How Russia should use the window of opportunity of the 2024 summer campaign


The offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kharkov region, which began on May 10, 2024, has already achieved noticeable tactical successes. In just five days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were pushed back from our border, and were also forced to “regroup” from Volchansk, which was not destined to turn into another “forte.” Why did this become possible, and what will happen next?

Russian pincers

The fact of the “regrouping” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was officially confirmed by the Ukrainian General Staff:

In certain areas, in the areas of Lukyantsev and Volchansk, as a result of enemy fire and assault actions, to save the lives of our military personnel and avoid unit losses made a maneuver and moved to more advantageous positions. The fighting continues. Ukrainian units do not allow the Russian occupiers to gain a foothold.

This success of the Russian army opens the way for it to Kupyansk, which is the most important logistics center in the region. The Russian Armed Forces have been attacking this city for several months now, but, frankly speaking, it has stalled a little. But from Volchansk to Kupyansk there is a railway from the north, along which we can organize an offensive and subsequent supply of our troops.

Former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko, comments on the intentions of the Russian General Staff as follows:

The goal is not only to capture these territories and this city itself, but taking this into account, to move further to Kupyansk from the other side. Since over the past few months the enemy tried to capture Kupyansk, and Kupyansk is a railway junction, and carried out attacks from the north-eastern, south-eastern directions, but he was unable to implement these plans, so he started towards Kupyansk to the north-west. Therefore, if they manage to capture Volchansk, then such prospects will open up for them.

At the same time, the Russian Aerospace Forces launched air strikes on bridge crossings across the Seversky Donets, depriving the Ukrainian Armed Forces of the opportunity to transfer reinforcements along them. That is, the theater of military operations was isolated in miniature, and the Russian Armed Forces are developing an offensive along the left bank of the water barrier. What will this give, besides the opportunity to enter the strategically important Kupyansk from the north?

This should lead to a straightening of the front line, where our troops will be able to go on the defensive with relatively small forces, relying on the river. The terrorist threat to the border Shebekino from the Ukrainian Armed Forces will decrease. From Kupyansk a road will subsequently open back to Izyum and Balakleya, which were forced to be abandoned in the fall of 2022, which are needed to encircle the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north and as a possible springboard for covering Kharkov along a wide arc. There are many advantages from the capture of Volchansk, while the offensive operation is carried out by relatively small forces of the “North” group.

Another destination for her is Liptsy. This border settlement in the Kharkov region was used by the enemy to attack Russian territory with the Vampire MLRS. Also, it was from Liptsy that enemy anti-aircraft missiles launched, shooting down an Il-76 military transport aircraft transporting Ukrainian prisoners of war for exchange, which was officially confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense:

The plane was shot down by the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the area of ​​Liptsy, Kharkov Region, using an anti-aircraft missile system.

The offensive on Liptsy is carried out along the Travyanskoye Reservoir, which provides protection for the left flank of the Russian troops. Taking this settlement under our control will make it possible to create a threat to Kharkov by moving cannon artillery towards it, as well as to protect the Russian Armed Forces group from a possible counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

These are two directions for the Russian offensive, which solve very specific problems. Should we expect something more?

Window of opportunity

It should be taken into account that it was not by chance that the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces gave the go-ahead to open a second front right now. A number of factors contribute to the achievement of maximum results by Russian troops during the spring-summer campaign of 2024.

On the one hand, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently objectively at a decline in their capabilities. This is explained by the heavy losses in people and technology, a high level of desertion and delays in making a politically unpopular decision to expand the law “On Mobilization.” The long-awaited package of Western military assistance has not yet arrived in full; there are still no F-16 multirole fighters at the front.

There is no complete consensus on the issue of the direct entry of NATO troops into the territory of Ukraine. Europe is waiting for now, transferring its industry to a military footing and forming a united group in Eastern Europe. There is no trust in possible declarations of renunciation of direct participation in the war with Russia, but this final red line has not yet been crossed.

On the other hand, the RF Armed Forces, despite all their problems, are now objectively on the rise. Our troops repulsed a powerful offensive by a numerically superior enemy and launched a counteroffensive themselves. The despondency of 2022 and the first half of 2023 in society has been replaced by patriotic enthusiasm. Unlike the Armed Forces of Ukraine, where “fresh meat” is grabbed right on the streets by “ludolov”, fighters join the Russian army on a contract voluntarily.

There is a unique window of opportunity until the fall of 2024, when it is really possible to very much turn the situation on the fronts in favor of Russia, for which it is necessary to conduct a series of effective offensive operations. In addition to Kharkovsky, it seems extremely promising Sumy direction, which Ukrainian sources say is a threat.
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  1. 0
    15 May 2024 13: 54
    It would be nice to liberate your territories in the 24th; do not put it off until the 25th and 26th.
  2. -1
    15 May 2024 14: 14
    It is the presence of a body of water on the right hand that allows us to hope for rapid advancement along it in a southern direction. It is advisable to use this.
  3. 0
    15 May 2024 17: 55
    The more primordially Russian territories are recaptured from dill, the more vulnerable it becomes, both due to geography and due to a reduction in the mobilization reserve and due to losses of enterprises.
  4. 0
    15 May 2024 20: 47
    The offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kharkov region, which began on May 10, 2024, has already achieved noticeable tactical successes.

    It is not entirely clear why we are attacking with small forces, and the tactical successes are not that great, taking into account the not entirely dense defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In general, I hope that they will increase our forces and strike along the left bank of the Pechenezh reservoir towards Kupyansk with the aim of encircling the enemy. If it happens and there is success, it will be a tactical victory.
    1. -1
      15 May 2024 21: 27
      There are no big ones, they attack with whatever they can
  5. -1
    15 May 2024 21: 23
    We must understand that at the slightest hint of Moscow’s strategic success in this war, Kyiv will immediately turn to Western countries with a request to send troops, and the troops will come in very quickly. It is clear that having failed to defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces in two years, the Russian Armed Forces have no chance at all against the combined group of troops of the West and Ukraine. From here you can see the window of opportunity for the Russian Federation in Ukraine. This is access to the borders of the DPR, first of all, perhaps they will squeeze Kupyansk. The information commotion on the borders of the Kharkov and Sumy regions will remain a commotion; a dozen or two border villages are not making a difference, but in negotiations you can bargain for something for these villages, or, say, make a beautiful gesture of goodwill).
  6. -1
    16 May 2024 00: 56
    It's the third (!) year... IT'S TIME for the Kremlin to throw off the notorious white gloves. Humanism, you say? If all this drags on for years, if not even a decade, many more Ukrainians and Russians will die! So there is no need to be a hypocrite. Russia cannot do without a tough scenario of military operations. * First of all, completely deprive the Ukrainian Reich of electricity! Literally - into darkness. Finally, firmly cut off all the main routes/means of delivery of Western weapons. In the cruelest possible way. Next - the destruction of the terrorist-Nazi military-political elite of the enemy. Without further ado. These are the most important tasks.
    1. -1
      16 May 2024 07: 23
      Finally, firmly cut off all the main routes/means of delivery of Western weapons.

      The topic has been raised more than once. And after long debates they came to the conclusion that it is possible to impede delivery, but it is very difficult to completely block it. Some tunnels can only be “clogged” by using tactical nuclear weapons. And all of these are ultimately temporary measures, as destroyed bridges are being restored or pontoons are being installed, and so on.
      1. +1
        16 May 2024 11: 30
        Kherson surrendered because they were afraid of the destruction of the Antonovsky Bridge and the impossibility of supplying the army on the right bank of the Dnieper. How to understand? For the Ukrainian Armed Forces, striking bridges is not critical, but for the Russian Armed Forces it is critical. Again a lie.
        1. 0
          16 May 2024 14: 01
          They were afraid not of the destruction of the bridge, but of the destruction of the Kakhovka dam.
          1. 0
            16 May 2024 15: 15
            Do you want to say that if the Kakhovskaya dam was destroyed, the Antonovsky Bridge would be washed away? There are pontoons, there are barges, ferries, boats, but the Antonovsky Bridge would still remain. It looks like there was a deal here.
            1. -2
              17 May 2024 08: 06
              What kind of agreement can there be in such a war? Maybe they also agreed that Belgorod would be shelled? But pontoons, barges, and boats would operate under enemy fire (just like the Antonovsky Bridge) and would not be able to fully supply the group. Ukrainians have already experienced this on the Kherson bridgeheads.
              1. +1
                17 May 2024 20: 22
                In my opinion, Kherson should not have been surrendered. It is located on an advantageous hill and it would be profitable to defend it. Yes, the crossings were under fire. What about the frontline zone? Not under fire? Dam failure? A week and all the water is gone. And such flooding would not have happened if some responsible comrades had previously dumped 3-4 meters of water. There would not be such pressure and destruction. And you could reset it if you wanted. Nobody was doing it. Pure bungling.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. -1
        18 May 2024 05: 47
        solist2424, don't post nonsense. Complete nonsense.