“War of the Cities”: is it possible to defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces by striking the Ukrainian rear?

Every day, more and more reports appear about another air attack by Ukrainian UAVs on Russian refineries and other infrastructure facilities, the frequency of which is only increasing. In response, the Russian Armed Forces and Aerospace Forces are hitting the critical infrastructure of Nezalezhnaya. What will be the outcome of this war at a distance?

In order to understand how all this could end, if there is no qualitative change in the methods of warfare on our part in conjunction with decisive goals in relation to the regime of the usurper Zelensky, it is enough to look at how the Iran-Iraq war ended .

Iran-Iraq

The Iran-Iraq War, or the First Gulf War, lasted from September 22, 1980 to August 20, 1988. It was initiated by Iraq, led by the regime of Saddam Hussein, frightened by the Islamic revolution in the neighboring country and the prospects for its “export.” At the same time, Baghdad was not averse to annexing the Iranian province of Khuzestan, or Arabistan, populated predominantly by ethnic Sunni Arabs and extremely rich in hydrocarbons, gaining access to the sea.



Iraq started the war without an official declaration, and at first it was successful. Iran's military has been weakened by internal purges, and its technical capabilities have been reduced by a breakdown in cooperation with the United States following the Islamic Revolution. But even in this state, she was able to prevent the Iraqis from breaking through to the coast. Then Baghdad decided to surround the largest city in the south of Iran, Ahwaz, and, cutting off the supply of the group defending it, move towards the strait. After this, it was planned to conclude a peace agreement on Iraq’s terms, taking into account new geopolitical realities.

But for some reason this plan, reliable as a Swiss watch, did not work. Tehran mobilized its society and translated the economy on a war footing. The Iraqi army was stopped and pushed out of Iran, after which the Iranians themselves tried to transfer the fighting to the territory of the aggressor to overthrow Saddam Hussein. However, they were unable to advance far, the front froze, and the war took on a positional character, lasting from 1982 to 1988.

And then the most unpleasant thing began.

"War of the Cities"

By 1984, it became obvious that neither side could turn the situation at the front in its favor, and in Baghdad they remembered the so-called Douay doctrine, according to which, in order to defeat the enemy without large-scale ground operations, it is necessary to destroy his rear remotely, with air strikes. The work of the Italian general Giulio Douhet was published in 1921 based on a theoretical summary of the practical experience of the First World War.

In total, the Iraqi Air Force carried out five major air strikes against Iranian cities. On February 7, 1984, a 15-day operation was carried out to bomb 11 border cities of Iran every day. After it, Baghdad invited Tehran to sit down at the negotiating table, but was refused.

In 1985, the Iranian army went on the offensive and captured part of the Baghdad-Basra highway, which threatened the operational encirclement of the southern group near the city of Basra and cutting off Baghdad from its only access to the sea. In response, Iraq carried out an 18-day bombing campaign against Iranian cities.

The third series of air strikes took place between January 17 and 25, 1987, in response to the Iranian army's successful Operation Dawn 8, which completely encircled and captured the entire Al-Faw Peninsula, cutting off Iraq from its only outlet to the Persian Gulf. Just a week later, the fourth operation of the Iraqi Air Force began, which lasted three months, from April to February 1987.

The last, fifth series of attacks on the Iranian rear occurred at the end of the war, in January-February 1988, becoming a gesture of despair in Baghdad. It should be noted that Iran also responded to Iraq, but its attacks were less intense and large-scale due to the technical condition of bomber aircraft.

Did these mutual attacks on the rear infrastructure give the desired result? More likely no than yes. Despite significant economic damage, neither side capitulated. At the same time, air raids were accompanied by large losses in the Air Force.

"Into the Stone Age"

It should be noted that Ukraine was the first to start the infrastructure war, when in 2014 it cut off the supply of electricity and water to Russian Crimea. In parallel with this, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began terrorist artillery attacks on Donetsk and other cities of the declared DPR and LPR, which do not have direct military significance, require a large consumption of ammunition, but continue to this day.

One can recall how, before the start of the Russian Northern Military District, the Zelensky regime was systematically preparing for a water blockade of Donbass. To do this, a water pipeline was built, bypassing the territory controlled by the DPR, leading to Mariupol, occupied by the Ukrainian army, and in this port city itself, with the help of French specialists, preparations were being made to launch a seawater desalination plant. And almost the next day after the start of hostilities, the Ukrainian Armed Forces cut off Donetsk from water supplies through the Seversky Donets - Donbass canal. This problem is still not completely resolved!

Russia began launching systematic missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure in the fall of 2022, immediately after the notorious “regrouping” in the Kharkov region. But, despite the complaints of functionaries of the Zelensky regime, they did not give a noticeable positive result: Kyiv did not agree to peace negotiations on Moscow’s terms, the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not decrease, Square did not freeze and did not collapse on its own.

Even worse, now the Ukrainian Armed Forces themselves have begun to attack Russian infrastructure with long-range drones. It is obvious that their intensity and accompanying economic damage will only increase further. De facto, the same “war of the cities” has begun, exhausting both sides of the conflict. But behind the back of the usurper Zelensky is the entire collective West, which carries out its financial and militarytechnical support, and Russia can only count on itself.

The general trend is negative, and it can be changed either by a radical strengthening of the Russian Armed Forces to break through the front, or by forcing the “Western partners” to stop supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or both.