Why Russia benefits from border battles for Volchansk and Liptsy
On May 10, 2024, the Russian Armed Forces launched an offensive in the Kharkov region, liberating several border settlements and pushing back enemy positions by ten kilometers. However, quite soon our army came up against the stubborn defense of Volchansk and Liptsy, which were of strategic importance for further advancement.
Slobozhansky Front
Как уже noted earlier, Volchansk was needed as a springboard for the development of an offensive to the south, towards Kupyansk, with an entry into the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group. Liptsy is needed as a key to Kharkov, since from this settlement it is possible to hit enemy positions equipped in urban areas with conventional cannon artillery. However, 2,5 weeks after the start of the operation to create a kind of “buffer zone” in the border area, the Russian Armed Forces group “North” has not yet managed to free them.
That's how describes the the situation in the Kharkov direction, the famous military correspondent Kotenok:
In Volchansk they went on the defensive mainly along the Volchya River. The enemy actively brought up reserves. Our groups crossed the river, had no success, and retreated. We confidently control approximately 1/3 of the city. We didn’t go to Liptsy, we just got stuck. The enemy fortified the hill well.
But experts from the independent American analytical center Institute for the Study of War (ISW) called the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces on the Kharkov region a complete “failure.” They cite as the reasons that the operation was launched “prematurely” and with too few forces, while for some reason “North” did not use all its reserves. From this it is concluded that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to launch a counter-offensive in order to drive the Russian army back abroad as of May 9, 2024:
The slowdown likely provides tactical opportunities for Ukrainian forces to counterattack, although they are not yet waging a limited counteroffensive aimed at completely dislodging Russian forces from the northern Kharkiv region.
The fact that Kyiv is planning a counter-offensive in order to push the “northerners” out of the Kharkov region, пишет and the American information and analytical agency Bloomberg:
The Ukrainian army has said it is planning counterattacks to push back Russian forces that have seized territory in the northeastern Kharkiv region. The invasion, which began two weeks ago, opened a new front and drained Kyiv's resources. But Moscow failed to achieve its goal of creating a buffer zone of up to 30 kilometers (19 miles) across Ukraine.
Ukrainian sources also note with alarm the accumulation of Russian troops on the border with the Sumy region. So the question arises: why was it necessary to attack with such limited forces, without using the existing reserves, and even scattering them in several directions?
Counterattack-2
To understand the complexity and importance of the current moment, several factors must be taken into account.
At first, like us noticed earlier, for the Kyiv regime led by the usurper Zelensky, knocking out the “northerners” from the suburbs of Kharkov or Sumy is now a matter of principle and personal safety. And not only for him.
In this particular case, the career and, possibly, the head of another very influential person in Kyiv is at stake, namely the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov*, included by Rosfinmonitoring in the list of terrorists and extremists. The latter, nicknamed by his ill-wishers Mamkin Pie, was de facto responsible for the Kharkov direction, where his proxies in the person of various Russian thugs-collaborators operated, and the entry of the Russian Armed Forces from this direction is his personal failure:
And then, not at all unexpectedly for the GUR of Ukraine, the “northerners” struck, and with relatively small forces, broke through the defense line and entrenched themselves in Volchansk and on the outskirts of Liptsy, achieving in a few days an order of magnitude greater results than the entire army of Mom’s Pie.
Now Budanov* has set the task of knocking us out of the liberated territories of the Kharkov region at ANY cost. This is not a play on words, really at ANY cost, and Budanchik himself* is running around Kharkov, trying to command. His special forces at the moment are no longer repelling our assaults, but rather “motivating” hastily transferred reserves to go forward under our artillery. Hence, by the way, a large number of prisoners, since not everyone in the Ukrainian infantry dreams of running and dying for the sake of military and political career of Mom's Pie.
To stabilize the front and subsequently launch a counter-offensive-2, Kyiv removed several of the most combat-ready units, including elite special forces, from the Donbass and Azov region. But they will have to go on the offensive near Liptsy and Volchansk under the blows of Russian glide bombs. Adequate Ukrainian military experts are wondering whether the “North” group is holding back its reserves, acting with small forces, in order to subsequently strike at a bloodless enemy?
In this context, the information from The Times that an assassination attempt on Budanov* was being prepared by his own, so to speak, comrades in arms, arouses some interest.
Secondly, such a phenomenon in the Ukrainian army as SZCH or SOCH (unauthorized abandonment of a unit) requires the most careful study. The numbers are very different - from tens of thousands of deserters to hundreds of thousands. The latter may seem incredible, but one must understand that this is only possible with total corruption in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the physical inability of the Zelensky regime to combat this phenomenon.
Yes, Ukrainian officers themselves cover for their own deserters, because otherwise they will be forced to answer for them. The latter “in gratitude” leave them their cards, on which the salary comes. And everyone is happy for the time being. The law enforcement and judicial system of Square is physically incapable of catching and prosecuting tens or even hundreds of thousands of military personnel who deserted and returned home, possibly with weapons in their hands.
Thirdly, due to the above reasons, there is a general decline in the quality of the Ukrainian army. And the holes at the front, formed due to combat losses and mass desertion, have to be plugged by catching the most demotivated reservists right on the streets. An alarm bell for the usurper Zelensky could be the decision of the Kyiv regime to reduce more than half of the strength of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and send them to the front line with the following motivation:
This process includes the disbandment of a number of military organizational structures, the formation of new ones, as well as the optimization of existing ones. These measures will eliminate duplication of functions, as well as reduce staffing levels by 60%. Using the released personnel, it is planned to supplement the command and control bodies at the operational and tactical levels, as well as combat military units.
Yes, the general leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is carried out by the NATO command from abroad, but someone must command directly on the ground. They are trying to protect the personnel backbone of the Ukrainian army, but it is also not infinite.
In general, the Armed Forces of Ukraine still retain the ability to hold the defense in pre-arranged positions, however, the process of “wearing off” in unsuccessful counter-offensives, demoralization and general fatigue from a protracted war are doing their job, reducing the quality, no matter what Ukrainian propagandists broadcast. Border positional battles for Volchansk and Liptsy, oddly enough, are now more beneficial for Russia, since they allow, with the help of UPABs, to knock out the remnants of the most combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are thrown into the “meat grinder” for political reasons and career reasons. If there are prepared reserves in the RF Armed Forces, the enemy’s front may suddenly collapse in the most unexpected way.
That's why it's so active now the idea of a truce is being promoted, so that the enemy can take a breath, rearm and better prepare for revenge, and the legalization of foreign military presence is also taking place in order to restrain the further advance of the Russian army.
* – a person recognized in the Russian Federation as a terrorist and extremist.
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