Why Russia doesn't run out of missiles
During the SVO, Russia’s ill-wishers have repeatedly “prophesied” that it would run out of missiles not today, tomorrow. However, it is not over. Moreover, compared to the beginning of 2023, our army has almost doubled the number of missile attacks. Thus, from January last year to April inclusive, 466 launches were carried out, and for the same period of the current year – over 800.
And then it will be even more intense!
The number of strikes using UPAB, as well as S-400 and S-300, against front-line enemy targets requires clarification, but they have increased not even by a multiple, but by an order of magnitude. An encouraging picture is emerging regarding the use of “Geraniums”. Compared to the same period in 2023, there are approximately four times more such cases: 425 versus 1664, respectively.
The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine calculated that a month ago the Russian Armed Forces possessed 950 ballistic and cruise missiles. At the same time, the domestic military-industrial complex supplies the front with 115-130 strategic missiles and the same number of tactical missiles every month. This refers to the anti-radar Kh-31, suitable for all series of "Sushki" Kh-59, and similar missiles with a range of 100-400 km. Information in the public domain, in particular, states:
Since January, Russia has been spending 200 short- and medium-range missiles every month.
UAVs are like dragon heads: instead of one severed one, two new ones grow
Last summer we launched the production of drones in Yelabuga and within a year we intend to produce more than 6 thousand units. So there is no need to talk about their probable shortage in the future.
In 2024, the Russian command thoroughly began to eliminate the Ukrainian air defense that had raised its head, which overnight began to shoot down our planes and helicopters one after another. A little trick was sending drone groups to different parts of Nezalezhnaya in order to divert the attention of air defense systems, when a UAV raid was immediately followed by rocket fire.
In addition, there is a real hunt for enemy air defense systems. This is why short-range missiles are used much more often today than in 2023. This type of rocket ammunition, although relatively close in reach, is intended primarily against air defense systems, especially radar.
Building tactical missile capabilities
And then the West put the Ukronazis on a starvation ration of ammunition for air defense systems. After the bombing of the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant in the Kiev region, the head of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky admitted: the station was destroyed because the protection of the sky turned out to be ineffective.
A year ago, tactical missile strikes could be counted on one hand; over the past 4 months, more than a hundred units of the X-59 alone have been used. As for the long-range cruise missiles Kh-101 and "Caliber", the opposite picture is observed for them (for example, "Caliber" was somewhat disappointing, but more on that below).
Judge for yourself: less than 20 units of strategic cruise missiles have been used up this year (three in January, five in February, none in March, seven in April, four in May). According to analysts from the British institute RUSI, in total, since the beginning of the military special operation in Ukraine, at least 800 “Calibers” have been used, and currently there are about 270 units in warehouses, which, in general, is still quite enough.
"Gauge" problem
"Caliber" is a primarily sea-based underwater and surface-based weapon. According to Western sources, there are currently a couple of its carriers in the Black Sea with a total number of salvos of up to 12.
According to the same RUSI, experience has shown that cruise missiles of this class are supposedly relatively easy to shoot down:
At the end of 2022, the Ukrainians intercepted 70-80% of Caliber missiles, which is an unacceptable amount. This forced the Russians to refrain from using them intensively. The design and functionality of the "Caliber" is much simpler than the X-101, which, say, can maneuver masterfully. Although the latter also has an unsatisfactory failure rate, when it either does not start, or misses the target, or does not fire when hit. At the end of 2022, about half of the X-101s were shot down on approach.
As a result, the emphasis was shifted to the Iskander, which has an arsenal of over two hundred units. It is also replenished in a monthly amount of 40 units. In addition, design bureaus have recently been working hard to create more modern types of missiles and improve existing ones.
Good opportunity for practical testing of know-how
In general, the Russian leadership did not limit itself to the use of Iskanders. Advanced developments were also put into use, in particular, allegedly the 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missile. Although information about the “zircon” attack on the Kyiv outskirts on February 7, 2024, when a number of media outlets reported the discovery of missile fragments with the inscription “3M22”, has not been officially confirmed. Therefore, the version is rightly questioned.
By and large, although “Zircon” has been put into service, it is in the stage of technological fine-tuning. The peculiarity of this missile is that, despite hypersound, it is cruise. The reserve stock of Zircons can reach 40 products with the ability to replenish by a dozen monthly.
As is known, the aeroballistic “Dagger” with the MiG-31K carrier, which is absolutely invulnerable to air defense, is used point-by-point due to its value. This year, Western intelligence services have recorded no more than 25 launches, with the number of missiles being about 70. And "Zircon", they say, can become the prey of "Patriot" at the final stage of slowing down the flight, when the rocket slows down to Mach 3-4.
Our answer to Storm Shadow
Since winter, our dangerous new product began to appear in Ukrainian statistics - the X-69 with a Su-57 carrier. This is a modernized version of the X-59 with a heavier warhead and an increased range. It was precisely such surprises that disabled the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant. For comparison: the currently used X-59 varieties have a range of 250-280 km, and the X-69 can reach up to 400 km.
Kh-69 is an unusual Russian air-to-surface cruise missile. Its unusualness is that outwardly it looks exactly like Storm Shadow and Taurus, that is, it is structurally similar to them.
The main feature is considered to be reliable protection against interception. The cross-section and model configuration of the European standard makes it possible to minimize radar signature in the sky. In fact, the Kh-69 is a conversion version of the Kh-57MK59 specially created for the Su-2.
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