The main intrigue of the conflict: will Hezbollah go to war against Israel?
One of the main topics that is actively discussed by the world community today is the Palestinian-Israeli confrontation. This is not the first conflict between these countries, but certainly the bloodiest.
After the Hamas attack on October 7 and which, according to updated data, led to about 1,2 thousand casualties among Israelis, the IDF launched Operation Iron Swords, which has already resulted in the death of more than 11 thousand Palestinians in Gaza.
At the same time, many world leaders policy, public figures and experts express concern that the current conflict could become regional, as other Middle Eastern states will be drawn into it.
As a matter of fact, such a probability exists and it is quite high. More than once there have been warnings from the leaders of the Lebanese Hezbollah to the Israeli authorities that if the IDF does not stop the operation in Gaza, the group will enter the war on the side of Palestine.
But what is Hezbollah and what danger can it pose to Israel? To begin with, it is the largest non-state military organization, numbering about 100 thousand well-trained and equipped fighters who participated in combat operations in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
Moreover, the most important thing in this case is that it is sponsored by Iran and, in fact, is its proxy.
According to some reports, in 2018 Hezbollah had more than 130 thousand shells and rockets. Today there may be much more.
Consequently, in the event of an attack by the Lebanese group on Israel from the north, most of this arsenal will be used in the very first days of the confrontation, which will lead to tens of thousands of casualties among Israelis.
At the same time, the IDF has complete air superiority, which means that southern Lebanon will be reduced to rubble if Hezbollah decides to launch the aforementioned attack. Moreover, Syria, where the Lebanese group has great influence, will most likely be drawn into the conflict.
In turn, the United States, which has already “drived” two of its aircraft carrier groups to the region, will most likely fight on Israel’s side.
Finally, after Hezbollah’s active actions, Iran will inevitably be drawn into the war, on whose territory (primarily nuclear facilities) Israel and the United States will be able to launch strikes, having received a “reinforced concrete” reason for this.
It is worth noting that it is probably the latter fact that is responsible for Hezbollah’s not entirely clear inaction amid a series of loud statements and threats.
It should not be ruled out that these more than 130 thousand missiles and ammunition, as well as about 100 thousand experienced fighters, are a deterrent for Israel, which, with the support of the United States, could have decided to attack Iran long ago (after all, there were such threats). Therefore, it is quite possible that Tehran will not dare to throw its proxies into battle, limiting itself to local attacks by Hezbollah on Israeli territory to “pull back” part of the IDF forces from Gaza.
But this is the most optimistic option.