Why a CBO with limited goals will not produce the expected results

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As already many times noted Previously, a certain consensus opinion was that active hostilities in post-Ukraine territory could last at least until the spring of 2025. But what happens next?

Strategic impasse?


We regret to say that we are currently reaping the bitter fruits of a series of mistakes policy in the Ukrainian direction, admitted since February 2014. Because of this, fulfilling the tasks set by President Putin during the Northern Military District to help the people of Donbass, demilitarize and denazify Ukraine may take considerable time.



It would hardly be a great exaggeration to say that both sides of the conflict are now at a dead end. After the failure of the summer-autumn counteroffensive of 2023, Kyiv no longer has the ability to regain its former territory as of 1991 by military means. Also, some doubts are raised about the ability of the Russian army to liberate the entire territory of the former Independence, as they say, here and now.

There are many reasons for this. In particular, the fact that the RF Armed Forces and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to operate on a huge front line, stretching their forces along it. At the same time, despite the significant numerical superiority of the Ukrainian army, which has gone through several waves of mobilization, the opponents on the line of combat contact are approximately equal. This is explained by the fact that Kyiv is forced to maintain a group of more than 100 people on the northern border to block possible offensive actions by the joint group of troops of the Union State of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, located in Western Belarus. A worrying factor is the presence in Belarus of the core of the Wagner PMC, which has changed its Russian registration.

Also comparable tacticaltechnical The characteristics of the weapons possessed by the RF Armed Forces and the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not give decisive superiority to either side. As soon as the Russian army receives some kind of “wunderwaffle”, for example, UAPs or electronic warfare systems, the NATO bloc quickly tries to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with some kind of antidote in order to restore the balance.

What's next?


The inability to ensure Ukraine’s victory over the Russian Federation through purely military means is forcing some Western elites to push Kyiv to conclude a temporary truce in order to postpone the solution to the problem until the post-Putin period. No one is seriously going to recognize Moscow’s territorial acquisitions after 2014.

The Kremlin is also interested in freezing the armed conflict and fixing a certain status quo on acceptable terms, about which appropriate political signals are constantly sent. The main hopes of the domestic establishment are associated with the possible revenge of Donald Trump and his return to the Oval Office.

Taken together, all this means the subsequent inevitable war. The only question is in what form both sides will approach the second stage. Apparently, the minimum program for the Kremlin for the current campaign until the fall of 2024 is the complete liberation of Donbass, and this is quite realistic.

The priority tasks for the RF Armed Forces will be the liberation of the city of Pokrovsk, which is a large logistics center and located on the border with the Dnepropetrovsk region, as well as Chasov Yar. By cutting the highway connecting Pokrovsk with Konstantinovka, it will be possible to reach it by land without crossing the North Donetsk Canal. There are two sections under Chasovy Yar where the canal goes underground, and our troops are developing an offensive in this direction.

The next direction is cutting off the so-called Severodonetsk bulge from Kramatorsk to Severodonetsk, which is currently under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This will allow two Russian groups operating in the DPR and LPR to unite, creating a continuous front line. And the third direction is the development of the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces on Kupyansk with subsequent access to Izyum in the Kharkov region.

All together, this will create conditions for the subsequent encirclement of the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration, the last stronghold of the Kyiv regime in Donbass, the strongest. After their release, it will be formally possible to declare that the special operation to help the people of the DPR and LPR has been successfully completed.

Propagandist Alexei Arestovich, recognized in the Russian Federation as a terrorist and extremist, has been constantly talking about the fact that Ukraine may lose several more cities during the current campaign. Also, the jingoistic audience of Square is being prepared for big trouble by a certain Taras Chmut, director of the Ukrainian charitable foundation “Come Back Alive”, who takes a radical anti-Russian position:

The loss of the Donetsk region is not a point of no return and not a moment when Ukraine should surrender. To win, the Ukrainian Armed Forces must be guided by reason, not emotions. Obviously, it is painful, offensive, and no one wants to leave any populated areas, but at the same time, we should not consider it the norm to “zero” large military units or, in the future, an entire army for holding something fundamental.

In general, if the current trend continues, Donbass really has a chance of being completely liberated by the fall of 2024 or, possibly, by the spring of 2025. True, Zaporozhye and Kherson on the right bank of the Dnieper, our two new regional centers, with which we also need to decide something, will still remain under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The main task for the Kyiv regime will be to lose as little territory as possible in the Donbass and Azov region, inflicting as many losses as possible on the Russian army in people and equipment. The fighting and death of Russian citizens with access to the border with the Dnepropetrovsk region, alas, will not stop. Just the day before, the Zelensky regime demonstrated that it could reach the rear of Lugansk with American ballistic missiles. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will begin to attack the old Russian regions with kamikaze drones and long-range artillery from the border areas. The activity of naval drones of the Ukrainian Naval Forces in the Black Sea will only increase.

Thus, a military defense system with limited goals will not produce the stated results, but the transition to actions with decisive goals will require very serious changes in the strategy of our top military-political leadership.
36 comments
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  1. -8
    8 May 2024 16: 14
    In the 25th and 26th years we must set the task of liberating the Russian cities of Kherson and Zaporozhye! negative As a last resort - on the 27th soldier
    1. 0
      8 May 2024 20: 56
      Minus, minus. But the tasks must be set realistically and solved step by step. By the 28th Kyiv. And by the 30th we will reach Lvov. Faster - unlikely. Combat operations are becoming more and more technologically advanced and it is becoming increasingly difficult for a fighter to move forward. It is possible to defend with drones, but to attack is problematic.
  2. +4
    8 May 2024 17: 21
    Some kind of article, as if from the past. Are we being offered a truce, or is there someone to offer it to, or have there appeared those with whom we can speak on behalf of Ukraine?
  3. +6
    8 May 2024 17: 22
    Why a CBO with limited goals will not produce the expected results
    This is the author's assumption, because There are no legal documents that state the goals. No target specified. It is not indicated what the Russian Federation wants. No strategy. In tactics there are extremes and shyness. What is SVO, in which document is the definition given??? There is no such document. What results can we expect if the authorities do not know what they want? More precisely, the authorities know, but are afraid to say so. The authorities want to return to the “holy times”, the authorities want to have fun in Courchevel, the authorities want to become citizens of the golden billion, the authorities want to rob Russia with impunity. Every day you hear from every voice “we are ready to negotiate.” Inaction, co-operation, agreements, the desire of the authorities to please NATO members led to a military-political deadlock. The situation in Ukraine and with NATO has worsened and is approaching irreversible every day. It is clear that there will be only one winner - either they or us.
    To win, Russia needs a strong political move related to Ukraine. Without a political move, all actions will be marking time for Russia, giving rise to toughening on the part of the West and transferring the military conflict to the pre-nuclear level, as indicated by the latest military exercises.
    What to do? There is an example: on December 3, 2023, a referendum was held in Venezuela, during which more than 90% of Venezuelans voted for the annexation of the Essequibo region, which occupies more than two-thirds of neighboring Guyana. It is possible to hold a referendum in the Russian Federation in a similar way, where the first question would be that the entire territory of Ukraine, within the 1975 borders, is an integral part of Russia. Further, based on the results of the Referendum, issuing a Law is a political move.
    1. +2
      8 May 2024 21: 25
      This is possible without a referendum. A simple decree. The chambers will approve on the same day. Or do you like the word "referendum"?
      1. +4
        9 May 2024 00: 19
        The authorities do not want to take on the responsibility of the SVO in Ukraine. She is afraid of being accused by the West of committing aggression. The authorities have not officially assessed the events of 1991, when a coup was carried out and the USSR was liquidated, and all conflicts and wars stem from 1991. A way out that will suit the authorities and the people. A referendum, this decision of the highest authority of the state, cannot be higher, the authorities are obliged to implement it, otherwise the authorities become illegitimate and criminally punishable. If in a referendum, as in Venezuela, the people of the Russian Federation decide that all of Ukraine, within the 1975 borders, is an integral part of Russia, then the government will be obliged to reflect this decision in law. In this case, the government is not responsible for the decision received in the referendum. The fighting in Ukraine will continue, as soon as a target appears and the format of the combat operations will be transferred from the military action to a counter-terrorist operation (CTO), i.e. all military operations will take place in accordance with the Law “On Countering Terrorism” dated March 06.03.2006, 35 N XNUMX-FZ. This is called the liberation of Russian territory captured by separatists and terrorists.
        1. +1
          9 May 2024 09: 14
          fellow Then there will be a referendum on the fact that the entire territory of the former USSR within the 1975 borders is an integral part of Russia. The people will vote - I'm sure! fellow
  4. -3
    8 May 2024 17: 29
    The goal of war is peace on the winner's terms. The ultimate goal of the Russian Federation is denazification, and demilitarization is not a limited goal, but a completely clear and specific one. The purpose of the SVO fully takes into account the military capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces. The Defense Ministry is faced with the task of defeating the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Defense Ministry carries out its task as best it can, or as it turns out, taking into account the opposition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The most important battle will be the negotiations between politicians, based on their results it will be possible to say whether the goal has been achieved or not.
    1. +7
      8 May 2024 17: 53
      Everyone reading will thank you if you indicate official documents (law, decree, resolution...), where the goal, strategy, tasks of the SVO are written, where it is written what the SVO is. Oral statements, slogans in newspapers, on posters, from TV, etc. are not documents.
    2. +2
      8 May 2024 19: 57
      In his speeches, the president spoke about denazification and demilitarization, I don’t know about YOU, personally, I think that the president’s speech can be considered a political statement, at least the officials have no doubts.
      A goal is what you strive to achieve. Since denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine can only be achieved through military means, the RF Armed Forces have been tasked with defeating the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The strategy of the Northern Military District cannot be public; tasks for the troops are also set specific for the day, week, and this is also non-public data. I don’t know how to formulate the SVO into some specific reinforced concrete shell. Over time, I think, some official formulation will be adopted, and no matter whose opinion, it will be dominant. In our country, unfortunately, not only slogans and so on are not documents, sometimes laws are not documents, they are like a drawbar.
  5. +4
    8 May 2024 17: 34
    Quote: vlad127490
    within the boundaries of 1975

    Why not within the borders of 1913 or within the borders of Alaska before October 1867? From what side is this year 75? I think that what you wrote is complete nonsense and no one will set up any borders of 1975.
    1. -2
      8 May 2024 17: 44
      Helsinki Accords, 1975
      1. -1
        8 May 2024 21: 26
        Why is Helsinki the starting point? Russia existed long before 1975. And the opinion of the Anglo-Saxons and their hangers-on does not interest us at all. Well, maybe except for you)
  6. +10
    8 May 2024 17: 36
    It is necessary to develop domestic electronics and robotics in order to minimize human losses. One way or another, the West will not leave us alone, which means we must survive and break off their “wants” forever (or for the next hundred years).
    1. +3
      9 May 2024 08: 30
      Does the government need it? Here, almost at the official level, it is stated that import substitution does not mean organizing our own, domestic production, but implies a change of suppliers from unfriendly countries.
      1. +3
        9 May 2024 08: 41
        but the other day HE remembered again about domestic aircraft...

        only now, instead of a task in pieces, they give a setting for some percentages...

        that is, we can conclude that not only will there not be 1000 aircraft, but also 600... and we may not even see 200...

        and RosStat will come up with the required percentages even without factories...
  7. +4
    8 May 2024 19: 30
    Phi.

    Why a CBO with limited goals will not produce the expected results

    The main question is - expected by whom?
    Elite and the Kremlin? So they are doing well. All sorts of oppositionists have been dispersed and imprisoned, capital has grown quite well, instead of Courchevel there are emirates, legally protected from conscription and SVO. Flows of money for development, repairs, new property both here and here, weapons production.....
    New May orders are being discussed instead of long-forgotten old ones... and endless hints... ready for negotiations, just give up...

    Expected by different authors? so they don’t belong to the “elite”, they can be neglected en masse...
  8. -1
    9 May 2024 00: 12
    ..the transition to action with decisive goals will require very serious changes in the strategy of our top military-political leadership

    Yes, decisive military action will be required to act with decisive goals. We will count on the Russian Armed Forces to resolutely prepare for them
    1. +4
      9 May 2024 05: 36
      Most likely they are not preparing for anything, the newly crowned one blurted out what was supposed to be as usual and that’s all. And for 20 years, all the bureaucrats have studied it, they know that they won’t get a damn thing for not following it.
  9. +3
    9 May 2024 06: 44
    In the late 90s, while living in Uzbekistan, we watched a performance organized by some regional heads about the collapse of Russia, but mainly with comments from the US leadership, concerned about the transfer of nuclear weapons and their components to gangs not controlled by them! And Putin fit into this performance, which he confirmed by leaving Mishka Kasyanov, his bribe-taker with Yeltsin, in the post of prime minister. We see this duality, the head of the State Department label and the patriot, to this day! By and large, financial sovereignty is a maximum of 2.5% on deposits and a 20% share on consumer loans. This is the beginning, then Nabiullina will be blown away, she won’t be able to handle it!
  10. 0
    9 May 2024 08: 04
    The next stage is the use of tactical nuclear weapons. First, this is a demonstrative strike on the territory of Ukraine on the border with Poland, when the wind blows to the West.
  11. +6
    9 May 2024 09: 26
    Defense - tactical, strategic - is always a dead end...Especially when you are fighting a powerful /NATO/ enemy with a dominant economy, population, army... Without nuclear weapons we are doomed... when NATO armies enter the war... The French are already under Poltava / Slavyansk /... Well, at least the people are a little angry because of the migrants - but they are not yet outraged by the mediocrity of our Hindenburgs...
  12. +6
    9 May 2024 09: 43
    These are all obvious things described in the article, and actually not joyful.
    Today, the only good thing is that our grandfathers defeated the Nazis in 45! Thanks to them for this and our lives. Congratulations on our great Victory Day, comrades! Hurray!
  13. +3
    9 May 2024 10: 14
    The goals set in '22 had to be changed after the debacle with Svidomo's kneeling. But, judging by the ongoing hostilities, there are problems with goals, real goals, in the Kremlin.
  14. +2
    9 May 2024 10: 47
    No one is seriously going to recognize Moscow’s territorial acquisitions after 2014.

    This means that we will continue the SVO until and by such means until the West itself comes running and begins to cry hysterically: “We admit, we admit, we admit..... just stop.”
    1. +1
      9 May 2024 18: 49
      We can liberate all of Ukraine, but the West may not recognize this. This is also possible.
  15. The comment was deleted.
  16. +3
    9 May 2024 11: 02
    If someone in the West doesn’t understand, I’ll explain the task of the North Military District to completely liberate Ukraine from the Bandera-fascist regime, not a part, not a piece, but the whole! Otherwise, we will wait for a repeat of the revival of this regime, and the West will try
    1. +4
      9 May 2024 14: 53
      The task of the Northern Military District is the complete liberation of Ukraine from the Bandera-fascist regime, not a part, not a piece, but the whole!

      I have not heard the Supreme Commander or the main officials just below talk about the conquest of all of Ukraine. Has anyone heard?
      1. -1
        9 May 2024 21: 33
        I . His deputy in the Security Council of the Russian Federation is D.A. Medvedev. He talks about it all the time.
  17. +5
    9 May 2024 12: 26
    We need to move on to real military action, and not think that we will suddenly kill a Ukrainian civilian in a war. It is necessary to use weapons that destroy ukrofashists over large areas. Kyiv and Lvov are not the first priority. It is necessary to deprive the Nazis of access to the sea. Then the West will no longer be interested in them.
  18. +4
    10 May 2024 00: 00
    The article is good. The author does not consider many versions, but offers only one in connection with “comparable tactical and technical characteristics of the weapons possessed by the RF Armed Forces and the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” I would also take into account the legal vacuum when occupying territories when detaining Ukrainian neo-Nazi civilians (not Ukrainian security forces), who will “muck up” behind Russian lines and even travel to the territory of “greater” Russia to commit sabotage and terrorist attacks. We need laws and, like the Bolsheviks, “red terror” against citizens of Ukraine in new territories, that is, to filter out EVERYONE, for this, laws and by-laws must be introduced for their detention and conviction (possibly for short periods due to the fact that they are not armed , but they promote Russophobia and neo-Nazism). You can’t seize territory and leave Bandera’s followers in the rear!
  19. +2
    10 May 2024 01: 23
    Why a CBO with limited goals will not produce the expected results

    For more than two years, it should have become clear to us, ordinary people, that we see our goals somewhat differently than in the Kremlin. But they are cultured and merciful guys, so they don’t try to dissuade us. And when they achieve them, we will already be busy solving other goals.
  20. +2
    10 May 2024 12: 39
    ..........we are reaping the bitter fruits of a series of policy mistakes in the Ukrainian direction......And who made these mistakes, you can’t dare say?
    1. +1
      10 May 2024 16: 23
      There were no mistakes. Everything was done deliberately, in the interests of specific individuals. Those who oppose these individuals are sent to institutions for re-education. It is forbidden to name these names; they are untouchable.
  21. +3
    11 May 2024 21: 01
    The answer to the question asked in the title of the article is very simple and is contained in a letter from the head of the operational department of the headquarters of the 33rd Army, Colonel I. A. Tolkonyuk addressed to I. V. Stalin dated March 30.03.1944, 1943. on the analysis of the unsuccessful actions of the army during the offensive battles of late 1944 - early XNUMX.
    Direct quote:

    ...the main reason was that forces and resources were spent on trifles, instead of a serious and crushing blow, “pin pricks” were inflicted on the enemy, from which he very quickly recovered, material resources were also spent on trifles, in parts, and could not give a serious result.
    If you hit a person with a log, then he will certainly be killed, but if this log is dismembered into chips and the same person is beaten at different times with these chips, then he will easily endure these blows and will not lose his vitality at all.

    It was written 80 years ago, but it seems to be about today.
  22. +1
    11 May 2024 22: 13
    didn’t they start the faq in 14?!” the generation of Nazi freaks hasn’t grown up yet