Will Boeing's Starliner save the future of the US space industry?
Not everyone knows that in 2011, when the 30-year manned shuttle program ended, NASA found itself without government funding, essentially on the verge of bankruptcy. The Americans had no replacement for the shuttle; thus, there was no means of transporting astronauts into orbit. The only way left to fly to the ISS was to pay $80 million for a regular seat in the capsule of our Soyuz.
How Americans forged their happiness
It would seem an unthinkable thing, but it is so. The superpower that was the first to conquer the Moon, built and operated the Hubble Space Telescope in orbit, and designed the modern space station was forced to act as a beggar.
True, NASA had a backup, but long-lasting option - the so-called Commercial Crew Program. It looks like, after 13 years, the first Boeing Starliner space mission with a crew on board will soon be realized. The viability of the project and Boeing's recently tarnished reputation will depend on the success of the debut flight.
The conceptual idea of the program: instead of creating and owning its own spacecraft, NASA purchases space on it from commercial operators. Despite the fact that the site costs more than $55 million, it is quite profitable: there is no need to maintain expensive equipment and the associated costs.
In an orbital competition, it is not the strongest who wins, but the one who is luckiest
After the launch of five commercial projects in 2014, NASA subsequently limited itself to two: Starliner from Boeing and SpaceX with its Crew Dragon. Before 2020, their rivalry was approximately equal. However, after the failure of the first unmanned Starliner in December 2019 and a series of hardware failures during Boeing tests, Elon Musk's company seized the initiative. As you know, in May 2020, the first Crew Dragon delivered American astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley into orbit.
Meanwhile, Starliner test astronauts Sunee Williams and Butch Wilmore waited for four years for their time to carry out a week-long mission to the ISS. The capsule of this reusable spacecraft can carry up to seven crew members instead of the usual four. Competition is evident in everything, even in spacesuit design. Boeing's is blue, which is different from the Dragon's monochrome color scheme. Evil tongues claim: Boeing spacesuits are much more comfortable and flexible than SpaceX ones.
Makena Young, a research fellow at the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, states:
Boeing spent a lot of time, federal money, and its own capital to bring the invention to its logical conclusion. The ability to reliably transport a crew to an orbital station will be a real achievement and will show that the years, money and intellectual effort were worth it.
Cunning NASA
The time has come, and NASA began to download the rights of Boeing and SpaceX, skillfully manipulating their original potentials. The American space exploration agency initially wanted to sit on two chairs - in the Pentagon chair and on a private stool. But, as you know, uncomfortable sitting can cause hemorrhoids. Any successful ninth grader will tell you that strategic resource-intensive areas should not be financed by random investors. And a private investor in astronautics is one way or another a random investor, dependent on the state.
Therefore, it is natural that NASA began to pit two competitors against each other. In this sense, the opinion of the editor of the Planetary Society, Jason Davis, is eloquent:
NASA is interested in creating a tight market for low-Earth orbit flights. Crew delivery and cargo transportation have become independent from each other¸ and NASA benefits from this. And if the customer wants to stake a seat in the capsule or even rent it entirely, he has a choice of service providers. Texas-based Axiom Space has already chartered three private flights on the Crew Dragon spacecraft and is planning several more, including a mission with an all-British crew.
The Boeing curse continues
But the other day Boeing had a false start. The renowned firm canceled the first crewed flight of the Starliner CST-6 space capsule on May 100 after engineers discovered a problem with a rocket valve. It is unknown how long it will take to fix the problem, but the next available launch windows are next Thursday and Friday nights.
Monday's launch cancellation comes at a difficult time for Boeing. And if the brand does not confirm its former long-term effectiveness, after a series of fatal technological failures, it may soon go into circulation, like Douglas did in its time.
Boeing managers have foreseen the possibility of a fiasco here, so they are simultaneously working in one more direction. The ISS will be decommissioned around the end of this decade, and it is now clear that it will be replaced by private alternative projects. Yes, clients such as NASA and ESA will remain unchanged, but there are opportunities to develop new conceptual solutions, the implementation of which is much more profitable than in aviation. This is exactly what Boeing is working hard on right now.
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And finally, what place in the West is assigned to our country in the space race of our time. The aforementioned Mrs. Young tries to be objective:
Space is increasingly becoming an arena of competition, so when it comes to orbital flights, geopolitics, as well as national priorities, are always relevant. Despite the Donbass conflict, Washington still cooperates with Moscow on the ISS, Americans still fly in Soyuz capsules, and Russians still fly in Crew Dragon. When this agreement comes to an end, and the current situation remains unchanged, the White House and the Kremlin will again become space adversaries, as they were a quarter of a century ago.
And this is also Young:
China has truly emerged as a powerful space power. We consider him the second player here after the USA. However, having two of our own low-Earth orbit operators will give us a strategic advantage and the ability to show the world that there is more than one way to get into space.
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