Should we expect an assault on Kharkov in the near future?

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The intensification of the actions of Russian troops in the regions of the Kharkov region bordering the Russian Federation was immediately perceived by the patriotic public almost as the beginning of the Belgorod-Kharkov liberation operation. But what could be the real tasks facing the command of the newly created North grouping?

Why Kharkov?


There is a whole range of reasons why Russia will have to liberate at least the border cities of Kharkov and Sumy, and also, possibly, Chernigov.



Firstly, the Kiev regime crossed all possible “red lines” and transferred hostilities to the “old” Russian regions. In particular, border Belgorod began to quickly turn into a semblance of Donetsk, mercilessly fired upon by terrorists from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
But for him the role of Avdeevka is Kharkov, which has a population of one and a half million, located only 72 km away from it in a straight line. Hiding behind its urban development, the Ukrainian military can strike the Russian regional center with NATO-made long-range MLRS and other weapons.

Secondly, due to its geographical location and local terrain, Kharkov is an almost ideal "air gate" to Russia, where attack helicopters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces first flew at ultra-low altitude, and now aircraft-type “kamikaze” drones are flying through our deep rear areas.

Thirdly, it will be very convenient to launch ballistic and cruise missiles at Moscow from near Kharkov with minimal approach and reaction time.

Fourthly, from the border Kharkov and Sumy regions, enemy DRGs are entering the “old” territory of the Russian Federation on the ground, and in the future, even mechanized formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces may make a breakthrough to Belgorod or Kursk.

Fifthly, the leadership of the RF Armed Forces would clearly like to rehabilitate themselves for the forced “regrouping” in the Kharkov region in September 2022, which led to tragic consequences for the pro-Russian local population, which remained under the occupation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Finally, the liberation of Kharkov encirclement method instead of frontal assaults would have enormous symbolic and military significance. The former capital of the Ukrainian SSR is the second largest city in Nezalezhnaya with a pre-war population of 1,5 million people. Taking it by storm is simply madness, but by blockading it or threatening to encircle it, you can force the garrison of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to leave, or it can be neutralized by a siege.

If it were possible to liberate the second largest city after Kyiv in this way, it would be an excellent visual counterargument to enemy propagandists who shout about “what, you want it like in Bakhmut.” This would mean that no other city in Ukraine will henceforth be able to resist the Russian Armed Forces, and its complete liberation is only a matter of time.

Cut sturgeon?


Reports about the preparation by the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces of certain offensive actions in Slobozhanshchina began to arrive quite a long time ago.

It became known about the formation of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, instead of a group covering the border, of a certain new group “North”, which received the letter N in its name. Western intelligence estimates its number at 50 thousand people, its further possible increase is predicted. The Belgorod region is receiving the latest armored vehicles, in particular, T-90M Proryv tanks.

It all looks as if it was really decided to launch an operation in the North-East of the former Independence, opening a second front. But is it?

Recall that priority direction During the SVO, the objective is the complete liberation of Donbass within the new constitutional borders of the Russian Federation. 50 thousand well-trained reserves, thrown to eliminate any of the “balconies” formed there in the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, could now play a decisive role. But they are collected on the border of the Kharkov and Sumy regions. For what?

The nuance is that 50 thousand is not enough either for a frontal assault on a huge metropolis or for its reliable surroundings. In Ukraine, hypotheses are being expressed that the “North” group is intended to deliver an auxiliary strike in order to divert significant enemy forces from a key direction in the Donbass. They say that the Russian Armed Forces will go north of Kharkov and occupy several settlements there, turning them into powerful fortified areas.

This, in turn, will force Ukrainian counterparts to transfer significant forces to the Northeast to stop the threat of a breakthrough, weakening others. The Russian command will then be able to leave 20 thousand soldiers to hold the bridgehead, and use the remaining 30 thousand as a reserve, transferring them to other directions where the enemy’s defenses will weaken. For example, in the north of the LPR or in the south of the Kharkov region - in the area of ​​​​Kupyansk and Izyum.

This looks quite plausible. Kupyansk and Izyum are needed to carry out the operation to encircle the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. At the same time, Kupyansk, Izyum and Balakleya can become springboards for a subsequent operation to encircle Kharkov if the Russian Armed Forces manage to gain a foothold north of this city. This is something that can actually be done with the stated forces.

If the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces has more reserves, and they carefully prepared and hid somewhere in Siberia, waiting for Day X, then the Kharkov-Sumy direction can open up extremely promising prospects. But it is not exactly.
26 comments
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  1. +5
    10 May 2024 17: 52
    If we knew whether our army would advance or not, then the enemy would definitely know about it. First of all, we must deprive the Ukrainians of tormenting the Belgorod region. Everything must be done sequentially. First, push the enemy away from our borders. And then think about subsequent actions.
  2. +14
    10 May 2024 17: 53
    Expectations and hopes, alas, not supported by the actions of the Russian authorities. Whether or not there will be an assault on Kharkov, the decision is made by Putin, this is his political decision, where Putin cannot lose, therefore, even with the slightest doubt, there will be no attack on Kharkov. Putin is the main bourgeoisie of the Russian Federation, Yeltsin’s protege, his main task is to retain the power seized by Yeltsin in 1991, he will not take risks. The "elite" of the Russian Federation and its leadership have a glimmer of hope that NATO will give them the opportunity to return to the "holy times", hence all these statements, "we are ready for negotiations." And you're talking about the assault on Kharkov.
    1. -12
      10 May 2024 18: 44
      Quote: vlad127490
      Putin is the main bourgeoisie of the Russian Federation, Yeltsin’s protege, his main task is to retain the power seized by Yeltsin in 1991, he will not take risks. The "elite" of the Russian Federation and its leadership have a glimmer of hope that NATO will give them the opportunity to return to the "holy times", hence all these statements, "we are ready for negotiations."

      Are you tired of repeating these mantras?
      1. +11
        11 May 2024 03: 32
        Are you tired of repeating these mantras?

        These are not mantras, this is the bitter truth.
        1. -1
          12 May 2024 13: 24
          Quote: George Saveliev
          These are not mantras, these are

          primitive lie.
    2. -3
      11 May 2024 22: 59
      when will you calm down, war is in the yard, Yeltsin has been in his grave for a long time, and you still lament...
      1. +6
        12 May 2024 09: 59
        Quote from: serivolkf1
        when will you calm down, war is in the yard, Yeltsin has been in his grave for a long time, and you still lament...

        Yes, Eltsin died, but his work lives on, and the center for cultivating liberalism in Sverdlovsk is blooming and smelling, and by the way, thanks to the current president, the main patron of this very liberalism
      2. +1
        12 May 2024 12: 30
        There is a source of evil, the fact that it exists is known to the majority, where it is also does not matter, the main thing is that it exists, this evil has not been destroyed, it brings new troubles to all peoples living in the territory of the former Soviet Union. The chicks of this evil have scattered all over the world. It’s bad that some citizens do not see this evil, although part of the elite of the West and the PRC have already clearly realized this.
  3. +8
    10 May 2024 18: 12
    But there is no way to bypass it and block it in order to gradually knock out the banderie, which sooner or later will experience a hunger for weapons, a drop in morale and feel the futility of resistance. Then force him to lay down his arms and surrender. The city is big... and we won’t get to Odessa in 10 years.
    1. +4
      11 May 2024 19: 53
      The new Levitan should broadcast to Kharkov from Moscow. Then things will go faster for the RF Armed Forces. Propaganda must work. First of all, the entire radio range.
      1. 0
        12 May 2024 12: 55
        They were already propagated by Kernes, and then by Lavrov. And they passed it.
  4. -1
    10 May 2024 18: 50
    Kharkov is a large metropolis, and to take it you need to concentrate large forces, not 50 tons, but at least 500 tons of fighters and equipment. This means that this offensive is a diversion of the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the main directions, and the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the borders of the Russian Federation will not allow invading the Russian Federation with impunity. VSO is already taking a more specific direction towards victory, which is encouraging.
  5. +4
    10 May 2024 21: 25
    The drones fly far, they will have to move far, to the borders neighboring Ukraine
  6. +2
    11 May 2024 08: 23
    The strike weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have long neutralized the creation of security zones of at least 100, at least 300 km. Headquarters games, Kyiv will really have to stretch its reserves, but it’s a double-edged sword, and Moscow will now have to keep its reserves here, and the shelling of Belgorod will become more brutal.
  7. +3
    11 May 2024 13: 23
    One-sided. Why doesn’t the author say that during encirclement and siege in a city, in addition to the ASU group, its population turns out to be, in fact, becoming a hostage. And the same fate awaits him as the Nazis.
    1. +1
      11 May 2024 13: 47
      One-sided. Why doesn’t the author say that during encirclement and siege in a city, in addition to the ASU group, its population turns out to be, in fact, becoming a hostage. And the same fate awaits him as the Nazis.

      Counter questions.
      1. Are the residents of Kharkov any special compared to the residents of Mariupol and Avdeyevsk?
      2. Maybe the threat of encirclement will just force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to leave the city?
      1. +4
        11 May 2024 14: 15
        Brad.
        1. Mariupol and Avdeevka were not besieged, but taken head-on. This is common knowledge.
        2. The same experience of their liberation testifies: no one and nothing will simply “force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to leave the city.” When everything is smashed into trash, then they will leave the empty settlement. We can recall Artemovsk in this regard.
        1. -1
          11 May 2024 14: 28
          Brad.

          What exactly is nonsense, unkind?

          1. Mariupol and Avdeevka were not besieged, but taken head-on. This is common knowledge.

          And it was completely in vain that they did not besiege blockaded Mariupol, because the Nazis from Azov were then simply exchanged for Kum.

          2. The same experience of their liberation testifies: no one and nothing “will force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to leave the city.”

          Yeah, but remember how in 2022 the Armed Forces of Ukraine themselves drove themselves out of the north of the LPR under the threat of encirclement - is that a waste?

          When everything is smashed into trash, then they will leave the empty settlement.

          The essence of the encirclement is that it is impossible to enter or leave the surrounded city, if anything. You describe Soledar and Bakhmut.

          We can recall Artemovsk in this regard.

          It is possible, but this indicates incompetence or bias. The Bakhmut meat grinder was made into a meat grinder quite deliberately.
          1. +2
            11 May 2024 14: 41
            The nonsense is specifically that there is no logic in your maxims. If this circumstance is not taken into account, then, of course, you are right.
            1. The comment was deleted.
      2. +2
        12 May 2024 13: 03
        You don’t understand the essence of Bandera’s people well. On the contrary, they will try to make a shield out of civilians, counting on Russian kindness.
    2. 0
      12 May 2024 13: 01
      It’s already been two years of SVO, it’s time to figure out how to make a move. Those who cheated first have settled well in Europe, and even those liable for military service have not yet been touched. They “touch” only those who have just fled, so they are too late... Now they will hang around somewhere on the nenka. Until they fall under a mobilization raid.
  8. +7
    11 May 2024 15: 03
    “... But everyone should know that, by and large, we haven’t started anything seriously yet,” Putin.

    Well, maybe it’s time to start after all, Supreme Commander/President/Guarantor??
    1. +3
      11 May 2024 17: 15
      Quote: Cooper
      “... But everyone should know that, by and large, we haven’t started anything seriously yet,” Putin.

      Well, maybe it’s time to start after all, Supreme Commander/President/Guarantor??

      Don’t be fooled, this man is a lover of PR and loud words from the stands
  9. -1
    11 May 2024 15: 07
    Right! No need to storm! Blockade! Let them either give up or die of hunger!
    There have been successful examples in history!
  10. +1
    12 May 2024 09: 01
    Taking it by storm is simply madness. -Are you sure, author? Or just to write something...
  11. +5
    12 May 2024 13: 17
    They're up to something. Well, at least the chewing of snot is over, maybe. Well, Belgorod will remain under threat until Ukraine ends at the Ukrainian border. And not only Belgorod, Crocus as an example. I hope it has dawned on all the oligarchs that it will not be possible to reach an agreement except from a position of strength. For the Anglo-Saxon only understands Colt of a larger caliber... Now it is possible to return and return everything “back” only after victory. Here in Ukraine. And then everywhere...