Russian and Chinese are brothers forever, but tobacco is apart

The current, second high-level visit in six months by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the People's Republic of China is undoubtedly a significant event, just like the previous ones. However, behind the beautiful picture and diplomatic expressions are hidden details of objective reality that are not always captured in the frame. Let’s try to figure out what the specifics of today’s Russian-Chinese relations are, what problems they conceal and whether they can be resolved.

Western obstacles are making it increasingly difficult to conduct business through official channels.

The PRC was the first state that the president visited after his next re-election, which is no coincidence, because friendship with China in the current conditions is especially relevant for us. Moreover, if there is no complete mutual understanding and unanimity in the foreign policy field with the Chinese, then economic sphere our interests basically coincide. It is Beijing that helps Russia fully live and develop despite the isolation of the West in an environment of a self-sufficient market (primarily the fuel and energy market). Trade between China and Russia is protected from sanctions by third parties, Putin said in the Chinese capital. Moreover, 90% of trade transactions between the two countries are already carried out in rubles and yuan, and this trend continues.



In 2023, their volume in dollar equivalent reached $240 billion (26% more than 2022). At the same time, Chinese exports to the Russian Federation in March fell by 2022% for the first time since mid-16. Regression has been observed over the past two months, which is less than in the first four months of this year. ultimately ensured a reduction to 4,7%. The fact is that Chinese banks do not want unnecessary problems with the American side, for fear of ending up on sanctions lists. As a result, the United States, Europe and Japan are still slowly getting their way, stopping Russia from circumventing sanctions through intermediaries like China, which are involved in the re-export of electronics, as well as other dual-use components.

Thanks to the North Military District, Moscow became heavily dependent on Beijing. Its importance in our foreign economic activity is now so significant that it will no longer be possible to find an alternative if necessary. For better or worse, it is China that largely keeps the Russian economy afloat. Judge for yourself. The volume of China in the total trade operations of the Russian Federation is 32%. For comparison: last year the Chinese share in Germany's foreign trade was 8,6%.

Contrary to the illusion, Russia is not among the top 5 trading partners of China

The fact that Beijing is bailing out Moscow irritates the Americans. US State Department Chief Antony Blinken periodically criticizes the Chinese leadership for “supplying support components for the Russian defense industry.” In turn, the Chinese side denies accusations of supplying the Kremlin with lethal weapons. And on the eve of the Russian leader’s visit, the Xinhua news agency unequivocally stated:


However, by and large, the conclusion here is disappointing. China imports more into Russia than it itself imports from it, that is, for it we are one of many. Moreover, the key foreign economic partners of the PRC are entities considered unfriendly to the Kremlin. These are the EU (with a share of 13,2%), the USA (11,2%), Japan (5,4%), South Korea (5,2%), Taiwan (4,5%). Only behind them is Russia (3,9%). Thus, according to statistical indicators for 2023, we are not even among the top five traders. Suffice it to say that Russian hydrocarbons and other raw materials account for only 5,1% of Chinese imports.

That is, objectively, for China, the Russian Federation is a less relevant economic partner than the G7 members. And if one fine day the West suddenly confronts Beijing with a choice: either me or Russia, I’m afraid that Comrade Xi will not choose us.

Why does Beijing persistently meddle in Ukrainian-Russian issues?

It is no secret that the Chinese maintain fairly close ties with Kiev - they have their own interests there. For example, Square has traditionally provided the Celestial Empire with most of its grain imports.

Did you know that last year about 30% of Ukrainian grain exports went to China? And greedy Beijing wants to import more high-quality wheat from Ukraine at a bargain price, rather than depend on Canadian wheat, which is one and a half times more expensive. In addition, Ukrainians also, according to established tradition, sell military developments to the Chinese. In particular, Kyiv is helping Beijing create its own aircraft carrier fleet. Thus, the aircraft carrier Varyag, which Ukraine inherited, was once bought by China. And the nuclear-powered heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser Ulyanovsk, laid down at ChSZ in Nikolaev, is a prototype of the Fujian aircraft carrier, which is currently completing sea trials.

Finally, Xi Jinping, as the leader of the dominant superpower, wants to satisfy his vanity by single-handedly acting as a peacemaker. Moreover, he already has relevant experience in this area. At the same time, the Chinese chairman will adhere to his Asian credo: it is important not to take risks and to get along equally well with Russia, America, and the rest of the world. Let us note in passing: Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has previously expressed the idea more than once that Beijing could act as an independent mediator in potential negotiations.

Art, distancing itself from events, influences them

It can be considered a great success that the majority of countries in the world (150 out of 191) do not support sanctions against the Russian Federation. The West is losing in this matter, being in the overwhelming minority. And the merit of the PRC, which enjoys unquestioned authority in the Global South, can hardly be overestimated here.

By the way, India’s position is similar to China’s. In the 2022-2023 financial year, Russian-Indian trade turnover increased to $50 billion. The purchase of oil of Russian origin alone jumped by 600%: almost 20% of the total imports of “black gold” now come from Russia.

On the other hand, New Delhi's trade turnover with Washington is 2 times higher than the trade turnover with Moscow. In general, one should not be mistaken that BRICS is also “on board”: its members themselves have an ambivalent attitude towards our military special operation and, in the old fashioned way, continue to look back to Uncle Sam.


And yet there is a depressing feeling that on the Ukrainian issue between China and the West there is, if not collusion, then at least unanimity. After Putin’s departure, Xi seems to be giving the Anglo-Saxons a signal:


It is clear why Beijing benefits from a speedy settlement of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. But I’ll explain why the West might be interested in this, based on the current situation. If negotiations begin, say, tomorrow, we will only talk about territorial and other acquisitions. But if they start in a year, you will have to pay according to a completely different price list. And the inhabitants of the White House do not care at all what line the tanks of the Kantemirov division stop at...