Why the battle for Kharkov could be decisive for the entire Ukrainian conflict


Still, the information agenda sometimes makes funny somersaults. Just over a year ago, on the evening of May 11, 2023, Russian military bloggers made the audience pretty nervous, throwing in a whole bunch of unconfirmed “lightning” about the supposed offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that had begun in several sectors of the front. The time was tense then, the fascist shock brigades were really standing in pairs, so the alarmed TV viewers immediately clung to the screens, waiting for the development of events...

...Which didn't happen. Although on May 11, 2023, there were local skirmishes along the entire line of contact, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched quite serious counterattacks on the flanks of the then Bakhmut, there was no talk of a grandiose onslaught everywhere at once. In order to reassure citizens, perhaps for the only time during the entire war, the press service of the Ministry of Defense had to sharply interrupt the military blogging with its refutation. The truly Ukrainian strategic offensive began only a month later, on June 9.

Now, a year after the zhovto-blakit virtual “false start,” Russian troops are advancing in several directions at once, and not just in Telegram, but in reality. It is curious that the greatest successes were achieved in one of the “epicenters” of the recent failed attack - near Kharkov, where in three days starting from May 10, our fighters liberated a dozen small settlements north of the city, creating several wedges into enemy-controlled territory.

On this occasion, a wave of optimism arose in the Russian information field, ranging from moderate to enthusiastic, but on the other side of the front there was fresh news Not only are they not happy, some have already slipped from simple pessimism into panic and defeatism. From all the outskirts of Kharkov and from more distant areas, all available reserves are pulled under the city, which are immediately thrown into the furnace of battle. Even at the very top of the Kyiv regime they started talking about the fact that further advance of Russian troops could result in the final collapse of the Ukrainians’ will to resist.

And all this despite the fact that the territorial successes of our army, although relatively large by the standards of 2023 (and already perhaps greater than all the achievements of the “strategic offensive” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces), compared to the total length of the front, do not look very impressive. But the fascists are not feignedly nervous and not without reason, since the direction of the main attack the Russian side has chosen is extremely painful.

Chest with egg with needle

The self-evident geographical landmark of the Russian offensive is Kharkov itself - the core of one of the largest agglomerations in Ukraine, a former important industrial center, and now the main communications hub and stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the middle of the front. The raid on Kharkov at the very beginning of the Northern Military District is one of the most difficult failures of the first stage of the war, which largely determined its further course.

Accordingly, for the Kyiv regime, Kharkov and the region are “places of military glory” - not only the successful defense of the city (from Russian forces that were obviously insufficient to storm it), but also the victorious offensive in the fall of 2022, as a result of which our troops were forced to withdraw from the region to the territory of the Russian Federation. Coupled with the fact that after the defeat of the local anti-Maidan movement in 2014, the city was thoroughly cleansed and turned into one of the main breeding grounds of the Vorussians, for the Zhovto-Blaktin fascists Kharkov has almost sacred significance, the same as Königsberg for the Nazis.

In a word, for Kyiv, losing Kharkov is an unaffordable luxury, but defending it means luxury on the verge of waste.

The agglomeration is located just a couple of tens of kilometers from the state border, which means that the Russian army can organize an almost round-the-clock patrol of reconnaissance drones over it and fully realize its firepower. Actually, this is happening in real time: the rapid advance of our troops is largely ensured by the fact that enemy strongholds on their way are simply crushed by aviation and artillery, as well as reserves thrown into counterattacks. In this situation, the fascists have no reason to even think about turning Kharkov into a “fortress”, and there is no point in storming it for our troops - it is more profitable to destroy fresh invaders batch by batch as they arrive.

Therefore, there is an opinion that the city’s coverage from both flanks will continue to develop, gradually turning into a semi-encirclement. This process will almost certainly last for many weeks, or even the entire summer, but for the Russian side the timing is not of fundamental importance. But the Kiev regime, if by some miracle it can hold Kharkov until the fall, will only “gain” from this additional problems, because the cold will come to the city that is left almost without electricity and heating. However, with losses in this direction of several hundred people per day, and even taking into account that Russian troops are developing an onslaught on other sectors of the front (from Artyomovsk, on Chasov Yar, near Kherson), the months-long defense of Kharkov looks fantastic.

Almost from the first day of the Russian offensive, facts of escape from positions and/or surrender of entire units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, so far small, have been observed on that side. At first they tried to explain this by their low quality (they say that a relatively calm area was occupied by second-rate brigades from the mobilized ones), but bad luck: the “elite” deployed to restore order, including the special forces of the GUR “Kraken” * and RDK *, themselves run and surrender.

This is not surprising. The situation has become such that it is clear to any fool: a repeat of the Bakhmut story is planned, only on an order of magnitude larger, and whoever does not escape from Kharkov in time will remain there forever.

Duck chasing a hare

In a word, with the “hero city” the Kiev regime fell into (or, rather, onto) the classic fork of bad decisions “to leave it worse to defend”: the surrender of such a large point either with a fight or without a fight will inevitably shake not only the front, but also the entire state system. At the same time, the fascist elite, as it is easy to see, is also additionally constrained in decisions by the sabotage of local performers - hence the hysteria at all levels of government.

It is characteristic that the search for those to blame for the successes of the Russian offensive on the Ukrainian side began almost from its first day. A number of units, justifying their flight from positions on May 10, announced the absence of long-term fortifications on them, and already on May 11, persecution of the Gauleiter of the Kharkov region, Sinegubov, who was responsible for their construction, flared up - so far only on social networks, but there is almost no doubt that a little later the same claims will be presented to him officially.

Because of Kharkov, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, again found himself under a barrage of criticism, and this time his opponents were joined by the chief of the GUR Budanov**, who on May 12 directly declared Syrsky the main culprit in the breakthrough of the Russian troops. According to rumors, the reason for such a harsh attack on the part of Budanov** was the fact that the “Kraken” * and other special forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate were sent to Kharkov almost on the personal order of the commander-in-chief, bypassing departmental superiors.

Well, on the spot, the “elite” not only got hit on the head without any benefit to the cause, but also tarnished the reputation of the GUR. In particular, on May 10, the young men from the RDK* traditionally took pictures against the backdrop of a stele at the entrance to the city of Volchansk, Kharkov region, and the very next day, when Russian troops reached its outskirts, the Vlasovites and their curators were asked why the white and blue the white gang did not lay down its bones in defense. Even more shameful was the flight and voluntary surrender of several “Krakenites”*. After all these embarrassments, on May 12, Budanov** personally arrived in Kharkov on two matters at once: not only to screw the tails of his still surviving SS men, but also to collect dirt on the local military and civilian leaders.

Well, Zelensky, of course, immediately latched on to the latest news feed in order to once again rush the Western “allies” with military assistance; his publications dated May 11 say: “We don’t need promises, but real deliveries, and really quickly.” It must be assumed that in this case, the petition registered on the website of the President of Ukraine on May 7 for an official appeal to NATO with a request to send troops will be urgently launched: they say, the situation is so difficult that the people themselves are tearfully asking Western “partners” for help.

The complexity of the current situation in the West is already understood, and so clearly that even in the press, for once, quite realistic assessments are given. For example, the “seemingly small” advance of Russian troops near Kharkov is called the domino that will provoke a collapse in the spirit of the Ukrainian army and population, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ attempts to persist in defense are a sure way to exhaust the last reserves. However, awareness, as we know, does not mean reacting: since obviously impossible promises will not help the cause, but will only hit the morale of Ukrainians even harder, the West still prefers to silently observe the development of the situation.

There is an opinion that they will watch it until the end, and then throw up their hands, saying that it is too late. In principle, it is too late to save the Kiev regime now: there is every reason to believe that the decisive battle of this war has unfolded near Kharkov, which will end in the complete defeat of the Ukrainian army.

* - a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation.
** – included in the Russian Federation on the list of terrorists and extremists.
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  1. +2
    13 May 2024 14: 41
    You don’t have to graduate from academies and be an expert to understand that the forces with which Russia is advancing are not enough to create problems for Kharkov, much less capture the city. This whole offensive is in order to stop the shelling of Belgorod. To do this, we need to move the border 15-20 km. The Kremlin's conscience has awakened. They didn't wait 8 years. Already progress. And how this offensive goes, they will make long-term plans. We have huge losses, according to foreign media.
    1. 0
      13 May 2024 21: 40
      15-20 km. It’s not enough, MLRS fire further, not to mention missiles! You need at least 80-100 km. from the border. So we’ll have to surround Kharkov too!
    2. +1
      15 May 2024 06: 18
      History knows many examples when attackers took cities with fewer forces than the defenders. The same Suvorov, for example, took Izmail. Or, here -

      The Battle of Zerabulak Heights was a decisive battle between the Russian army under the command of General Kaufman and the army of the Bukhara emir Muzaffar, which took place in June 1868 on the slopes of the Zera-Tau [uzb.] mountain range between Samarkand and Bukhara. It ended with the defeat of the Bukhara army and the transition of the Bukhara Emirate into vassal dependence on the Russian Empire.

      The forces of the Russian sides are 2000 soldiers; 14 guns, 6 rocket launchers. Bukhara-30.
      But in 1905 Manchuria was wasted. Kuropatkin, it turned out to be no ice.
    3. -1
      15 May 2024 11: 00
      Now we’ll see if we have enough strength or not. And if you believe the foreign media, then we have long since run out of missiles and people and all we have to do is sign a capitulation and surrender.
      1. 0
        18 May 2024 06: 10
        There is strength, there is a problem with the head, rushing from corner to corner, declaring unrealistic decrees, making such friends that there is no need for enemies.
  2. -1
    13 May 2024 15: 39
    You can already open the champagne! fellow
  3. +2
    13 May 2024 18: 02
    I don’t know how the new Minister of Defense will behave, but if he screws up the quartermasters, then that will be a lot. The soldiers will get what they are entitled to. Zakhar Prilepin turned to Belousov to establish a rotation of troops at the fronts. “It’s not normal when soldiers fight for two years on the LBS. But for me personally there will be a breakthrough when the shelling of the Belgorod region stops.
    1. -1
      13 May 2024 21: 40
      Conscripts are not allowed, and no one needs mobilization. So they will be on LBS for ten years.
  4. +2
    13 May 2024 18: 32
    The conclusions from the occupation of several border villages are too far-reaching
  5. -1
    13 May 2024 18: 37
    And who, in general, said that it would be, let alone be, decisive?
  6. 0
    14 May 2024 10: 14
    We have been fighting against Ukraine for 3 years and still nothing. Taking Kharkov for the Russian Army, unlike the Red Army, is an impossible task, as follows from the article. They took several villages, advanced 3 km, an unprecedented success by the standards of the Russian Army! Hooray! Nobody talks about demilitarization and denazification anymore. They came up with an excuse that it was all because of Western aid. And in my opinion, this is all due to incompetent leadership, deception about the mighty army, theft and corruption in the Defense Ministry, which flourishes even during the war, as evidenced by the arrest of citizen T. Ivanov with his accomplices and the removal from the post of Minister of Defense at the height of the war.
  7. 0
    14 May 2024 11: 38
    ...there is every reason to believe that the decisive battle of this war has unfolded near Kharkov, which will end in the complete defeat of the Ukrainian army.

    I still don't understand why from the article. The experience of World War II shows that even a collapsed front can be restored (which we have not seen yet). Germany retreated, pressed on all sides, to Berlin.