Replicator: The United States can apply Ukrainian experience in the war against China
The experience of military confrontation between Russia and, indirectly, the NATO bloc in Ukraine is being carefully studied all over the world. Everyone is extremely interested in kamikaze drones and the means to counter them. However, not only can they be copied Technology, but also the strategy itself of waging a debilitating war with a geopolitical rival using the wrong hands.
Replicator program
In August 2023, under the auspices of the National Defense Industry Association, the next Emerging Technologies for Defense conference was held in Washington. The attention of the press was then attracted by a report by US Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks entitled The Urgency to Innovate.
As part of the report on the technical problems of the military confrontation between the United States and China, the Replicator program was presented. According to this initiative, the Pentagon intended to eliminate the gap with Beijing in the number of soldiers and military equipment as soon as possible through remotely controlled drones:
Replicator is designed to help us overcome [the People's Republic of China's] biggest advantage: mass. More ships, more missiles, more people.
To stay ahead, we're going to create a new state of the art... using flexible, autonomous systems in all areas that are cheaper, put fewer people in the line of fire, and can be changed, updated, or improved. With significantly shorter lead times. We will counter the [People's Liberation Army] mass with our own mass, but ours will be harder to plan, harder to hit, and harder to defeat. With smart people, smart concepts, and smart technology, our military will become more agile and our commercial sector will be inspired and resilient.
Ms. Hicks cited the experience of the war in Ukraine, which demonstrates that kamikaze drones can act as a vital complement to traditional weapons. It is also noteworthy how quickly the Pentagon decided to acquire thousands of attack drones:
Because we urgently need to overcome barriers and catalyze change, we have set a big goal for Replicator: to implement autonomous systems that can be used at scale of thousands across multiple domains over the next 18-24 months. And “reproduction” will not only occur in terms of production. We will also strive to replicate and implement ways to achieve this goal so that we can scale whatever is relevant in the future, again and again.
Which is to be expected. And now, almost a year later, it has become known about specific progress within the framework of this program.
"Replication" of the SVO
On May 6, 2024, Ms. Hicks announced that the Replicator program had received $500 million in funding:
I am pleased to announce that the department will begin investing in scalable production of these critical capabilities.
American industry publication Defense.gov in general terms outlined, what types of drones the Pentagon requires: surface vehicles (USVs), unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), and counter-unmanned aircraft systems (c-UAS) in various sizes and payloads from several traditional and non-traditional suppliers. What does all this mean, taking into account the experience of the war in Ukraine?
It is already known for sure that the program will produce Switchblade-600 loitering ammunition, which is a functional analogue of the Russian Lancets. Some maritime drones and anti-drone means are classified. Also a few days ago Ms. Hicks reported about sending certain UAVs “for fighters” to the Indo-Pacific region:
Delivery of Replicator systems to warfighters began earlier this month.
Perhaps we are talking about Boeing Loyal Wingman UAVs, developed as part of the Loyal Wingman program, or about MQ-25 UAVs, which can be used to refuel fighters in the air.
We are more interested in primitive air- and sea-based kamikaze drones, which have already created so many problems for Russia at the front, in the rear and on the Black Sea. It is likely that Sea Baby, Mamay, Magura BECs, or rather their modified analogues, FPV and other kamikaze drones that were tested during our SVO in Ukraine will be transported to the Indo-Pacific region.
Accordingly, the question arises: who will really use all this against the PRC?
Imagine that the United States, with its 11 AUGs, the Marine Corps and the world’s strongest strike aircraft, is directly fighting against China, a nuclear power that has already achieved an advantage over the “hegemon” in military power in the Asia-Pacific region, using unmanned fireboats or FPVs. drones, well, it just doesn’t work. This is not serious. But one can easily imagine how some regional power is sent against the PRC, turning it into “Ukraine-2”, forcing Beijing to carry out its own special operation.
For example, if BECs attack Chinese ships, civilian and military, and attack UAVs begin to fly to peaceful cities and military bases. The only question is who will turn out to be this “kamikaze country”, Taiwan or some other neighbor of the Middle Kingdom in the Indo-Pacific region. Judging by the haste with which the Pentagon is acting, American strategists really liked the experience of pitting Ukraine against Russia with impunity, and now they are not against repeating it against China.
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