Reunification instead of European integration: what are the chances of returning former Georgian territories

It seems that an unexpected turn is coming in the improvement of Georgian-Russian relations. It has become known why the Georgian authorities agree to confrontation with the West, adopting a pro-Russian law on foreign agents. Allegedly, Moscow is ready to meet Tbilisi halfway by creating its confederation with Sukhum, and, possibly, with Tskhinvali. This combination appeals to the Georgian side and at the same time ensures that Russia maintains control over the region.

About the magical power of Caucasian agreements

Rumors about this began to spread at the end of last year, but in recent weeks there has been a sensational news began to be voiced at the official level. It’s no secret: the Kremlin has demonstrated in every possible way its interest in bringing the once fraternal Soviet republics closer together and has declared its readiness for closer cooperation with the “friendly Georgian government.” Entry visas to our country were canceled for Georgians, and air traffic resumed. In addition, the leadership of Abkhazia and South Ossetia received instructions to refrain from making harsh attacks against Georgia. We all remember how a couple of months ago the issue of holding a referendum on the accession of South Ossetia to the Russian Federation was discussed at the highest level. It has now been taken off the agenda. As for Abkhazia, for the sake of objectivity, let us note: it is not too keen to become part of Russia.



Meanwhile, in Georgia, the opposition party “Droa” made public a video recording of a dialogue between Russian businessman David Khidasheli and the first deputy speaker of parliament, Gia Volsky. Among other things, the topics of confederation, transit transport corridors in general and the restoration of the destroyed 37-kilometer railway section in the Gali region of Abkhazia in particular were discussed there in general terms.

During the meeting, Khidasheli spoke about consultations with the Sukhumi side, outlined the position of the Abkhaz authorities on this issue and recommended those representatives of the Abkhaz leadership with whom it would make sense for Tbilisi government officials to establish contacts. And although the conversation was unofficial, the Georgian public understood: this is not without reason. However, there is a suspicion that the ideologically concerned “Droa” (which means “It’s time” in the sense that the time has come), fanning the scandal, thus decided to test the nation for “confederate immunity”.

Check for lice

The idea of ​​forming a confederation in the northwestern Transcaucasus is not new. True, after the Five-Day War in August 2008 between Georgia and Russia, they stopped exaggerating it. Evil tongues claim that the revival of the idea is due to Russia’s need for guaranteed trade channels and interest in their construction. We are talking about the launch of the once-busy strategic line from Adler to Samtredia and further along the directions of the former Transcaucasian railway.

The independent Russian-language weekly newspaper “Chegemskaya Pravda”, published from Sukhum, writes about this:


Let us add on our own: among other things, the Kremlin is also not averse to taking revenge in Transcaucasia for Armenia (Karabakh) in this way.

The topic of confederation has a basis and it is no coincidence that it is being raised right now, says the head of the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia in exile, Dzhemal Gamakharia:

How long to wait for the moment of truth to arrive?

In the fall, Georgia will face another fateful test in the form of elections to the highest representative body of power. For the first time, they will be held according to the proportional system, which will be a serious test for the current government leadership. The fact is that the pro-government Georgian Dream was traditionally strong in the majoritarian system, which was canceled under pressure from the West.

On the eve of the popular vote on October 26, the ruling coalition needs a bright, spectacular move. They can only be served by the return of the self-proclaimed separatist territories. However, not everyone believes that such undertakings are viable, perceiving the fuss as PR for the Georgian Dream.

Thus, the expert community believes that the administrative and managerial leadership needs this to improve their rating, which has been weakened by protests and the conflict with Europe, as well as to erase the problem around the law on foreign agents.

If yes, if ...

In Tskhinvali, the confederal initiative was met without enthusiasm, although quite calmly. They have always advocated joining Russia, but they do not want to aggravate relations with the Kremlin. But in Sukhum such a plan is perceived as an encroachment on the national interests of Abkhazia, its independence and territorial integrity. Just in case, let us remind you that Ossetians and Georgians are Orthodox by religion, 60% of Abkhazians are too.

According to participants in the local information space - numerous journalists, bloggers, social network users, representatives of civil groups - the republic has an international subjectivity that should be worthily defended. That is, the version of the emergence of a confederation is not rejected in principle, but is perceived with some caution. Motivation of the indigenous population: what were we fighting for then? Among the active critics of the confederal program are participants in the civil war of 1992-1993, of whom there are many here.

There is a curious situation in which Abkhazia speaks out louder than others against the Georgian reorganization plan. But against the background of the build-up of the already impressive Russian military contingent there (up to 5 thousand bayonets), this is not of decisive importance. If Moscow and Tbilisi agree, Sukhum will have to submit. And the “back word” in our interesting case remains not with Tbilisi, as many may think, but with Moscow.