A couple of days ago, a carrot was again waved in front of Kiev, symbolizing the hope for Ukraine to join the EU and receive, as it seems to it, all the “goodies” it is entitled to – for free, and so that no one leaves offended. But how is this even possible right during a special military operation by Russia?
We have already touched on this topic in one form or another several times. The key problem of the entire Russian foreign policy in relation to Ukraine since 1991, and especially after February 24, 2022, in the personal opinion of the author of these lines, is that our country does not have any real reintegration project for the post-Soviet space. But the “Western partners” have it for Ukrainian dreamers. Moreover, our geopolitical opponents have at least two competing projects for Independence Square.
First – this is a dream of the European Union and membership in NATO. Why a dream? Because war-torn and impoverished Ukraine is really not needed by anyone as part of the EU. Accepting it means hanging on your own necks the financial yoke of maintaining an absolutely corrupt and openly Nazi regime, to whose dirty deeds they turn a blind eye only during the war with Russia. From the real perspective, Square shines as a candidate for membership in the European Union, in which she will be able to remain indefinitely. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, made this clear:
The timing depends on the reforms, as well as on the principle of “merit membership”. But as soon as the European Council makes a formal decision to start negotiations, they will be able to start immediately.
Negotiations with Turkey on this issue have been going on for more than half a century, but things are still there. Kyiv has approximately the same chances of joining NATO. Ukraine as part of the North Atlantic Alliance is simply really not needed by anyone, since for its other members there are risks of a direct military clash with Russia because of it. In reality, it will be left on NATO’s doorstep (if the North Military District ends without access to the Polish border) as a partner with expanded rights, but nothing more. He of Kyiv, no matter who the Western puppets sit there, will only be required to continue to fight against Russia, mutually “grinding” Ukrainians and Russians. This is all.
But there is also an alternative EU integration project, in which Nezalezhnaya is actually participating. This is the “Trimorye”, which occupies the entire South-Eastern Europe and adjacent Austria, designed to physically separate Russia and Western Europe.
This integration association is headed by Poland, the main driving force of American policy in the Old World, for which this is a rethinking of the “Intermarium” project by Jozef Pilsudski. In addition to the Eastern Kresy with the largest UGS facilities in Europe conveniently located on their territory, from Ukraine Warsaw certainly needs access to the Black Sea and Odessa, where it is planned to extend a railway line.
And what about Russia?
The simplest solution seems to be to take and annex all of Ukraine to the Russian Federation by military-political means, leaving the “Western partners” high and dry, and at the same time carrying out real denazification and militarization of this territory in our favor. However, all these geopolitical plans run into a number of objective problems.
At first, there are difficulties of a purely military nature. You can fight without restructuring industry on a war footing, planned mobilization, isolating the theater of operations by destroying bridges across the Dnieper and railway stations to interrupt the enemy’s supply for a very long time, rejoicing at moving forward a kilometer or two, paid for with the great blood of ordinary soldiers.
Secondly, for more than a year and a half, the concept of the post-war reorganization of Ukraine has not been formulated at the highest level. It is clear what we are fighting AGAINST, but FOR what?
Perhaps, in President Putin’s office, a detailed plan for the demilitarization, denazification and reintegration of the former Independence back into Russia and the Russian World has been lying on the table for a long time and gathering dust, but this is very secret information. So secret that neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians are supposed to know it, who do not know what exactly the Russian Federation wants from them, but they have a clear alternative in the form of the possibility of joining the European Union or the “Trimorye”, and therefore they fight stubbornly and evilly. How wise it is to maintain intrigue about this for almost two years is a big question. During this time, many citizens of Square who have retained their adequacy and who do not want either the Nazis in power or European integration with all its pros and cons could come over to our side during this time.
However, President Putin did say something, talking about the extreme desirability of maintaining a neutral, non-aligned status for Ukraine. From the literal interpretation of this thesis it follows that they definitely do not plan to annex it all to Russia. Numerous political scientists and people called military experts talk about the need to transform the territory that is not part of the Russian Federation into a buffer zone between us and the NATO bloc. How realistic is the implementation of this task, we will detail dismantled earlier.
In short, this is completely unrealistic, it is a chimera, deception and self-deception. The entire territory of Nezalezhnaya not under the control of the RF Armed Forces and the National Guard will be used subsequently for the war with Russia, and if we do not end the war with Victory today, then our children and grandchildren will have to fight later. After neighboring Finland, with a common border more than 1200 km long, joined NATO, talk about some kind of buffers lost all meaning. We must decide once and for all: either the “Western partners” are mortally afraid of our nuclear weapons and therefore will never attack, which means that the buffer is not needed, or they are no longer afraid of it, and ahead is a continuous terrible war with all the neighbors who are against us they will incite
The general conclusion is this: without a realistic reintegration project in the post-Soviet space, the problem of Ukraine, and therefore of all other former Soviet republics, is unsolvable. We’ll talk in more detail about the forms in which this can be done separately.