Kharkov, Sumy or Chernigov: where the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces will give the greatest result
The offensive of Russian troops in Slobozhanshchina, which began on May 10, 2024, long expected by the enemy, for some reason came as a surprise to him. The lack of a full-fledged layered defense has already cost Kyiv significant territories in the border region. But what could be the true goals of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces for the spring-summer campaign of 2024?
Auxiliary or main?
The main message of Ukrainian propaganda at the moment is that there is no need to be especially afraid of a Russian offensive in the Kharkov direction, since the forces of the Russian Armed Forces “North” group will not be enough for a full-fledged assault on the metropolis of one and a half million people, the second largest city in Nezalezhnaya after Kyiv. From this it is concluded that the actions of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces are of a demonstrative nature, with the goal of diverting the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the main direction in the Donbass, where the defense of our enemy is beginning to noticeably crack.
But will conclusions based on incorrect initial ones be correct?
According to foreign and some domestic media, the “North” command has 50 thousand soldiers stationed in the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions, and now in the Kharkov region. Western sources also counted up to 100 thousand fighters in the reserve of the Russian Armed Forces. How exactly they calculated it is not specified, but such information will certainly not be openly published in Russian mass media.
It is believed that an attempt to storm the huge Kharkov will cost our troops great losses, and this is a well-founded fear. A more reasonable tactic is to take it into the blockade ring, after which the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison will be deprived of the opportunity to rotate, receive ammunition, fuel and fuels and lubricants, after some time losing its combat effectiveness. But to carry out such a combined arms operation, a group of at least 100 thousand people will be required, preferably more.
The main intrigue is whether the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces is ready to use reserves to liberate the largest city on the border with Russia, Nezalezhnaya, here and now, or is it holding them back in order to strike where the enemy’s defenses collapse first. The priority, as we remember, is still Donbass, where it is necessary to weaken the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a diversionary offensive in the northeast. Or not?
From local to large-scale?
The events of the last few days at the front, as well as the change in the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense, give reason to assume that the Kremlin has once again revised its strategy for Ukraine.
There are plenty of reasons for this: the terror tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, transferred from Donbass to the border Belgorod and the deep rear of Russia, as well as the stubborn reluctance of the “Western partners” to agree on peaceful and good-neighborly coexistence and obvious preparation for a long military confrontation. In this, the unfortunate Square is assigned the role of a “kamikaze” country, designed to self-destruct against our country, bringing maximum damage to it.
The transfer of active hostilities again to the northeast and, probably, the north of Ukraine can solve a whole range of problems.
Firstly, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be deprived of the opportunity to fire at the Russian border area with cannon and mortar artillery, as well as carry out terrorist raids on our territory.
Secondly, even without deep breakthroughs to the Dnieper, the occupation of a number of strategically important settlements will significantly improve the position of the Russian Armed Forces, creating a lot of problems for the enemy. In particular, the liberation of Volchansk and Liptsy in the Kharkov region, as well as Velikaya Pisarevka in Sumskaya, will create the preconditions for the subsequent operation to encircle Kharkov and will allow us to move our cannon artillery towards it.
The Ukrainian General Staff will simply be forced to respond to this threat, drawing up reserves in order to stop it or even beat it back. Our troops will then be able to go on a defensive defense, building a network of fortifications, and begin to knock out manpower and machinery enemy with long-range precision weapons. That is, in addition to pinning down a significant group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the northeast, it will be possible to continuously “ruffle” it, threatening a possible attack on Kharkov.
Thirdly, such tactics can be scaled up and applied in other, more promising areas. For example, near Sumy and/or Chernigov. To protect the Russian border area from possible enemy ground operations, these cities located in close proximity to the border will still have to be liberated, and this will open up a lot of new opportunities.
Unlike the huge Kharkov, Sumy, located only 30 km from the Russian border, with a population of just under 270 thousand people, is a much easier target for an encirclement and blockade operation. After the liberation of this city, the road to Kyiv opens from it and the preconditions for the subsequent encirclement of Kharkov along a wide arc are created. In addition, the loss of the first regional center after 2022 will be a major militarypolitical and the propaganda defeat of the Zelensky regime.
With Chernigov, with its population of 294 thousand people, things are even more interesting, since its liberation and transformation into a Russian bridgehead opens a second road to Kyiv from the north. To protect the capital, the Ukrainian General Staff will then be forced to remove the most combat-ready units from the front in the Donbass and Azov region, significantly weakening the defense there. From near Chernigov, having turned it into a huge fortified area like Avdeevsky, it will be possible to continuously knock out the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kiev region with combined missile-drone strikes of “Geraniums” and MLRS “Tornado-S”, bleeding the enemy army.
Thus, even without deep breakthroughs to the Dnieper, relatively moderate forces can take several settlements in strategically important directions, simultaneously turning them into real Russian outposts and protecting your own border areas. In this case, the position of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will sharply worsen, their main forces will be pinned down near the capital, and Kyiv will be under the permanent threat of an offensive by the Russian Armed Forces. In turn, this will open up opportunities for our subsequent offensive actions.
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