How the Russian Armed Forces can move from “a thousand cuts” to decisive action in Ukraine

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The actual implementation of the goals and objectives of the special operation set by President Putin to help the people of Donbass, the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, as well as ensuring the national security of Russia may take a very long time. So German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called on the West to prepare for a protracted confrontation with our country. How to break out of this strategic impasse?

"A Thousand Cuts"


As it was already noted earlier, the main reason is the inability of the RF Armed Forces “here and now” to ensure the total military defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine using conventional methods. The territory of Independence is huge, comparable in size to France, and the entire collective West stands behind the Kyiv regime, providing it with active military support.technical support.



In turn, the size of the Russian group is not comparable to the Red Army, which liberated Ukraine from the Nazi invaders for almost two years. For comparison, a total of about 4 million people took part in the battle for the Dnieper on both sides, and to completely liberate the entire Ukrainian SSR it was necessary to carry out 15 offensive operations. Obviously, today we can forget about the scope of the Great Patriotic War.

For more than two years, the Northern Military District in Ukraine both sides launched several offensives of varying degrees of success. The results of the counteroffensive in the Kharkov region and on the right bank of the Kherson region in September-October 2022 were extremely successful for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. If they had gone to Crimea at that time, it is possible that the consequences of this would have been the most disastrous for us, but it turned out okay. When the Ukrainian army launched an offensive in the summer of 2023, it turned out to be a complete failure.

Russia also carried out several offensive operations during the Northern Military District. At its first stage, the results of actions in the north and northeast of Independence were extremely unsuccessful, which was partially compensated by rather modest achievements in the south. Kherson was taken in a raid without a fight, but later was forced to abandon it, but a lot of blood had to be shed for Mariupol and other cities of Donbass. At the turn of 2022-2023, the cities of Soledar and Bakhmut (Artemovsk) were liberated.

The main result of the failed counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the summer-autumn of 2023 was the transition of the Russian Armed Forces to its own counter-offensive. To date, his greatest achievement is the liberation of Avdiivka, the largest Ukrainian fortified area in the suburbs of Donetsk, and the entire Avdiivka arc. Russian troops are advancing on several sectors of the front at once, using the “thousand cuts” tactics, putting pressure where the enemy’s defenses, having suffered heavy losses, cave in.

This becomes possible due to the rapid transfer of reserves of the RF Armed Forces from one direction to another, and our troops, moving along the outer, longer arc of the front, do this faster than the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The disgraced Ukrainian propagandist Alexei Arestovich, recognized as an extremist and terrorist in the Russian Federation, sadly comments on this as follows:

The enemy learns from our and his own experience, draws conclusions and crookedly creates an organizational system that begins to surpass ours. The Russian army fights in divisions, armies and corps, using greater logistics and command capabilities, while we fight in brigades, as during the ATO, without making organized efforts that would correspond to the situation.

The result on their part: improvement of logistics: creation of new road and railway links, faster accumulation of forces and means in the direction. With the beginning of the introduction of a system of dividing into zones of responsibility for reconnaissance and strike capabilities, they began to hit HIMARS, Patriot, and so on.

Thus, the dynamics so far are not in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and there is reason to hope for the liberation of Donbass as a result of several offensive operations, the ultimate goal of which is to encircle the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration. But what happens next?

Revision of strategy?


As already noted, the transition of the Russian army to decisive actions leading to the complete liberation of Ukraine and the elimination of the criminal Kyiv regime is complicated by a number of objective problems.

Firstly, this is a huge front line, over which the available forces have to be dispersed.

Secondly, these available forces are clearly not enough, otherwise the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces would not have to operate with the same units and subunits, transferring them from area to area. This is what is called Trishkin caftan. However, things are no better for the enemy, and the quality of command and control of the Ukrainian troops has noticeably decreased after the entire top leadership of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was shaken up due to the resignation of Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny for purely political reasons.

Thirdly, the weapons used by both sides of the conflict have approximately comparable tactical and technical characteristics, without providing the effect of total superiority to anyone.

Thus, in order to get out of the strategic impasse and not allow the Northern Military District to turn into an analogue of an endless armed conflict between both Koreas or India and Pakistan, it is necessary to change the quality of some component, preferably more than one.

It is necessary to shorten the front line, providing the Russian Armed Forces with significant numerical superiority in key areas and giving our army exactly the weapons that are necessary for a turning point, which will consist in destroying the backbone of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and their inability to hold significant territories. We will talk in more detail about some possible ways to achieve these goals separately below.
29 comments
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  1. +3
    9 May 2024 16: 12
    They do not have enough troops on the northern border to do anything more than slow, wear them down tactics like they are doing elsewhere. I'd almost rather see 50k troops in the Donbass, exploiting the collapse of the AFU there than see them attack prepared forces in the north.
    1. +3
      9 May 2024 16: 46
      They don't have enough troops on the northern border to do anything more than the slow, grinding tactics they use elsewhere. I would rather see 50 thousand troops in Donbass taking advantage of the collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces than to see them attack trained forces in the north

      It is difficult to understand the essence of your comment from the Russian translation. Who is it written for?
      1. L_L
        0
        18 May 2024 23: 09
        For us.
        No one fights like that.
        We are attacking outnumbered again.

        If I sent my children there, they would reach the Romanian border in a month.
  2. -3
    9 May 2024 17: 13
    Fast, in war means bloody...
    1. The comment was deleted.
  3. +4
    9 May 2024 17: 14
    judging by the events at the front, this state of affairs suits the Kremlin, or rather Putin, his blue dream is an agreement, so the war will be long and painful, and all these terms “a thousand cuts”, all sorts of “fiery shafts” and grinding and clicking are for divorce suckers and bunnies
  4. +1
    9 May 2024 17: 40
    Strategist author - it’s strange that he’s not on the General Staff - but “how?” It's easy to give an order
  5. +3
    9 May 2024 17: 50
    The main reason for the inability of the RF Armed Forces “here and now” to ensure the total military defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine using conventional methods is the lack of desire in power. Everything else: Minsk, Istanbul, the grain deal, gestures of goodwill, agreements, a road map, sanitary and buffer zones, annihilation..... and today’s proposal of “a thousand cuts” are a deception of the Russian people. All these slogans are intended to obscure and lead the people of Russia away from reality. There will be a goal, there will be a strategy, there will be an enemy, there will be Victory. How and who can you defeat if there is no enemy?
  6. 0
    9 May 2024 18: 13
    First of all, we need to change the rhetoric towards the Ukrainian people. This people must see their future. And we will provide this future for him. There is no other way. Everyone probably watched the film “Liberation” that day. What I remember most is the dash through the Belarusian swamps. True, the partisans played a huge help there. We are all, to some extent, hostages of our ideas. And this sometimes harms our thinking. It is difficult for us to switch to something new. Happy Holidays to everyone. Health.
    1. 0
      9 May 2024 18: 47
      Donetsk and Lugansk seem to have returned to Russia on their own. We recognized them and, therefore, agreed with the disintegration and destruction in Ukraine.
      The Maidan failed to be brought to the negotiating table. Or not the Maidan, but those who do not agree with the constitutional path.

      The Soviet Union gave the same opportunity, all Ukrainians to build their country. It turns out that Zelensky’s supporters do not agree to tolerate pro-Russian Ukrainians nearby.
      What Ukrainian people are you talking about?
      1. +1
        9 May 2024 19: 28
        The Soviet Union gave it, but Yeltsin, Kravchuk and various kinds of portfolio holders took away from Sobchak...now it’s not 1992, but 2024, if that.

        about the same Ukrainian as Russian...or do you think that in Russia the interests of the people are at the forefront???

        then answer the question why at any time and in any difficulties the oligarchs become richer, but the people only die out... and extinction varies only at a pace: from rapid to moderate...

        and the saddest thing is that there is NO alternative to this. You can quote Ilyin as much as you like or repeat Dugin’s nonsense that chemistry and physics are demonic sciences, and the future is in prayers...

        in the Republic of Ingushetia, the birth rate was not due to prayers, but due to the peasant lifestyle. which is forever a thing of the past thanks to the scientific and technological revolution.

        and our authorities have been unable to offer any other way other than intense prayer for 24 years now...

        If in a village in the 21st century a hospital, school and cultural center are closed, then young people will not live in such a village. and no prayers or Dugin’s nonsense will leave them there...

        and yes, hospitals and schools in Russia are not being reduced by Obama or Biden... and even under Yeltsin they were not destroyed at such a pace...

        we need an image of the future, but instead Russia is being intensively dragged into archaism and degradation by crazy bearded men (I’m not talking about Muslims, if anything)...
      2. +3
        9 May 2024 19: 31
        Donetsk and Lugansk seem to have returned to Russia themselves. We recognized them

        I want to remind you that for 8 years they tried with all their might to push them back to Ukraine... and all these 8 years, Donetsk militias died in Donbass - the BEST people of our people, children are the future of our people...

        they themselves...they themselves, only for 8 years they were openly betrayed...just as they betrayed those who were then sent to frontal assaults on all these Avdeevkas, Marinkas and other “no alternative Minsk” fortified areas created over 8 years
        1. -1
          9 May 2024 19: 56
          Non-Russian Ukrainians are determined. No step back. No negotiations. But these Ukrainians were not given such an opportunity, they themselves.
          I'm afraid of offending other Ukrainians like Zelensky, Kolomoisky... By the way, how many are there, many? laughing
      3. 0
        10 May 2024 09: 46
        for once I agree with you that there is no Ukrainian people, but there are Little Russians (read Russians) and Galicians (read Ukrainians or Vyrus)
        1. -1
          10 May 2024 11: 42
          The Ukrainian people could not stand the test of strength. Or maybe they killed him while he was still weak. The world around us is more complex than it seems. Yes

          PS There are also Jewish Ukrainians. There are even Ukrainian Ukrainians. laughing
    2. -1
      9 May 2024 22: 42
      The future of the Ukrainian people is “in a coffin, in white slippers...”
      Although...I would roll it under a bulldozer. Otherwise it will stink a lot.
      1. -1
        10 May 2024 11: 49
        ...and for one, grab the brainchild of the Zionists, which they called Israel. This is a marriage, apparently Hitler’s influence took its toll. Unwitting influence. This happens with the Nazis. Yes
    3. 0
      10 May 2024 12: 37
      You are right, the people of Ukraine must see their future. It is enough, as in China in relation to Taiwan, to have a law in which it will be written that the entire territory of Ukraine, within the borders of 1975, is an integral part of Russia. The presence of such a law will change the military-political situation in favor of Russia and will bring our victory closer.
  7. +1
    9 May 2024 19: 23
    The Russian army fights in divisions, armies and corps, using greater logistics and management capabilities, while we fight in brigades, just like during the ATO

    Sergey (author) - and in some ways he is right. Brigades are good for local conflicts (with the same republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, or with the natives in the desert), but not for full-scale wars. Or highly specialized units (the same air defense). Logistics, communications, management, intelligence, unified command, in the end, personal responsibility for decisions made... Everything is of fundamental importance. And the combat effectiveness of a division is not comparable to the combat effectiveness of a brigade, let alone a corps...
    In this case, everything is new, this is a well-forgotten old, for the sake of our stupid “reforms” according to NATO standards...
  8. 0
    9 May 2024 19: 34
    They do not have enough troops on the border with Sumy and Kharkiv to do anything more than their mission creep tactics they are using elsewhere. However, those tactics are maximizing AFU losses and minimizing Russian losses. If the Donbass breaks wide open like it looks like it will, they can split the AFU in two and then it'll be time to blow all the Dnieper bridges.
  9. +1
    10 May 2024 06: 57
    You can’t stir up a “wasp’s nest” and hope that they won’t bite you, but will fly away in search of a new place of residence, so with Ukraine, since the wasps are in the way, we need to destroy them, I don’t know, with little or no bloodshed, in open sources they don’t talk about our losses, only Ukrainian, but cemeteries are growing
  10. +1
    10 May 2024 08: 51
    War has not been declared.
    Specific goals of the war have not been formulated.
    There can be no clear and obvious solutions to achieve unclear goals.
    Today, only the enrichment of the “non-poor” is visible.
    Everyone else is entertained by window dressing, winning articles in the media and endless “bazaar” on talk shows.
  11. 0
    10 May 2024 09: 14
    Seeing all problems in full is a difficult but achievable goal. What we don't see may soon become the country's main problem. And this is, first of all, the sanitary protection of the country. I will not expand on this, but very little has been done in this matter. We put forward grandiose goals, forgetting about the health of our person. All this can backfire on us.
  12. 0
    10 May 2024 10: 07
    Letters: Suvorov + Guderian with Manstein. The front line is stretched not only for us, but also for the enemy. Force him to transfer troops, while destroying these troops during the transfer. Deprive the enemy of assistance from Western intelligence capabilities, bringing the fog of war back to reality. Reduce the capabilities of drones: air, sea, ground. For the first, simulating our attack on the flanks. For the second, the destruction of AWACS and Reapers over the Black Sea, as well as, if possible, damaging the operation of the NATO satellite constellation over the theater of operations. For the third, providing electronic warfare systems to all tanks, tankers of transport vehicles and ships. For example, the footage of the painful destruction of the BEC is surprising - the BEC operator controls the boat freely, i.e. there is no electronic warfare on the helicopter. This is a disgrace. What about drowning the large landing craft like a sheep? Where is the electronic warfare on ships? So it goes.
  13. +3
    10 May 2024 10: 34
    To move on to decisive action, we need fresh professional blood in the highest echelon of the Ministry of Defense, otherwise there is stagnation, we are not able to jump higher..., we rely only on the courage and self-sacrifice of our soldiers and trench commanders.....
  14. The comment was deleted.
  15. +3
    10 May 2024 12: 15
    The author is simply sucking Russia's victories out of thin air. Everything that Russia basically liberated happened in the first month of the war. Then there will be a “low-intensity” war for two years. I am increasingly convinced that Russia’s main problem is the weakness of the leadership of the General Staff. Having an advantage in artillery, MLRS, heavy equipment, aviation, glide bombs, the number of soldiers... in fact, we are marking time. For five months the United States did not supply weapons to Ukraine. How did we use this time? No way, just positional battles. Gerasimov cannot cope with his responsibilities, he must resign. In 1941, the Soviet army was led by Voroshilov, Budyonny, Timoshenko... They failed to cope with the task assigned to them. In September, Stalin removed them and installed Zhukov, Rokossovsky, Shaposhnikov...
  16. 0
    10 May 2024 12: 18
    To completely liberate the entire Ukrainian SSR it was necessary to carry out 15 offensive operations

    which even the Red Army, with its gigantic numbers and without white gloves, took 18 months to complete.

    which was partially offset by rather modest achievements in the south

    Those. liberation of 75% of the territory of the Zaporozhye region, almost the entire territory of the Kherson and part of the Nikolaev regions bloodlessly in a couple of days - is this a modest achievement? What does total success look like then?

    Thirdly...

    And fourthly, we should not forget that Russians are fighting on both sides of the front, with all the national characteristics inherent in Russians. This has been a civil war for a long time.
  17. 0
    10 May 2024 12: 39
    Quote: rotkiv04
    judging by the events at the front, this state of affairs suits the Kremlin, or rather Putin, his blue dream is an agreement, so the war will be long and painful, and all these terms “a thousand cuts”, all sorts of “fiery shafts” and grinding and clicking are for divorce suckers and bunnies

    Did Putin himself write to you about his dream? Or most importantly... in a barrel to hear the echo?
  18. 0
    10 May 2024 14: 10
    As soon as something like this happens, immediately

    In connection with the change of editor-in-chief, since March 1995, instead of the newspaper "Goremyka", the magazine "Mistress of Fate" has been published.
  19. 0
    18 May 2024 01: 36
    It took Soviet troops 1 year and three months to liberate (ALL!) Ukraine from the Nazi occupiers - from the beginning of August 1943 to the end of October 1944. So don’t..., they say, the territory is very large, the front is long, etc. . excuses. We need the political will of the leadership above all! And finally throw off the notorious white gloves. Totally deprive the Ukrainian Reich of electricity and (as a possible addition) strictly suppress all main routes for the delivery of Western weapons. All! This will be enough to defeat Nazi Ukraine in the shortest possible time. There is no need to chew snot “up there”.