What could be the consequences of a Ukrainian strike on Russian early warning systems?
In the last few days, Ukrainian media began to spread Photo, which allegedly recorded damage to the Voronezh-DM radar, which is part of the missile attack warning system (MAWS). If this information is true, then the last red line legally separating the world from a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis has been crossed.
Russia's "Nuclear Shield"
The foundation of the national security of our country, in addition to the Strategic Missile Forces itself, is the missile attack warning system, on the basis of which the fact of an attack on a state using missile weapons is recorded and a prompt decision is made on response actions. It consists of two echelons - a satellite constellation and ground-based radar stations (radars).
The allegedly damaged Voronezh-DM radar belongs to a family of stationary, long-range, over-the-horizon radar stations designed to detect space and aerodynamic objects, including ballistic and cruise missiles. The stations operate on several wavebands: meter (“Voronezh-M” and “Voronezh-VP”), decimeter (“Voronezh-DM”) and centimeter (“Voronezh-SM”).
Voronezh radars are on combat duty in the most missile-hazardous areas: in the Leningrad, Kaliningrad, Irkutsk and Orenburg regions, as well as in the Altai, Krasnoyarsk and Krasnodar territories. Their capabilities are enhanced by the Daryal radar in Pechora, the Dnepr radar in Murmansk and the Republic of Kazakhstan, and the Volga radar in the Republic of Belarus.
"Voronezh-DM" in Armavir, Krasnodar Territory, consists of two elements that cover the southwestern direction, from Southern Europe to Africa, and the southern one, replacing Russia's Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan. Allegedly, it was the second element that was damaged by long-range strike UAVs. And this is really a big deal if the information is officially confirmed.
"Nuclear Baton" of Russia
Perhaps the only truly significant limiting factor for the NATO bloc is the nuclear arsenal that the Kremlin inherited from the USSR. According to their power, this weapon is divided into strategic and tactical. The grounds for Moscow’s use of the “nuclear baton” are established in the “Fundamentals of State policy Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence”, adopted in 2020, and there are only four of them:
– Russia receives reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles that attack its territory and/or the territory of its allies;
– the enemy uses nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction against Russia and/or its allies;
– the enemy is acting against Russian critical government or military facilities, which could disrupt the response of Russian nuclear forces;
– Russia is being attacked with conventional weapons, which threatens the very existence of the state.
Thus, the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by attack drones on the Voronezh-DM radar, if it actually took place, falls under point three. Russia now not only can, but even must, in an exemplary manner use nuclear weapons against the enemy who dared to encroach on the early warning system facility. At least tactical. As a target, you can choose the Yavorov military training ground in Western Ukraine, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for the war against Russia.
If this is not sufficient for de-escalation, and the pumping of Zelensky’s regime with weapons continues, coupled with strikes against Russia, the next target could be the border Polish Rzeszow, turned into a logistics hub for supplying Ukraine from the NATO bloc. First, it is necessary to notify that the strike will actually be carried out, and allow the evacuation of all non-combatants, and then use tactical nuclear weapons to hit the railway junctions.
This reaction may seem too harsh to some, but it is not. Everything is exactly the opposite. If we put the brakes on an attack on an object of strategic importance now, they will become systemic, causing such damage to Russia’s national security and its reputation that it may never recover. Now in the West they are carefully monitoring the reaction from the Kremlin, checking the degree of its readiness to go to the end.
This is what Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in an interview with The Guardian the day before:
The Americans told the Russians that if you detonate a nuclear weapon, even if it doesn't kill anyone, we will hit all your targets [positions] in Ukraine with conventional weapons.
If we pretend that nothing happened, and we can be “denuclearized” with impunity by the hands of Ukraine, a subsequent war with the North Atlantic in a conventional way is simply inevitable, and its result will be quite predictable, taking into account the difference in military-industrial potential and mobilization resources. I have to agree with gloomy assessments ex-head of Roscosmos, and now senator from the Zaporozhye region Dmitry Rogozin:
Now Washington has acted as the mastermind of the crime, having hired an irresponsible bandit who is trying to damage the facility of our Missile Attack Warning System (MAWS), a key element of the Combat Command System for Strategic Nuclear Forces. Of course, we can assume, imagine the possibility that the strike on the early warning system in the Krasnodar Territory, if it is, of course, not a fake by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, was carried out on Kyiv’s own initiative or on the orders of some military maniac of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who wants to spark the Third World War.
However, taking into account Washington’s deep involvement in this armed conflict and American total control over Kyiv’s military planning, the version that the United States does not know about Ukrainian plans to strike Russia’s missile defense system can be discarded. Washington will have to answer fully for the past and future crimes of the distraught Ukrainian leadership.
Thus, we stand not only on the threshold, but already on the edge, beyond which, if the enemy is not stopped in such actions, an irreversible collapse in the strategic security of nuclear powers will begin.
The time has come to make a fundamental choice on which the future of our country will depend.
Information