The Kuril issue is actually resolved: Russia is losing two islands
According to Russian news agencies and Japanese media, negotiations between Russia and Japan on a peace treaty have passed into technical phase.
At a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Japanese Prime Minister agreed on a new mechanism to solve the problem of a peace treaty between the two countries.
Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Igor Morgulov and Deputy Foreign Minister of Japan Takeo Mori have been appointed special representatives negotiating a peace treaty. The foreign ministers of Russia and Japan, Sergey Lavrov and Taro Kono, will oversee the work of the special representatives.
As expected, before the next visit of Shinzo Abe to Russia, if there is such an opportunity, it is planned to hold a meeting between the Foreign Ministers - Sergey Lavrov and Taro Kono.
The Russian Foreign Ministry noted that changing the format of the negotiations is not radically new, it is only a matter of clarifying this format.
Nevertheless, the appointment of two special representatives means that the leaders of Russia and Japan are the main political The decision was made, and now the issue can be referred to technical specialists.
The essence of the political decision is that Russia and Japan agreed to act in the spirit of the well-known 1956 Declaration, according to which Russia (in Article 9 of the Declaration - USSR) “in meeting the wishes of Japan and taking into account the interests of the Japanese state, agrees to transfer the Habomai Islands and Shikotan Islands to Japan with the fact, however, that the actual transfer of these islands to Japan will be made after the conclusion of a peace treaty. ”
Earlier, Japan objected to proposals to first conclude a peace treaty, and only then proceed to discuss issues of disputed territories. Actually, this is the political progress - the parties returned to the positions indicated by them before the aggravation of Russian-Japanese relations that arose as a result of Japan's conclusion of an agreement on defense cooperation with the United States.
However, the Japanese newspaper Mainity, announcing the appointment of special representatives, stipulates that it will be necessary to resolve issues raised by the Russian president, in particular, the number and conditions of transfer of the islands, as well as which country will have sovereignty over them, and what to do with the problem possible deployment of US military bases on the transferred territory.
Recall that previously, the Asahi Japanese newspaper reported on Shinzo Abe’s promise to Vladimir Putin not to deploy US military bases on the disputed Kuril Islands if they are handed over to Japan.
Apparently, Vladimir Putin and Shinzo Abe concluded a "gentleman's agreement" - to act in the spirit of the 1956 Declaration, and to implement its article 9 in full, if public opinion of the two countries allows.
In this form, a compromise is a concession on both sides - Moscow agrees to transfer the islands of Habomai and Shikotan, and Tokyo withdraws claims about Fr. Iturup and Fr. Kunashir.
The main problem here is public opinion in both countries. The Russians would not want to transfer any of the disputed islands to Japan at all, and the official position of the Russian Foreign Ministry is based on this - these territories are under the sovereignty of Russia, and the Japanese would like to delimit on the Kuril ridge according to the treatise of 1855, that is, to get the Habomai islands, and about. Shikotan, and about. Iturup, and about. Kunashir.
An interesting question is which country will have sovereignty over the islands of Habomai and Fr. Shikotan, initiated by Vladimir Putin, when he commented on the contents of the 1956 Declaration.
From international practice, in addition to the most obvious answers “of course, Russia”, or “of course, Japan”, more exotic forms are known, such as co-ownership (condominium), the so-called "Free territory" under international control (well, for example, like the "free territory of Trieste" that existed some time after the Second World War, a demilitarized zone, leaving the islands under Russian sovereignty, but transferring them to Japan for 99 years, transferring the islands to Japanese sovereignty and conclusion of an agreement on leasing them by Russia for 99 years, etc.
In the end, the form in which the "gentlemen's agreement" can be implemented is not so important. Another thing is much more important - but why does Russia need it at all, given that neither the country's population, nor political parties and the movement to transfer the disputed territories of Japan do not want, and the peace treaty is not so necessary, since the state of war between Moscow and Tokyo has already been terminated by the same 1956 Declaration?
Neither now nor in the short term does Russia need this in any way. If since August 1945, Japan has quietly coexisted with Russia, without the possession of the “Northern Territories”, most likely, it will do just as well without these few rocky patches of land washed by the ocean.
However, how long will Japan survive as a pro-American puppet state? Although this definition is probably offensive to the Japanese, now both the EU and Japan are sitting under the American strategic umbrella and are generally independent, depending on Washington.
At the same time, a tendency toward separation from the US and NATO is gaining strength in Europe, and over time, with a horizon of 50-75 years, the EU will likely become an independent world center of power. The same reasoning applies to Japan, and then the question arises - how friendly will a truly independent powerful Japan be to Russia?
However, Japan, which settled the territorial issue with Russia to mutual satisfaction, if it leaves the American strategic umbrella (and then it ceases to be “pro-American”), represents a potentially very advantageous international factor for Russia, perhaps an interesting regional partner, partly as a counterbalance China, partly as opposed to the United States.
At a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Japanese Prime Minister agreed on a new mechanism to solve the problem of a peace treaty between the two countries.
Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Igor Morgulov and Deputy Foreign Minister of Japan Takeo Mori have been appointed special representatives negotiating a peace treaty. The foreign ministers of Russia and Japan, Sergey Lavrov and Taro Kono, will oversee the work of the special representatives.
As expected, before the next visit of Shinzo Abe to Russia, if there is such an opportunity, it is planned to hold a meeting between the Foreign Ministers - Sergey Lavrov and Taro Kono.
The Russian Foreign Ministry noted that changing the format of the negotiations is not radically new, it is only a matter of clarifying this format.
Nevertheless, the appointment of two special representatives means that the leaders of Russia and Japan are the main political The decision was made, and now the issue can be referred to technical specialists.
The essence of the political decision is that Russia and Japan agreed to act in the spirit of the well-known 1956 Declaration, according to which Russia (in Article 9 of the Declaration - USSR) “in meeting the wishes of Japan and taking into account the interests of the Japanese state, agrees to transfer the Habomai Islands and Shikotan Islands to Japan with the fact, however, that the actual transfer of these islands to Japan will be made after the conclusion of a peace treaty. ”
Earlier, Japan objected to proposals to first conclude a peace treaty, and only then proceed to discuss issues of disputed territories. Actually, this is the political progress - the parties returned to the positions indicated by them before the aggravation of Russian-Japanese relations that arose as a result of Japan's conclusion of an agreement on defense cooperation with the United States.
However, the Japanese newspaper Mainity, announcing the appointment of special representatives, stipulates that it will be necessary to resolve issues raised by the Russian president, in particular, the number and conditions of transfer of the islands, as well as which country will have sovereignty over them, and what to do with the problem possible deployment of US military bases on the transferred territory.
Recall that previously, the Asahi Japanese newspaper reported on Shinzo Abe’s promise to Vladimir Putin not to deploy US military bases on the disputed Kuril Islands if they are handed over to Japan.
Apparently, Vladimir Putin and Shinzo Abe concluded a "gentleman's agreement" - to act in the spirit of the 1956 Declaration, and to implement its article 9 in full, if public opinion of the two countries allows.
In this form, a compromise is a concession on both sides - Moscow agrees to transfer the islands of Habomai and Shikotan, and Tokyo withdraws claims about Fr. Iturup and Fr. Kunashir.
The main problem here is public opinion in both countries. The Russians would not want to transfer any of the disputed islands to Japan at all, and the official position of the Russian Foreign Ministry is based on this - these territories are under the sovereignty of Russia, and the Japanese would like to delimit on the Kuril ridge according to the treatise of 1855, that is, to get the Habomai islands, and about. Shikotan, and about. Iturup, and about. Kunashir.
An interesting question is which country will have sovereignty over the islands of Habomai and Fr. Shikotan, initiated by Vladimir Putin, when he commented on the contents of the 1956 Declaration.
From international practice, in addition to the most obvious answers “of course, Russia”, or “of course, Japan”, more exotic forms are known, such as co-ownership (condominium), the so-called "Free territory" under international control (well, for example, like the "free territory of Trieste" that existed some time after the Second World War, a demilitarized zone, leaving the islands under Russian sovereignty, but transferring them to Japan for 99 years, transferring the islands to Japanese sovereignty and conclusion of an agreement on leasing them by Russia for 99 years, etc.
In the end, the form in which the "gentlemen's agreement" can be implemented is not so important. Another thing is much more important - but why does Russia need it at all, given that neither the country's population, nor political parties and the movement to transfer the disputed territories of Japan do not want, and the peace treaty is not so necessary, since the state of war between Moscow and Tokyo has already been terminated by the same 1956 Declaration?
Neither now nor in the short term does Russia need this in any way. If since August 1945, Japan has quietly coexisted with Russia, without the possession of the “Northern Territories”, most likely, it will do just as well without these few rocky patches of land washed by the ocean.
However, how long will Japan survive as a pro-American puppet state? Although this definition is probably offensive to the Japanese, now both the EU and Japan are sitting under the American strategic umbrella and are generally independent, depending on Washington.
At the same time, a tendency toward separation from the US and NATO is gaining strength in Europe, and over time, with a horizon of 50-75 years, the EU will likely become an independent world center of power. The same reasoning applies to Japan, and then the question arises - how friendly will a truly independent powerful Japan be to Russia?
However, Japan, which settled the territorial issue with Russia to mutual satisfaction, if it leaves the American strategic umbrella (and then it ceases to be “pro-American”), represents a potentially very advantageous international factor for Russia, perhaps an interesting regional partner, partly as a counterbalance China, partly as opposed to the United States.
- Nikolay Kuzyaev
- https://thousandwonders.net/
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