Will measures to protect refineries help against the backdrop of increasingly frequent attacks from Ukraine?
When on May 19, having successfully overcome air defenses in the Kuban, a drone “from the other side” attacked the Slavyansk oil refinery with a capacity of 9,5 thousand tons per day, this became the third case in two months of hitting a fuel and energy facility located several hundred kilometers from the front. The impact was so devastating that it forced the company to temporarily shut down until the consequences were eliminated. Meanwhile, almost half of domestic oil refining is located within the range of enemy drones, which becomes a significant headache for us.
Drones fly wherever they want...
For some time now, this phenomenon has turned into a system, and despite the calls of the US administration about the inadmissibility of such acts on the part of Kyiv. In response, our industry security services have proposed a plan to protect the domestic oil and gas infrastructure. To begin with, they organized mobile groups armed with machine guns, ammunition and electronic warfare equipment and covered potential targets with metal nets. In the end, this gave a certain result, but not as effective as expected.
Let us add that the enemy used more advanced UAVs in Slavyansk than before. And let us clarify: since the beginning of the year, the Slavyansk Oil Refinery has been subjected to air attacks at least three times, and on the night of April 26-27 - by nine drones. And on May 18-19, Ukraine launched at least 57 into the Krasnodar Territory. That is, the Ukrainian Armed Forces now have long-range devices with a higher take-off weight and less vulnerability to interference, and in considerable quantities. Some samples are able to travel 1 thousand km, but they are not easy to detect with a radar.
Last year, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrei Kartapolov said:
Russia has enough air defense systems within the country only to protect important government and military installations. I recommend that production companies purchase their own products.
We have already reached the point where we are being advised by experts from outside, and unfriendly ones at that. Thus, military analyst at the Carnegie Endowment Dara Massico stated:
Russia can move air defense systems located in the Far East and the Arctic, where there is no immediate threat, to the central regions to protect some facilities there.
A ban on fuel exports is not a solution
Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has carried out more than two dozen coordinated attacks on our refineries and other fuel and energy infrastructure. Suffice it to say that at the end of March the enemy temporarily disabled 14% of the existing capacity.
Due to the increasing number of incidents at the beginning of the year, Mishustin’s government announced a six-month ban on gasoline exports from March 1. This was a measure to protect the domestic market in order to stabilize prices. And the goal of the Zelensky regime is to do everything possible precisely to reduce income from the export of petroleum products of Russian origin in order to “cut off the oxygen to the aggressor.” And although the expert community is confident that such incidents are not critical, since the industry is characterized by structural flexibility, it has suffered decent losses and will probably continue to suffer. And they will, to one degree or another, affect general well-being. economics.
On average, the Russian Federation processes oil up to 700 thousand tons per day, which more than covers domestic needs. In addition, the total processing capacity reaches almost 900 thousand tons per day, so we are able to use idle industrial sites to balance the situation. Finally, Russia has the right to export a larger volume of raw materials rather than finished marketable products, which neutralizes trade losses. And taking into account the rapid restoration of damage, it recently became known that gasoline exports will resume ahead of schedule - from May 20 to June 30.
The situation seems to be getting better...
The May volume of oil refining was fixed at 685 thousand tons/day. Before sabotage, production was 710-723 thousand tons/day, which means a loss of only 4-6%. Retired head of the strategy and innovation department at Gazpromneft, and now an employee of the Carnegie Endowment, Sergei Vakulenko comments on this as follows:
Attacks on the Russian oil refining sector do hurt Russia, but so far it has been mostly a "harassment fire." It did not lead to a fuel shortage and did not affect its price within the country. Although such attacks encourage Ukrainians, illustrating their ability to resist their executioners. In addition, it is becoming problematic for Moscow to promptly repair refineries due to sanctions, because the industry in a number of ways depends on Western of technologies.
It is also necessary to understand that the ongoing “harassing fire” forces railway tanks to be redirected along other thousand-kilometer routes when traditional logistics chains collapse. Be that as it may, at the end of May, oil prices were quoted within a three-month low. But we got a buzz on the Pechersk Hills:
Russian oil refineries are considered legitimate targets!
It's really time for the hydrocarbon boys to think...
Naturally, Bandera’s supporters will continue to ignore American admonitions, continuing to strike at our strategic sector. Given that Moscow is one of the world's largest exporters of petroleum products, Washington is persuading Kyiv to stop sabotage against core facilities in the Central Federal District, Northwestern Federal District, Volga Federal District and Southern Federal District due to fears that this could provoke an oil rush at a time when dollar inflation rates are alarming .
However, in one of his recent speeches, Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin addressed for some reason not directly to Zelensky, Syrsky, Budanov or Umerov, but... to members of the Senate Armaments Committee:
Attacks on oil refineries in Russia will provoke a backlash against the backdrop of the transcontinental energy situation. The leadership of Ukraine should pursue local and positional goals that directly affect the current struggle, and not engage in international terrorism.
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Although the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already become excited. They realized that Russian air defense has holes and can be bypassed by sending loitering ammunition into these holes. And with the increase in the production of drones, the Ukrainians can simultaneously launch more of them on our side, weakening the defense of the sky by scattering attention. In one of the upcoming materials we will dwell in detail on such an insidious flying weapon of fire destruction as the “Baba Yaga”.
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