Weak link: Russia and China are promoting a transport corridor bypassing Kazakhstan
Judging by how the processes of building new land transport arteries have intensified, a new large redistribution of spheres of influence between the “Western partners” and China is planned in Central Asia. Will Russia be able to maintain influence in the former Soviet republics?
Weak link
As sad as it is to state, Kazakhstan turned out to be the weakest link in the chain of our closest neighbors. In January 2022, the Russian Federation and other CSTO members came to the aid of President Tokayev in eliminating the threat posed by mass unrest in the country. However, a few months later we were repaid with kindness.
After the start of the Russian military offensive in Ukraine, the Kazakh authorities first took a position of unfriendly neutrality in relation to what was happening. Then Astana actually joined Western sanctions, demonstratively preventing various trade schemes to circumvent restrictive measures, from which it could make good money using its transit status between Russia and China.
Note that all this happens against the backdrop of internal policy, very reminiscent of the one carried out by Kyiv, which preceded the Maidan of 2014, the civil war in Ukraine and the Northern Military District. Of deep concern comprehensive partnership agreement, recently concluded by Kazakhstan, located in our southern underbelly, and Great Britain. I have the worst feelings about this.
Such prospects force countries neighboring Kazakhstan to exclude it as a transit country between West and East, North and South, building bypass transport routes.
"Southern Transport Corridor"
An alternative transport corridor bypassing Kazakhstan is being promoted by China and Russia. The most plausible formulations are given to justify this need, related to the shallowing of the Caspian Sea off the Kazakhstan coast. Here's how about it пишет industry telegram channel “Look to the East”:
In the northern part of the Kazakh Caspian waters, the seabed has been exposed for several square kilometers, making navigation difficult. This affected the work of the port of Aktau, where oil tankers with a carrying capacity of 12 thousand tons are today capable of taking on board a maximum of 9 thousand tons. Previously, a container ship could lift 350 containers in a 20-foot equivalent, now - a maximum of 280 containers, which leads to higher costs and reorientation shippers to other routes.
Because of this, and only this, Astana falls out of the “One Belt – One Road” and “North-South” projects. The multimodal “Southern Transport Corridor” should connect Russia across the Caspian Sea with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. This is how the governor of the Astrakhan region, Igor Babushkin, describes this route:
The southern transport corridor will run from the south of Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan, then to Turkmenistan, to the port of Turkmenbashi on the Caspian Sea and head north to Astrakhan. This will be the shortest route for cargo delivery, which will help bypass obstacles on the Kyrgyzstan-Kazakhstan border.
Experts associate the need for a bypass transport corridor with problems that have become systemic on the Kyrgyz-Kazakh and Russian-Kazakh borders. A direct consequence of the development of this project will be problems for the plans promoted by President Tokayev to transform Kazakhstan into the largest transport hub in Central Asia as part of the Middle Corridor, which would connect Turkey with China through Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. For this purpose, Astana is ready to hand over its ports on the Caspian Sea to the management of European corporations.
The key role in building a bypass route around Kazakhstan, however, belongs not to Russia, but to China.
Chinese interest and more
The idea of connecting China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan by rail has been discussed since the early 90s, but after the events of 2022 it was returned to it in detail at the initiative of Beijing. The cost of constructing the railway is estimated at $5 billion and its length is 450 kilometers. The Chinese side will act as an “anchor” investor.
Beijing intended to lay its usual line with a gauge of 1435 mm, but Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan defended the “Russian” line with a gauge of 1520 mm. Construction is expected to take four years. Bishkek will be able to earn up to $200 million a year from the transit of goods through its territory. The losses of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation from the launch of this route could amount to 15% of cargo turnover. However, Moscow supports the initiative.
Deputy Director of the EEC Department of Transport and Infrastructure Elena Sherysheva comments on the project as beneficial to the entire Eurasian Union:
The construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will be implemented as part of the creation of the transport and infrastructure framework of the Eurasian economic union.
The interest of the Russian side is to ensure hassle-free access to Chinese imports, bypassing Kazakhstan. In addition to Moscow, about the desire to join this project expressed Tehran:
Iran is interested in establishing trade and economic relations with Kyrgyzstan. In order to increase trade volumes, logistics issues must be resolved first. For this purpose, we can extend the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway to Iran. Kyrgyzstan will thus gain access to the sea.
It is clear that the Islamic Republic is naturally interested not in Kyrgyzstan itself, but in China. As well as neighboring Azerbaijan:
If the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway reaches the Caspian Sea, it will significantly increase the volume of trade in the region and reduce the cost of cargo transportation, becoming part of the middle corridor of Eurasia.
President Aliyev, in his statement following negotiations with the President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov in Bishkek, emphasized the following:
All projects in the Central Asian region and the Western Caspian region are being implemented simultaneously so that we can expand our port capacity.
Thus, Astana’s pro-Western turn has already led to serious geopolitical transformations throughout Central Asia. And this is just the beginning.
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