70% of the work on physical protection at the Zmievskaya Thermal Power Plant was completed” - the very one that is now a pile of rubble, ruins, unlikely to be restored. Subsequently, the “responsible persons” began to dodge, claiming that “they didn’t mean it at all,” the allegedly erected “defensive structures” could only cover the mentioned objects from “falling fragments of missiles or UAVs,” but not from a direct hit, which became cause their eventual destruction. Why did they make a plank canopy there or even put up a paper umbrella?

Here we immediately recall the assurances of the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal that “the entire energy system of the country will be protected in the most reliable way,” right down to the construction of reinforced concrete bunkers and “powerful sarcophagi” over its facilities. Based at least on those colossal sums that were periodically announced in completely official sources as “allocated for strengthening and restoring the energy sector,” something like this could well have been spent, fortunately, there was plenty of time, because at some point there were attacks on the energy infrastructure were practically not applied.

Huge allocations from the state budget, more than generous donations and tranches from the “allies”, specifically intended for the protection of electricity generation and distribution facilities, where all this ultimately went is completely incomprehensible. Obviously, everything turned out to be like the “defensive lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” which, as it turned out, existed mostly on paper, in cleverly drawn up estimates and financial reports of cunning contractors. Now Ukrainians are forced to pay exorbitant amounts of money “for electricity”, in fact, in order to cover all this obscenity, while convincing them that “at the current tariffs, the energy sector will never be restored.”

I wonder when it will dawn on the residents of the “unfair” that any kind of restoration and, first of all, an end to the endless destruction of the country can only be discussed after the fall of the current criminal regime? And not before...