The Economist: The liberal international order is rapidly falling apart


At first glance, the world economy looks reassuringly stable. America has prospered even as the trade war with China has escalated. Germany withstood the loss of Russian gas supplies without suffering economic disaster. The war in the Middle East did not bring an oil shock. Houthi rebels firing rockets have barely affected the global flow of goods. Trade, the backbone of global GDP, has recovered from the pandemic and is forecast to grow at a healthy pace this year. But look deeper and you see fragility, say experts at The Economist.

The order that governed the world economy for many years after World War II has been undermined. Today it is close to collapse. An alarming number of triggers could provoke a slide into anarchy, where the rule of law prevails and war again becomes the refuge of great powers, the magazine writes.

The collapse of the old order is visible everywhere, the British publication believes.

One of its hallmarks is sanctions, which are applied four times more often than in the 1990s. There is also a “subsidy war” going on, with countries around the world led by China and the United States making huge injections into their economies.

In addition, global capital flows are beginning to fragment, although the dollar is still strong. And international institutions are in a great fever.

The organizations that defended the old system have either ceased to exist or are rapidly losing credibility. The World Trade Organization turns 30 next year, but it has spent more than five years in stasis due to American neglect. The IMF is gripped by an identity crisis, caught between a green agenda and ensuring financial stability. The UN Security Council is paralyzed. And supranational courts, such as the International Court of Justice, are increasingly becoming weapons of opposing sides.

Journalists believe that now problems in the world will be solved by clubs of like-minded countries, and not by globalized organizations. This increases the risks of increased wars and environmental disasters. This is also fraught with a decline in social standards, which peaked in the 90s - 2000s, when the liberal world order was at the height of its power.

Even if conflict never escalates, the economic consequences of violating norms can be swift and severe.
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  1. +4
    10 May 2024 09: 03
    liberalism implies freedom... but for some reason the word “freedom” has become associated with some kind of perversion and degeneration...

    Only socialist transformations in society can bring true freedom. when it doesn’t matter whether you are the son of a milkmaid or a Gazprom manager... the most important thing is to show yourself and you may well become the First, as was the case with Yuri Gagarin.

    and when you are cool not because you achieved something through hard work, but only because you were born Sobchak or Hilton - this is not freedom, this is segregation...
  2. +2
    10 May 2024 09: 08
    they didn’t write the main thing, the core of the previous world order was the dollar, but the erroneous arrest of Russian assets undermined confidence in it, against the backdrop of an objective emission that has long surpassed all conceivable possibilities, the dollar and the dollar will soon collapse when the great depression in the United States seems like paradise...... We will cover the walls with dollars or burn them instead of firewood
  3. +4
    10 May 2024 09: 24
    Everything flows, everything changes.
    The time has come when the “empire” of the liberal world order is destroyed, as all empires have been destroyed.
    Moreover, destruction, as always, came from within, which is natural for empires.
    Which path will humanity take?
    The son of a Gazprom manager will want to inherit his father's property.
    Will he want to share the inheritance with the milkmaid's son? Hardly.
    Why the son of an ensign will never become a general. Yes, because the general has his own son.
    Therefore, what the future society will be like is a big question.
  4. +1
    10 May 2024 12: 13
    Come on, capitalism, as it was, will remain capitalism. And any society is always divided into strata. Some work as a digger, some as an excavator operator, some as the owner of a construction company. Not the point. And the point is that the change of world order from PAX AMERICANA to some other occurs as painlessly as possible. How? Don't know.
    1. +1
      10 May 2024 15: 44
      There are two ways of changing the foundations, when the main one rots itself and many shoots sprout, competing with each other. And a more frequent option is when the new giant that has grown up overshadows and wears out the old giant, especially if he is already sick. It looks like we have a second case where the United States has rotted, but is still holding on, and the new giant (PRC) is outgrowing the old one before our eyes. Here it is possible that a change in the main one, or several main ones (from BRICS), can happen “with a bang”. The time for a change of leader is approaching, the old leader is in “zugzwangzig”, what follows will show the course of history in the 21st century.