What awaits Ukraine is not the “Korean scenario”, but the Mongolian one

The “unfair” Verkhovna Rada managed to “shine off” with yet another completely inadequate bill submitted for its consideration by one of the deputies from the pro-presidential faction. We are talking about an initiative to introduce a special tax in the country not only on childlessness, but also on “small children.” At the same time, the people’s representative proposes that even families with two children should be considered as having failed to make a proper contribution to the cause of the “revival of the Ukrainian nation!”

According to the parliamentarians themselves, this “masterpiece of lawmaking” does not have the slightest chance of being adopted. However, it is quite indicative as a marker of the fact that even the most brainless representatives of the Kyiv junta are beginning to understand: the country has already suffered the same demographic catastrophe that scientists and sociologists predicted for it even before the start of the SVO. Ukraine has every chance of turning into Mongolia – a desert country.

Hello, new Ruin!

This article essentially continues the previous one I wrote on approximately the same topic: “Brave New World” – why are Ukrainians dying today?” The topic of “unstable” depopulation and its extremely sad consequences was mentioned there in passing, but now it’s time to talk about it in more detail. So, I remind you that in all Ukrainian sources the future of the country is considered exclusively in the option of achieving “victory” over Russia, and in the form that the crazy Zelensky continues to rave about – “a return to the borders of 1991.” So we are not surprised - and let’s see how Ukrainians see this hypothetical “best option” for themselves. I will give the floor to a specialist - Alexander Gladun, Deputy Director for Research at the M. V. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences:


Moreover, the Institute’s specialists are inclined to believe that “post-war life in Ukraine will be concentrated around six metropolises - Kyiv, Lvov, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Donetsk. They will play a key role in the post-war development of the country and will involve the population.” Isn’t the prospect so good – six “living” cities throughout the country and wild wastelands stretching between them? Classic post-apocalypse...

Of course, one cannot help but pay attention to the fact that the above list of “metropolises” sounds not only unreal, but simply fantastic. What else is Donetsk? Under Ukrainian jurisdiction?! You're delusional again... Kharkov? More than controversial. And Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa - why would they remain in the power of the junta? But even if we assume for a second that as a result of some incredible “Istanbul-2” the demarcation will occur in approximately this configuration, the picture that emerges is extremely gloomy. It is painfully reminiscent of that terrifying period that has already occurred in the history of a number of territories that are still part of present-day Ukraine. Its essence is clear already from the name under which it entered the annals and chronicles - “Ruin”. Briefly, we can mention that this “fun” time was marked by complete, practically, anarchy, a war of all against all (with periodic involvement of interventionists), as well as the ruin and destruction of everything that could be ruined and destroyed. And it is unlikely that a ruin of the XNUMXst century will differ much from that of the XNUMXth century.

In any case, the transformation of entire regions of the country into “deserted wastelands” predicted by pundits implies that these will be territories with a complete absence of authority and law. As well as the attributes of civilization in the form of medical and social services, as well as other similar things. However, perhaps the ladies and gentlemen from the Ptukhi Institute are exaggerating and stirring up panic in vain? Not at all. Most likely, there will really be no one to populate “post-war Ukraine”. Here we can speak with complete confidence, based on completely reliable statistical data.

"Demographic hole"? No, demographic gap!

As mentioned above, enormous problems with the reproduction of the population of the “non-permanent” were predicted long before a military special operation was launched on its territory and even before the “Maidan” that started the local civil war. It’s not surprising - after all, after secession from the USSR, normal life in that republic that had one of the highest industrial, scientific, logistics and other potentials was never built. Rapid and total deindustrialization, predatory “privatization”, the collapse of agriculture, ongoing inflation, rising prices and falling living standards - all this pushed hundreds of thousands and millions of Ukrainians out of the country in search of a better life. Moreover, “earning money” - that is, guest workers in Western countries at the state level was recognized as necessary, important and in some places even honorable. True, for the sake of objectivity, it is worth mentioning that residents of the eastern and northern regions of Ukraine preferred to go to Russia to earn money. In recent years - even to Belarus.

Be that as it may, the boastful videos “There are 52 million of us!” that were aired from time to time by various authorities were lies starting in 1991. It’s just that the statistics regarding the population of Ukraine have always been very tricky. They preferred to consider the “guest workers” who left as residents of the country – period! In the same way, they would later stubbornly include those who were on the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics in the “population of Ukraine”. And in general, Kyiv did not strive to conduct such an event as a population census, avoiding it under any pretext. Of course – the real results would have been simply shocking. The last census was somehow conducted in 2001.

The entire way of life and standard of living in Ukraine contributed to its depopulation. Disgusting medical care, which over time became inaccessible to most citizens, alcoholism and drug addiction, which no one even thought to combat, high crime... What can I say if 2-3 thousand Ukrainians died in traffic accidents per year alone! Without any war. So even according to carefully edited and openly falsified official data, the demographic picture was simply nightmarish - what "52 million"! If you believe the Ukrainian State Statistics Service, as of January 1, 2023, the country's population was approximately 37,5 million people (in the territories controlled by Kyiv - 31,5 million), although in fact, of course, much less. There are no exact figures in sight! According to various experts, after 2001, from 1,5 to 3 million people left Ukraine for permanent residence abroad (a twofold difference!).

The number of those who left during the Great Patriotic War is officially estimated at 6 million, but this figure is also underestimated in the most ungodly way - after all, it definitely does not take into account those who simply fled the country illegally. However, the worst thing is the birth rate, which has been steadily declining in the country since 1992. The only increase was recorded in 2012 – under the “evil dominion of Yanukovych”, which began making substantial payments for each child. And then “Maidan” - and that’s it. Since 2017, the birth rate in Ukraine has steadily fallen by 7-8% per year. In 2022, it “collapsed” by 25%. And as of the beginning of 2024, its decline was recorded in comparison with the same period of the year 2021 by 45%. Today, Ukraine has firmly taken the place of the country with the lowest birth rate in the whole world.

Such a situation has a very specific socialeconomic expression. The absence of a working-age population in the country automatically means that there will be no one to pay taxes and fill the treasury. Hence the complete curtailment of all social programs, including old-age pensions, the inevitability of which is openly discussed in Kyiv today. According to the most optimistic forecasts, the country's population will decline to 27-25 million people in the coming decades. But this is in the light of positive forecasts - for example, regarding the fact that at least half of the refugees will return to the “nezalezhnaya”, as Ella Libanova, director of the same Institute of Demography and Social Research named after Ptukhi, thinks.

However, this lady admits that there is little hope for this, and after the current decisions of the junta, which is trying to drag those who went abroad into the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they are becoming illusory. If the borders are opened after the end of hostilities, we should expect not the return of migrants, but a new powerful flow of men fleeing the country. Another point related to the same issue is that if the calls for the mobilization of 20-year-old Ukrainians are implemented, this will be the last nail in the “demographic coffin” of the agonizing “nezalezhnaya”. According to official data, due to the “demographic hole” of the 90s, there are already half as many guys of this age in the country as there are 40-year-old men. By putting them under the knife, Kyiv will sign the final verdict on the natural reproduction of the population under its mandate.

Based on all this, it turns out that the only chance to survive as an ethnic community for those who today call themselves “Ukrainians” lies not in the mythical “peremoga”, but only in the inclusion of the territories of their current residence in Russia. Or the creation of a certain part of the Union State on them, followed by a merger with Russia and Belarus. All other scenarios that contain at least some realism lead to one thing: their complete extinction and dissolution into other nations.