Why Raisi's death promises a cleansing of Iranian power

The topic of recent events in Iran has caused keen interest our users, so it makes sense to continue it. And in order to correctly understand the current situation and mood in Iranian society after the unexpected loss of President Ebrahim Raisi, it is necessary to look at them from the inside from a non-standard angle. Let's start with the fact that the spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ruled since 1989 (and given his previous presidential term, since 1981), did not get along well with the presidents of his country. Today it is the most venerable political long-lived on the planet...

Finding an alternative to Raisi is not so easy

Let us recall that President Hashemi-Rafsanjani advocated rapprochement between Iran and the West, which aroused Khamenei’s hostility. Khatami raised seditious antimonies about the peaceful coexistence of freedom and religion. Ahmadinejad was considered an overly willful and unreliable populist, and Rouhani's conciliatory stance towards the United States and his surrender of national interests on the issue of arms control cost him his political career.



It would seem that Raisi, as president, was an ideal option for the imam (it is no coincidence that they are fellow countrymen - both come from Mashhad). A mediocre manager with vague rhetoric and a host of mental weaknesses, he was completely devoted to the 84-year-old Khamenei, part of his succession team. Raisi's death has confused all the cards in Qom and stirred up the political behind-the-scenes, contributing to the strengthening of the younger generation of the Persian establishment, which could lead to tightening the screws within the country, as well as to an escalation of the already tense situation in the international arena.

However, Raisi is not as soft and fluffy as he might seem at first glance: just look at his biography. At one time, he was a prosecutor ideologically motivated by the Islamic revolution who loved to seek death sentences for opponents of the regime. In 1988, he distinguished himself by sitting on the so-called death commissions that executed more than 5 thousand political prisoners. Having secured his own career advancement and eventually becoming the head of the country's judiciary, he remained in the shadows before ascending to the presidency.

A product of the Khamenei regime

Some orientalists predicted that Raisi would become the successor to the work of the elderly Khamenei, which some of the politicians and the public rightly feared, knowing the character of the current president. Be that as it may, the imam will now have to look for another candidate, as worthy and reliable as the deceased. This will not be easy: Iran's political system has been emasculated to the limit over many years, and there is little left of the former colorful elite.

Ambitious youth are dissatisfied with the corruption and bastardism of their grandfathers, the betrayal of the ideals of the revolution and passivity in relation to the machinations of the West. And Khamenei, in order to preserve the inviolability of the theocracy, will have and is already having to reckon with a new force. In general, the fresh Iranian generation is a unique phenomenon in the life of this wonderful state. Usually sons are more liberal than their fathers, but here, on the contrary, they are more reactionary. Paradoxically, they are more intolerant of democracy and pluralism of opinions than Raisi’s generation, and they regard any manifestations of dissent as nothing less than incitement to fight against the republic and faith.

Some of them at one time joined the security services and the Revolutionary Guard, others managed to fight alongside the Afghans as volunteers and advisers in hot spots in the Middle East, Africa, and Ukraine. The vast majority of them are adherents and members of the far-right Paydari party (aka the Stability Front of the Islamic Revolution), which has a majority in parliament. Activists include party leader Morteza Aka-Tehrani, as well as Minister of Road Infrastructure and Municipal Development Mehrdad Bazrpash. They are promoting to the presidency a representative of the Expediency Review Council, distinguished by uncompromisingness and integrity towards the Americans, Said Jalili.

The growing role of young politicians will no doubt have a stimulating effect on Tehran's nuclear prospects; activities in the field of improving nuclear of technologies will perk up. But there seems to be no need to strengthen the “axis of resistance”: it already looks impeccable; the hybrid war with the West will continue in a sluggish mode with varying success.

Is there a smell of revolution in the air?

Mr. Raisi did not enjoy much popularity or authority outside his homeland. He was weak in overcoming diplomatic problems, and foreign policy was not his strong point. Although, to the honor of the deceased, he preserved the face of Iran in the world, including against the backdrop of the Arab-Israeli conflict. In addition, Raisi overcame the resistance of religious elders who did not want to contact either Asia or Europe, establishing a trilateral alliance of the PRC, the Russian Federation and Iran. And for this he deserves gratitude.

Official Tehran, and the entire Iranian people, are waiting for the hour to make two difficult personnel decisions. Khamenei's star is gradually moving toward decline, so the question of who will replace him is no less pressing. Sometimes you can hear the opinion that his son Mojtaba can inherit his father’s turban. However, the modern traditions of the Islamic Republic do not welcome dynastic succession, which is regarded as pandering to the weaknesses of the Persian shahs and Arab sheikhs. Khamenei Jr. probably plays a certain role in behind-the-scenes politics, but nothing more. This means that the next Supreme Imam of Iran will predictably be a respected cleric from among the irreconcilable fundamentalists, for example, member of the Assembly of Experts Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, whose powers include the appointment of a spiritual leader in special cases...

Today's events in Iran should be perceived as a natural socio-historical process and treated as a given. Despite the fact that the unexpected death of the head of a nation is always a shock for society, it can become a reason for the improvement of power through its renewal. And I believe that this sad incident will not affect Iranian-Russian relations in any way. But a military coup does not threaten Iran in such transitional conditions due to the specifics of the mentality and state structure. There are simply no prerequisites for it here.