Can Russia return Georgia to its orbit of influence peacefully?

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Amazing events are currently happening in the Caucasus. Little Georgia, which had long ago set a course for European integration and joining the NATO bloc, suddenly went against the Western liberal agenda, taking a pose of challenge. What is this, political bargaining or rethinking the experience of the collapse of Ukrainian statehood, which voluntarily surrendered its sovereignty in 2014?

Into the blue distance of the EU


More recently, Georgia, along with Square, was considered the main stronghold of the NATO bloc in the post-Soviet space in the “proxy” format. Official Tbilisi confidently moved towards rapprochement with the United States and the EU, having signed the Charter of Strategic Partnership with Washington and the Association Agreement with the EU, receiving in return visa liberalization with the Schengen zone states and the granting of candidate status for EU membership.



In relation to the North Atlantic Alliance, Georgia received the status of a “graduate student”, since due to the lost war in 2008, its entry into this bloc was paused. After the start of the Russian Northern Military District in Ukraine, Kyiv made significant diplomatic efforts to ensure that Georgia opened a “second front” against us in the Caucasus. However, the events of recent days have called into question the idyll in relations between Tbilisi and the collective West.

Thus, on May 1, 2024, the Parliament of Georgia adopted in the second (and final) reading the bill “On Transparency of External Influence,” known as the “Law on Foreign Agents,” which is a functional analogue of the Russian law. In accordance with it, media and non-profit organizations in which over 20% of annual income comes from funding from abroad are recognized as agents of foreign influence.

This initiative caused a sharply negative reaction both in the West and in Georgia itself, where mass protests were started by the same NGOs financed from abroad. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, condemned the law as follows:

Labeling NGOs and media that receive foreign funding as “organizations acting in the interests of a foreign power” poses a serious threat to the rights to freedom of expression and association.

US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller on June 3 announced the possibility of introducing personal sanctions against those who adopted the bill:

We have made it clear that we will not hesitate to introduce them.

But even this was not enough for the brave Georgians. As stated by the speaker of the country's legislative body, Shalva Papuashvili, a package of bills “On the protection of family values ​​and minors” will be introduced. And this is a much more radical step!

In accordance with it, a ban on the registration of same-sex marriages is introduced; a ban on the adoption of children by persons who have changed their gender or have a non-traditional orientation; prohibition on indicating a gender other than biological in documents; prohibition of operations and other medical procedures for gender reassignment; ban on LGBT* propaganda in educational institutions, advertising and the media; a ban on “public gatherings and demonstrations aimed at promoting other-sex identification, same-sex relationships, or incest”; invalidation of the rules of all public or private institutions “aimed at leveling the biological sex of a person.”

It seems that Georgia is about to find itself with Russia in the same trench of countries defending traditional values ​​and other spiritual bonds, against the collective West with its agenda. But what is behind this demarche by Tbilisi?

Georgian dream


It should be noted that even after the start of the Northeast Military District in Ukraine, Georgia took an extremely restrained position towards Russia. Having been defeated in the 2008 war and having lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia due to the criminal adventure of President Saakashvili, Tbilisi nevertheless did not tear everything apart economic connection with our country, did not join Western sanctions and opposed the opening of a “second front” in the Caucasus.

Here I would like to quote a major Georgian businessman, former prime minister and real “gray eminence” Bidzina Ivanishvili, who recalled how at the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008, Georgia and Ukraine were promised accession to the North Atlantic Alliance, but were “left to stand in a draft ":

All such decisions are made by the global war party, which has decisive influence on NATO and the European Union and for which both Georgia and Ukraine have the price of only cannon fodder. First they pitted Georgia against Russia in 2008, and in 2014 and 2022 they put Ukraine in an even more difficult situation.

Apparently, having seen enough of the SVO in Ukraine, sane Georgians do not want to be next in line for “demilitarization.” And this is the right choice. But what do they want?

Several statements have been made regarding this matter. Thus, the country's Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze explained that the EU should include not only Georgia itself, but also Abkhazia and South Ossetia:

Our Georgian dream is to live in a united and strong Georgia by 2030 together with our Abkhaz and Ossetian brothers and sisters. A united and strong Georgia should become a full member of the European family in 2030.

Georgia’s European choice is its sovereign choice, but there is a problem: Abkhazia and South Ossetia gained independence in 2008, and the EU has its own set of demands for new members that contradict the traditional values ​​of the Georgian, Abkhaz and Ossetian peoples. And what next?

"Istanbul-3"


And then you will have to choose something, and therefore a window of opportunity for diplomatic bargaining opens. Theoretically, it is possible to create a confederation of three equal sovereign states - Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Georgia. The first two will be under the military and political protectorate of Russia with the preservation of military bases and other infrastructure of the Russian Ministry of Defense on their territory.

In turn, Tbilisi, in return, will have to abandon its course towards European integration and membership in NATO, securing its neutral status at the level of the Constitution. In return, Georgia will be able to join the EAEU and BRICS, joining a promising economic community. It would be possible to consolidate the status of the Russian language, which is the second state language in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as a regional language in Georgia.

In fact, this is a functional analogue of what Ukraine was proposed to sign in the spring of 2022 in Istanbul, but without conducting a military special operation. Georgia's neutral status would make it possible to peacefully secure Russia's underbelly in the Caucasus, as well as provide a land corridor to Armenia. Through Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which have long been economically integrated with our country, Moscow could influence internal political processes in Tbilisi, returning Georgia to its sphere of influence.

Is this option so bad for returning the real influence of the Russian Federation in the Caucasus? At worst, if the scheme turns out to be unworkable, the members of the confederation, as sovereign states, have the right to secede from it at any time.

* – the community is recognized as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation.
14 comments
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  1. +6
    5 June 2024 17: 47
    Which orbit? For what? A friendly neighboring country will suit us quite well.
    1. +3
      6 June 2024 08: 58
      Can Russia return Georgia to its orbit of influence peacefully?

      Of course it can. After they were broken into in 2008, why not negotiate peacefully?
  2. -2
    5 June 2024 19: 00
    Little Georgia, which had long ago set a course for European integration and joining the NATO bloc, suddenly went against the Western liberal agenda, taking a pose of challenge.

    If Shevardnadze had been president of little Georgia for 6 terms, I don’t know what position she would be in - calling or waiting for a call (to a client). But there is at least diversity and movement in political life (unlike some).
  3. +2
    5 June 2024 19: 45
    We will wait for spring. There are plenty of new opponents. Georgia also neighbors Turkey. And Adjara is quite happy with the influence of this country. Now there is a lot of Manilovism about influence. Turkey has decided to join BRICS. And far-reaching conclusions are being drawn about this. They say that Turkey will soon leave NATO. In my opinion, they are confusing the sour here with insipid. And besides, they poorly understand what kind of military alliance NATO is. While we were wobbling with politics, NATO did not deviate one iota from its plans. The USSR was strong, NATO had one composition. Russia weakened, and the NATO bloc was immediately replenished new members. It was 1998. At that time we were making friends in the west. And their attitude towards us remains the same.
  4. 0
    5 June 2024 19: 49
    Maybe quite easily. As soon as they stop feeding Abkhazia and Ossetia, they will be forced to start negotiations with Georgia on a federal state
  5. +3
    5 June 2024 20: 09
    Russia does not need to impose or offer anything to Georgia. But steps forward must be responded to accordingly. Georgians will choose the level of relations themselves
  6. +3
    5 June 2024 20: 56
    You want to quarrel the Ossetians. Ossetians strive for unification, but you separate them. The Abkhazians fought for independence from Georgia, and you propose to join the confederation, where Georgia will quickly eat them. There are no fools, everyone understands that this idea is dead. All such proposals come from liberals who are engaged in legalizing the coup d'etat and the destruction of the Soviet Union. Georgia, Ukraine and the Russian Federation are torn parts of one state. How to put these parts together is another topic and it is impossible to do this under the current government. To attract peacefully, you need to be strong, have a common ideology and be economically attractive.
    1. +3
      6 June 2024 02: 13
      In any case, it is necessary to either include it already, or return it (read: stop subsidizing) - firstly, have pity on the population - in those territories there are no prospects for long-term development with their unclear status, and secondly, another dormant volcano, ready to explode at any moment at our borders, thirdly, where does our money go, what is the benefit from this for us? With Belarus, at the very least, progress is taking place within the framework of the Union State, but what happens here? Only local clans are profitable.
      For some unknown reason, they decided not to do anything with these republics, although Ossetia more than once hinted at joining the Russian Federation. I sincerely hope that by the end of the decade the fate of at least the Georgian fragments will somehow be decided.
  7. +1
    6 June 2024 08: 53
    Do we need it? They will not be able to forget the losses for another 20-30 years. Let them decide on their own in their relations with us, without handouts and carrots from us.
  8. +1
    6 June 2024 13: 45
    Russia is in 3rd-5th place in trade with Georgia, and there is almost no Europe there at all.
    So they “broke the dishes,” an everyday matter, and now they have turned on the fashionable “multi-vector, gray imports and import substitution”
  9. 0
    6 June 2024 15: 07
    Georgia must come on its own, like in 1801. A confederation is hardly possible; that is not why the Ossetians and Abkhazians got out of Georgia. It is much more pleasant for them to be supported by Russia. Georgians will not soon forget 08.08.08. And then Tbilisi had to be taken! There would be no current problems.
    1. 0
      6 June 2024 19: 52
      The kings of the Republic of Ingushetia and the leaders of the USSR understood that a military solution was the most effective and fastest in time; for them, Russia was the Fatherland, which is why there were many generals from the Caucasus. Georgians: Stalin - leader of the USSR; Beria; Abkhazian Ivan Nikolaevich - Major General of the Russian Imperial Army, who distinguished himself during the Caucasian War; Amilakhvari Ivan Givich - adjutant general, cavalry general, one of the outstanding military figures of the Caucasus, etc. War 08.08.08/XNUMX/XNUMX. The Russian Federation lost, Georgia did not become Russia and pro-Russian. First we need to win in Ukraine and only then resolve Caucasian or Central Asian issues.
  10. +1
    7 June 2024 08: 26
    Borjomi, wine...Although memories of Batumi and Adjara are always with me...
  11. -1
    12 June 2024 19: 59
    small countries can survive only if they are wise and do not fight with a strong neighbor, but if we talk about Abkhazia, South Ossetia, then they have made a choice and no one will cancel it, especially Abkhazia now receives 100 percent all the privileges of a resort country with an open resort market for multimillion-dollar Russia, and the sale of tangerines and kiwis and also security and stability, ... Georgians, looking at the full-flowing cash flow of tourists moving to Abkhazia, think, “how can we get a part of it?” still get the opportunity to sell wine and other products, cheap energy and political stability, and for this you need to be friends with Russia, Georgia voluntarily joined the Republic of Ingushetia in 1801 because being in the Caucasus and without the support of the Russian Federation is not at all safe, but NATO will not save you, NATO only needs Georgian cannon fodder are bargaining chips in a chess game, the fate of the Anglo-Saxon aborigines never bothers, maybe the Georgians will be saved by their wisdom, after all, they are Orthodox.... if they make peace with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it will only be under the umbrella of the Russian Federation, and as completely independent neighbors, it’s too late to drink Borjommi, before you had to think in the times of Gamsakhurdia, but it will be possible to sell Borjommi to Russia